Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
"As you can see in the below diagram, Microsoft has multiple sources of income, and WP doesn't really bring in any noticeable income."
Are you for real? Just cos it doesn't bring in current income it should be neglected by MSFT?? WP8 on smartphones is their last stand to prevent being further marginalised as PC's fade.
MSFT will do EVERYTHING to ensure WP8 is the third viable and common smartphone O/S
The ability of a country to issue debt in its domestic currency to foreigners has, and always will be, used until abused. The term is seigniorage.
As alluded to by the article, one of the greatest assets possessed by the US is the dollar, not as a conduit to buying US goods/services but as THE undisputed global reserve currency; it serves as an international store of value and a global transaction medium.
Most dollar bears have been utterly beaten by the greenback as this "extrinsic" value cannot be captured by fundamental trade/capital statistics.
However if there was a time when the stars were aligned for a $ correction, it is nigh. As the Euroland debt problem slides off the centrestage, my bet is the $ is the next domino that those evil covert hedge fund managers will attack. And packs have a way of achieving their desired outcome.
Salesforce.com: Party Like It's 1999 - Update [View article]
Tim, excellent summary of this stock. As SA readers know, I'm a long-time bear, and sorely hurting as a result. In a word, this is the most perverse valuation i have encountered in a 20 year (successful) investment career.
You are spot on, in saying it is the tapping of equity markets that keeps this alive in cashflow; it's insidious, but the share creep, of about 3% pa of shares issued to employees keeps this mirage alive. And that is the 'secret sauce' that allows the virtuous bubble to inflate.
The fact that it is not accounted for in their absurd definition of earnings, that it is included in cashflow from operations, is simply laughable.
Yet the broker mafia prop it up, the large institutions play along.
I should abandon my short. cut my losses. But I cant. It would violate everything I know about shares and valuations, an understanding garnered over 3 decades. So I wont.
I wish i was less stubborn. Actually I'm glad I'm not.
Nokia Results: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly [View article]
Jacob your statement about revenue in China is wrong. what you quote is the yoy decline which admittedly is massive. However, on a sequential basis, rev was up 20%, although units were down 26%. this obviously means sales of higher value smartphones. You had me worried, as they have been reported to start selling smartphones with the 2 large carriers.
Bears Say Nokia's Products Are Obsolete; Consumers Disagree [View article]
Jacob, dont know if you saw the Bernstein piece in Barron's on Nokia.
Utter garbage. Apple fanboys dominate the US stockmarket and appl/nok share prices currently reflect that. Well until reality and new market shares in a year kick in.
After a lull from being numero uno on phones 5 yrs ago, Nokia is back. With a kick ass phone backed with 2 decades of experience, 30,000 patents. And this moronic analyst disparages it based on 1 qtr? It’s laughable. It will take time to gain traction. Nokia is the world’s largest cell phone brand, bar 1 qtr where Samsung upstaged it. Short sightedness by market? NO, myopia by market. This analyst will eat his iphone in one year.
The ‘analyst’ makes no mention of windows transition from 7 to 8 OS. This will be all signed and sealed by 4q 2012 ie 6 months away. And this uncertainty is clearly affecting current sa
“No room for a 3rd ecosystem” 500million phones sold a year and “No room for a 3rd ecosystem”? And that to be initiated by the software company that DOMINATES the corporate desktop/laptop/server market? What kind of hallucinogenic drug is this Bernstein analyst on? I want some!
U.S. Debt Default, Dollar Collapse Altogether Likely [View article]
A humble observation that refutes your admittedly plausible conclusion: In 2008, the year par excellance of quantitative easing, when Federal Reserve Bank Credit exploded from $1Tr to $2.2 Tr (ie issued more liabilities in one year than the cumulative total since time immemorial), why did the US 10 yr Treasury yield actually decline? (4% to 2.4%)
Surely if this monetary explosion presages a default, bond investors would demand a higher premium to hold this 'risk-free' asset. Dollar doomsters have predicted 10 of the last dollar crashes in the last decade; alas there has been one minor correction.
