Amazon Falls, But Will It Continue? [View article]
@bill, You may remember our debate after your previous article on amzn, when your bullish stance was predicated on technical analysis and rising sales. I said:
"However you claim it will continue rising on a P/S ratio: when the profitability of incremental sales is declining? When net margins are approaching zero despite monumental capital injections? Just like technical analysis, it works until one day it doesn't. Ownership of shares is not ultimately predicated on sales, but on profits and a return back to the shareholder capital. AMZN may have become the worlds largest online retailer, and wiped out a whole swathe of brick and mortar companies, but it aint making any money. Even after wiping them out, the only way it will one day make real money is by raising prices to reflect fulfillment costs. So when AMZN does eventually try and make money (by raising prices) it will attract new entrants, B&M and online, attracted by the higher returns.
I'm looking forward to how this pans out: the recent disclosure of a revenue disappointment, a lower forecast, even further losses tells me the hour cometh."
That hour cometh? Technical support, the last bastion of Amazon bulls is breaking...
Can Nokia Earn 1 Euro ($1.30 US) Per Share In 2014? Absolutely! [View article]
IPR is the Intellectual Property Royalties they receive from their patent portfolio, which is included in the Devices Segment. You can work it out, as the sales from both divisions tie up exactly from ASP and units sold. I redid the calcs (error from first post, post results) and in 4q 2012 they had 330m euros of op profit NOT emanating from phone divisions; this came from IPR. In the 1q 2013 this figure was a mere 40m. Massive swing. Elop was unduly cautious last quarter, and mentioned this as the reason. Now I see why. That's why they clearly state that IPR income will be 500m a year, and its very seasonal. I think this is the reason the street is wrong to hammer Nok today...
Can Nokia Earn 1 Euro ($1.30 US) Per Share In 2014? Absolutely! [View article]
@cognitorex, I'm glad someone asked! Its available on Amazon and Lulu. "White Man's Numbers" has had excellent reviews here in South Africa, but how I access an international audience is still beyond me!
Please see website, for excerpt and acclaims here: http://bit.ly/SCormi Check out page 'where to buy' for links
Plea To Nokia: Improve Your Financial Statements! [View article]
@c24 and John Otismans, thank you for your endorsment! I'm a chartered accountant with substantial equity analysis experience and I must have read their recent report 24 times....My first title for this article was "Your Financial Statements resemble a Dog's Breakfast."
Nokia's share price is no longer a binary option on bankruptcy, it's about earnings leverage on smartphone market share. I sincerely hope Nokia's Board take note and present the results in a manner that permits rational analysis!
Nokia: So, How Are Lumia 920 Sales Going? [View article]
The Lumia 920 phone reviews and comments here point to an unequivocal winner.
As for the share price (as we all know the two trajectories diverge widely): NOK is the number 1 stock on Schwab's list of 100. ie Out of the 100 stocks they rank for upside, Nokia is currently numero uno. And Out of brokerage rating systems, I rate Schwab the best on a 2 year investment horizon.
Nokia Getting A Lot Of Heat For Filming A 'Fake' Ad [View article]
Jacob I totally agree. This will go down as one of the biggest blunders in their 145 year history. The ad was fraudulent AND misleading, and the post-mortem explanations wholly inadequate.
What could be done? The heads of senior people in charge of the ad, who endorsed it at the top, and line managers who saw the 'shooting' should be taken behind the shed and shot. Simple: fire them.
This is the only succinct message which could restore the company's integrity. Getting the public to believe in Nokia is a sine-qua-non, more important than any technology or commitment.
Apparently Elop rang their internal Ethics Officer as soon as he heard. Right now for Nokia, unless something dramatic is done, a Nokia Ethics Officer is a contradiction in terms.
Amazon.com's Bezos Continues To Create Long-Term Value [View article]
robert: " If costs would have risen by a similar 32%, operating profits for the first half of 2012 would have been $700 million higher. This would have boosted operating profits to $1.0 billion for the first half of 2012."
but they didnt. costs rose by a much higher % than revenue. What is your point.
