Sunil Shah

Microsoft: Free Cash Flow Analysis

Thanks for response Peter. But the answer to your question: "The question I ask every company I analyze is "how much return (in percent) in FCF are you going to give me for every dollar of total capital you invest?"

...would be seriously distorted for a company with significant cash on bal sht- particularly when two yrs ago it earned 4% and now close to 0... and these nos obviously reduce the FROIC.

Pl oh pls use this methodology for msft, and lets see what the real P/FCF is. It should be a relatively simple adjustment to your work.

thank you!

Microsoft: Free Cash Flow Analysis

nice work Peter!. but doesn't msft have net cash per share. do you subtract this from invested capital (ie enterprise capital). then you should do the calc above(strictly speaking, less interest earned on cash) to get FROIC and just subtract the cash per share as per bal sht from share price to compare valuations over time. Right? Your opinion would be appreciated. And your work again using this methodology!!

Why Is Marc Benioff Presenting at Oracle Open World?

I think it highly improbable that Oracle buys CRM. Why?

-L Ellison holds a personal stake and there would be huge dissent from shareholders
-It would negate Siebel acqtn, where ORCL has spent millions reconfiguring it as a SAAS entity also.
-The ridiculous premium on CRM's valuation, which can only be justified due to the takeout rumours flying about for the past 2+ years.

There is almost no way. The Oracle expo will finally unveil all the hype and the underlying reality of CRM. That's why it has been granted a pole position. But share keeps rising as half-baked rumours keep circulating. Market will take care of this in time.

Why Is Marc Benioff Presenting at Oracle Open World?

I think it highly improbable that Oracle buys CRM. Why?

-L Ellison holds a personal stake and there would be huge dissent from shareholders
-It would negate Siebel acqtn, where ORCL has spent millions reconfiguring it as a SAAS entity also.
-The ridiculous premium on CRM's valuation, which can only be justified due to the takeout rumours flying about for the past 2+ years.

There is almost no way. The Oracle expo will finally unveil all the hype and the underlying reality of CRM. That's why it has been granted a pole position. But share keeps rising as half-baked rumours keep circulating. Market will take care of this in time.