In my humble opinion, the problem is: what is there to crash against. Gold? Too tiny to replace the greenback as the global store of value. Real estate or hard assets? Rather yours than mine. The Euro? Sure if we can find any constancy between increasingly divergent EU states, some on the verge of default themselves.
Tis a skewed world indeed, where apparently obvious conclusions merit much closer scrutiny.
Ebix Shareholders Are Getting A Raw Deal [View article]
Despite empathising with Raina's frustrations on the stream of rumour mongering by the shorts, (aided by Bloomberg and their unidentified sources 'with close knowledge of the matter'), the takeout price is a huge disservice to the company's long suffering loyal investors.
Raina may be justified in taking it private, but this is one helluva kick in the teeth as a parting gesture to his loyal supporters.
Maybe, just maybe, he wont receive a majority shareholder approval of the merger. He certainly wont recieve mine.
Nokia Results: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly [View article]
From their disclosure statement, page 7: "On a sequential basis, net sales decreased in all regions except Greater China where the increase was primarily due to our Smart Devices business unit"
Can Nokia Earn 1 Euro ($1.30 US) Per Share In 2014? Absolutely! [View article]
thanks for comments guys - article took a lot of work, as did the factfinding in piecing together a model from their incredibly complex earnings disclosures.
I agree the move from 6.6m lumias in 4q 2012 to 127m in 2014 is a formidable challenge. They have a year to shape up! I wont hold a lot of faith for the next 2 quarters in ramping up, but they are perfectly capable of achieving this. Note in 2012 they produced and distributed (globally) 300m mobile phones, so it's perfectly achievable!! And now they have Microsoft coat tails to swing from too.
Analysts Start Attacking Nokia Again [View article]
$NOK Nokia's Asha a huge hit in India: "Rivals say wrong in positioning touch phone series as a smartphone" There's a silly semantic battle if the Asha is a smart or dumb phone, but it's selling like hot somosas!
Lumia 920 Is Facing Solid Demand In Europe [View article]
watch this end positive even after the apple fanboys/hedgies try and pummel it down. results were fantastic, showing a net profit despite having no smartphones! Imagine the profitability kick in when lumia kicks ass. for 2013 Nokia can make 1bn$ at a steady state. Current enterprise value: $6bn. Strong buy!
Why Do Investors Continue to Overpay for Popular Stocks? [View article]
great article. momentum "ought" to follow intrinsic value, but today momentum follows momentum; hence the absurd valuations. The momo game does reward its followers, month after month, quarter after quarter....until bang, the spectacular reversion to intrinsic value.
As I learnt at great expense (short CRM and continue to be totally bewildered), "ought" is an expensive word in markets. However the higher it goes the further it falls, and in age of easy credit, markets WILL become rational before I go insolvent!
Does the World Economy Have a Debt Wish? [View article]
Great piece. One issue. Govt profligacy seems to be THE vogue at the moment, endorsed and accelerated by electorates who are hooked on living beyond their means. It's a global phenomenon.
And on a larger perspective:The debt supercycle witnessed since WW2 continues to bound ahead, the baton now passed to the lender of last resort, the govt.
Why should it end? When should it end?
Case in point: If investors were fretting about sovereign risk, (the US is probably leading the fiscal debauchery today), why isnt this evident in bond yields or even the US Dollar?
I think the answer lies in the interconnectedness of the world; the highly convenient new paradigm between the Eastern Savers and the Western Squanderers. It is in no-one's interest to disrupt the current, admittedly highly fragile equilibrium.
And thus logical outcomes deduced in isolation may not manifest in a larger ecosystem.
We can all say the current trajectory is unsustainable. The challenge is to identify WHEN the status quo will change.
Can Nokia Earn 1 Euro ($1.30 US) Per Share In 2014? Absolutely! [View article]
1Q 13 update:
Actually the main swing in Devices segment (the one with the major earnings potential) was twofold: -a decline in mobile or dumb phones. yes slightly worrying, due to seasonality and intense chinese competition; - a massive fall in IPR. I estimate IPR income recorded in 4q 12 was 161m euros, whereas it was 28m euros in 1q 13. They have stated the run rate will fluctuate, but will be 500m euros a year.