Why Do Investors Continue to Overpay for Popular Stocks? [View article]
Does anyone else feel they make the best investment decisions when real life is falling apart, when the sun might never shine again.
AND thus it is entirely because of one's utterly incomprehensible mistakes?
well in that period of utter anguish I make my best investment decisions:
A cold sweat, deliberate fingers, an animal-threatened-with... like coolness grips the mind, shedding all emotion.
CRM is hyped- no not just hyped, it's a 4 sigma standard deviation hype.
The company is faking its figures (def rev 'growth' slipped via acquisitions), insiders are shedding shares like snakes shed skin, they rant on about rev growth, but alas there is NO operating leverage (co of 1.4 bn sales!!), they harp on about non-gaap eps whilst gaap eps is now forecast as a LOSS!
but most importantly those weird momo traders whose mantra is ''join the ride, but jump before thy neighbour' are seeing their trend lines and harps and shoulders being broken.
With a valuation argument very far below, and momo saying "oops time to get outta here", this is a moment to relish.
MY Real world could not get worse. Watch CRM collapse. "Yeah!" as a dear exfriend said.
Why It Makes Sense to Fear Greek Default [View article]
Hi Felix, great article.
If the ECB just prints more Euros, isnt this more problematic than the US FED? I mean what is their claim to assets? There isnt any direct recourse to EU countries, to raise taxes or sell govt land or a country's bandwith. Can someone please explain? Is it akin to the IMF issuing more SDRs?
Now I know the Fed balance sheet has exploded (from $1tr to $2tr in the last 3 yrs) but am I right in thinking they have a more legitimate claim to the country's underlying assets?
Just to trumpet MY foresight, quote from article above: "Judging by the initial reception of the Lumia 520 in emerging markets, it could easily be the bestselling smartphone in 2014."
Amazon - What If Valuation Mattered? [View article]
Financial gravity can be outdone temporarily, but will ultimately prevail.
Amazon Falls, But Will It Continue? [View article]
You may remember our debate after your previous article on amzn, when your bullish stance was predicated on technical analysis and rising sales. I said:
"However you claim it will continue rising on a P/S ratio: when the profitability of incremental sales is declining? When net margins are approaching zero despite monumental capital injections?
Just like technical analysis, it works until one day it doesn't. Ownership of shares is not ultimately predicated on sales, but on profits and a return back to the shareholder capital. AMZN may have become the worlds largest online retailer, and wiped out a whole swathe of brick and mortar companies, but it aint making any money. Even after wiping them out, the only way it will one day make real money is by raising prices to reflect fulfillment costs. So when AMZN does eventually try and make money (by raising prices) it will attract new entrants, B&M and online, attracted by the higher returns.
I'm looking forward to how this pans out: the recent disclosure of a revenue disappointment, a lower forecast, even further losses tells me the hour cometh."
That hour cometh? Technical support, the last bastion of Amazon bulls is breaking...
Can Nokia Earn 1 Euro ($1.30 US) Per Share In 2014? Absolutely! [View article]
Can Nokia Earn 1 Euro ($1.30 US) Per Share In 2014? Absolutely! [View article]
I'm glad someone asked! Its available on Amazon and Lulu.
"White Man's Numbers" has had excellent reviews here in South Africa, but how I access an international audience is still beyond me!
Please see website, for excerpt and acclaims here:
http://bit.ly/SCormi
Check out page 'where to buy' for links
And buy the friggin book!! :)
Plea To Nokia: Improve Your Financial Statements! [View article]
thank you for your endorsment!
I'm a chartered accountant with substantial equity analysis experience and I must have read their recent report 24 times....My first title for this article was "Your Financial Statements resemble a Dog's Breakfast."
Nokia's share price is no longer a binary option on bankruptcy, it's about earnings leverage on smartphone market share. I sincerely hope Nokia's Board take note and present the results in a manner that permits rational analysis!