So the street negative reaction is virtually all to do with this seasonal variability in booking.
In the next few days this will be revealed. Major positive is that gross margins in both phone segments rose, and the opex they had in qtr (this division) was 711m down drastically.
As for NSN, there is massive seasonality in 1 q, so this is not a huge disappointment.
High Conviction: This Hard Drive Maker Will Outshine the Competition [View article]
Jeffrey, good pick. WDC is a stock I have followed for a while (the industry longer) and I am totally convinced they are the better management (than STX). Although not paying a dividend, a share buyback is authorised, ready to go- I am confident the Mar qtr's release will reveal more bought.
WDC, and the industry, have a tailwind for the first time in about a decade, from supplier consolidation and the corporate upgrade of desktops due to Microsoft's Windows 7.
$70 bucks a share is my near-term target, fuelled by earnings and earnings surprises.
Question: if you like this, what else do you like?
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
Are you for real? Just cos it doesn't bring in current income it should be neglected by MSFT?? WP8 on smartphones is their last stand to prevent being further marginalised as PC's fade.
MSFT will do EVERYTHING to ensure WP8 is the third viable and common smartphone O/S
Dutch Disease and the U.S. Dollar [View article]
As alluded to by the article, one of the greatest assets possessed by the US is the dollar, not as a conduit to buying US goods/services but as THE undisputed global reserve currency; it serves as an international store of value and a global transaction medium.
Most dollar bears have been utterly beaten by the greenback as this "extrinsic" value cannot be captured by fundamental trade/capital statistics.
However if there was a time when the stars were aligned for a $ correction, it is nigh. As the Euroland debt problem slides off the centrestage, my bet is the $ is the next domino that those evil covert hedge fund managers will attack. And packs have a way of achieving their desired outcome.
Salesforce.com: Party Like It's 1999 - Update [View article]
You are spot on, in saying it is the tapping of equity markets that keeps this alive in cashflow; it's insidious, but the share creep, of about 3% pa of shares issued to employees keeps this mirage alive. And that is the 'secret sauce' that allows the virtuous bubble to inflate.
The fact that it is not accounted for in their absurd definition of earnings, that it is included in cashflow from operations, is simply laughable.
Yet the broker mafia prop it up, the large institutions play along.
I should abandon my short. cut my losses. But I cant. It would violate everything I know about shares and valuations, an understanding garnered over 3 decades. So I wont.
I wish i was less stubborn. Actually I'm glad I'm not.
Nokia Results: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly [View article]
However, on a sequential basis, rev was up 20%, although units were down 26%. this obviously means sales of higher value smartphones.
You had me worried, as they have been reported to start selling smartphones with the 2 large carriers.
Bears Say Nokia's Products Are Obsolete; Consumers Disagree [View article]
dont know if you saw the Bernstein piece in Barron's on Nokia.
Utter garbage.
Apple fanboys dominate the US stockmarket and appl/nok share prices currently reflect that. Well until reality and new market shares in a year kick in.
RE Bernstein on Nokia in Barrons
http://bit.ly/MpB4dR
After a lull from being numero uno on phones 5 yrs ago, Nokia is back. With a kick ass phone backed with 2 decades of experience, 30,000 patents. And this moronic analyst disparages it based on 1 qtr? It’s laughable. It will take time to gain traction. Nokia is the world’s largest cell phone brand, bar 1 qtr where Samsung upstaged it.
Short sightedness by market? NO, myopia by market. This analyst will eat his iphone in one year.
The ‘analyst’ makes no mention of windows transition from 7 to 8 OS. This will be all signed and sealed by 4q 2012 ie 6 months away. And this uncertainty is clearly affecting current sa
“No room for a 3rd ecosystem” 500million phones sold a year and “No room for a 3rd ecosystem”? And that to be initiated by the software company that DOMINATES the corporate desktop/laptop/server market?
What kind of hallucinogenic drug is this Bernstein analyst on? I want some!
U.S. Debt Default, Dollar Collapse Altogether Likely [View article]
Surely if this monetary explosion presages a default, bond investors would demand a higher premium to hold this 'risk-free' asset. Dollar doomsters have predicted 10 of the last dollar crashes in the last decade; alas there has been one minor correction.
In my humble opinion, the problem is: what is there to crash against. Gold? Too tiny to replace the greenback as the global store of value. Real estate or hard assets? Rather yours than mine. The Euro? Sure if we can find any constancy between increasingly divergent EU states, some on the verge of default themselves.
Tis a skewed world indeed, where apparently obvious conclusions merit much closer scrutiny.
Ebix Shareholders Are Getting A Raw Deal [View article]
Raina may be justified in taking it private, but this is one helluva kick in the teeth as a parting gesture to his loyal supporters.
Maybe, just maybe, he wont receive a majority shareholder approval of the merger. He certainly wont recieve mine.
Nokia Results: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly [View article]
"On a sequential basis, net sales decreased in all regions except Greater China where the increase was primarily due to
our Smart Devices business unit"
Can Nokia Earn 1 Euro ($1.30 US) Per Share In 2014? Absolutely! [View article]
I agree the move from 6.6m lumias in 4q 2012 to 127m in 2014 is a formidable challenge. They have a year to shape up! I wont hold a lot of faith for the next 2 quarters in ramping up, but they are perfectly capable of achieving this. Note in 2012 they produced and distributed (globally) 300m mobile phones, so it's perfectly achievable!! And now they have Microsoft coat tails to swing from too.
Analysts Start Attacking Nokia Again [View article]
http://bit.ly/UTe6Bg
Lumia 920 Is Facing Solid Demand In Europe [View article]
Why Do Investors Continue to Overpay for Popular Stocks? [View article]
As I learnt at great expense (short CRM and continue to be totally bewildered), "ought" is an expensive word in markets. However the higher it goes the further it falls, and in age of easy credit, markets WILL become rational before I go insolvent!
Just watch.
Does the World Economy Have a Debt Wish? [View article]
And on a larger perspective:The debt supercycle witnessed since WW2 continues to bound ahead, the baton now passed to the lender of last resort, the govt.
Why should it end? When should it end?
Case in point: If investors were fretting about sovereign risk, (the US is probably leading the fiscal debauchery today), why isnt this evident in bond yields or even the US Dollar?
I think the answer lies in the interconnectedness of the world; the highly convenient new paradigm between the Eastern Savers and the Western Squanderers. It is in no-one's interest to disrupt the current, admittedly highly fragile equilibrium.
And thus logical outcomes deduced in isolation may not manifest in a larger ecosystem.
We can all say the current trajectory is unsustainable. The challenge is to identify WHEN the status quo will change.
Consider me your new follower.
Can Nokia Earn 1 Euro ($1.30 US) Per Share In 2014? Absolutely! [View article]
Actually the main swing in Devices segment (the one with the major earnings potential) was twofold:
-a decline in mobile or dumb phones. yes slightly worrying, due to seasonality and intense chinese competition;
- a massive fall in IPR. I estimate IPR income recorded in 4q 12 was 161m euros, whereas it was 28m euros in 1q 13. They have stated the run rate will fluctuate, but will be 500m euros a year.
So the street negative reaction is virtually all to do with this seasonal variability in booking.
In the next few days this will be revealed.
Major positive is that gross margins in both phone segments rose, and the opex they had in qtr (this division) was 711m down drastically.
As for NSN, there is massive seasonality in 1 q, so this is not a huge disappointment.
Conclusion: major BUY today.
High Conviction: This Hard Drive Maker Will Outshine the Competition [View article]
WDC, and the industry, have a tailwind for the first time in about a decade, from supplier consolidation and the corporate upgrade of desktops due to Microsoft's Windows 7.
$70 bucks a share is my near-term target, fuelled by earnings and earnings surprises.
Question: if you like this, what else do you like?