Nokia: So, How Are Lumia 920 Sales Going? [View article]
As for the share price (as we all know the two trajectories diverge widely):
NOK is the number 1 stock on Schwab's list of 100. ie Out of the 100 stocks they rank for upside, Nokia is currently numero uno. And Out of brokerage rating systems, I rate Schwab the best on a 2 year investment horizon.
Also see this: Why Apple should suck Nokia onto its map
http://seekingalpha.co...
disc long NOK
Nokia Getting A Lot Of Heat For Filming A 'Fake' Ad [View article]
What could be done?
The heads of senior people in charge of the ad, who endorsed it at the top, and line managers who saw the 'shooting' should be taken behind the shed and shot. Simple: fire them.
This is the only succinct message which could restore the company's integrity. Getting the public to believe in Nokia is a sine-qua-non, more important than any technology or commitment.
Apparently Elop rang their internal Ethics Officer as soon as he heard. Right now for Nokia, unless something dramatic is done, a Nokia Ethics Officer is a contradiction in terms.
Amazon.com's Bezos Continues To Create Long-Term Value [View article]
" If costs would have risen by a similar 32%, operating profits for the first half of 2012 would have been $700 million higher. This would have boosted operating profits to $1.0 billion for the first half of 2012."
but they didnt.
costs rose by a much higher % than revenue.
What is your point.
Seagate Technology: A Sell As Hard Drive Shortage Easing And Valuations Dangerously High [View article]
Why Do Investors Continue to Overpay for Popular Stocks? [View article]
AND thus it is entirely because of one's utterly incomprehensible mistakes?
well in that period of utter anguish I make my best investment decisions:
A cold sweat, deliberate fingers, an animal-threatened-with... like coolness grips the mind, shedding all emotion.
CRM is hyped- no not just hyped, it's a 4 sigma standard deviation hype.
The company is faking its figures (def rev 'growth' slipped via acquisitions), insiders are shedding shares like snakes shed skin, they rant on about rev growth, but alas there is NO operating leverage (co of 1.4 bn sales!!), they harp on about non-gaap eps whilst gaap eps is now forecast as a LOSS!
but most importantly those weird momo traders whose mantra is ''join the ride, but jump before thy neighbour' are seeing their trend lines and harps and shoulders being broken.
With a valuation argument very far below, and momo saying "oops time to get outta here", this is a moment to relish.
MY Real world could not get worse. Watch CRM collapse.
"Yeah!" as a dear exfriend said.
A Sneak Peek at the (Ugly) End of the Story [View article]
Just One Stock: The Cloud Leader Due for a Return to Earth [View article]
-307 sale transactions by insiders in last 6m, no buys.
-Operating leverage far lower than other software cos as a large part of remuneration of salestaff is options/commission
-On a GAAP basis, after taking totally legitimate sales staff remuneration into account (options awarded) it sits on a FPE of 138.
How insane do you want to go?
Why It Makes Sense to Fear Greek Default [View article]
If the ECB just prints more Euros, isnt this more problematic than the US FED? I mean what is their claim to assets? There isnt any direct recourse to EU countries, to raise taxes or sell govt land or a country's bandwith. Can someone please explain? Is it akin to the IMF issuing more SDRs?
Now I know the Fed balance sheet has exploded (from $1tr to $2tr in the last 3 yrs) but am I right in thinking they have a more legitimate claim to the country's underlying assets?
Can Nokia Earn 1 Euro ($1.30 US) Per Share In 2014? Absolutely! [View article]
http://bit.ly/169gTNy
Just to trumpet MY foresight, quote from article above:
"Judging by the initial reception of the Lumia 520 in emerging markets, it could easily be the bestselling smartphone in 2014."
hat tip: @knowitall
The Fall Of Nokia Continues [View article]
This is very unlikely, as it would amount to 135m X10 =1.3bn $ for 2012, whereas Nokia's total ipr is $500m pa. Where did u get your estimate from?