Sunil Shah's  Instablog

More pumped up than the World Cup Football!

I live in Cape Town and did some digging on the Saleforce claim of integrating the entire event via their 'multiple channels' via South African Tourism.

Their claim:

"The softest pillow in Joburg?
The customary tip?
The tastiest meal in Cape Town?
Within weeks, South African Tourism was live on multiple channels—phone, email, Web self-service, Twitter, and Facebook. Anything a visitor might want to know is immediately accessible. The nearest hotel to the stadium? Check. A great place to sample local cuisine? No problem. Details on tickets, transportation, even the best place to snag an autograph can all be shared in real time."

So I checked doing the following:

I emailed the SA tourism board (the CRM customer where their software was doing the magic above) to find out where I might input the available nights of my friend's guest house, to notify incoming tourists. Also asked who had vacancies during the semi final night in Cape Town

Answer: "We do not provide info of room vacancies. Please search the websites listed below for rooms and vacancies." Wow, that's invaluable.

I rang them to inquire where I might find a reputable italian restaurant.

Answer: They didnt know any specific one.

I asked to speak to the manager regarding the software they used.

He confirmed they had purchased 50 seats from CRM (price not divulged but he was sure he'd got a great discount off the listed price). Yes, they used it to log in calls, but there was no integration to email.  As for chatter/twitter he wasnt quite sure if they were using it or not, but his staff werent supporting it.  And at the moment they had 8 operators on their desk.  Their function: to pick up calls and if possible refer them to another website.  AND he laughed when I asked him where Ronaldo would be tonite so I could get his autograph.

I even spoke to a CRM sales manager of the EMEA region to enquire about their claims, as stated on the press release. "Not his problem." 


My point is this: The 'wonderful utility of CRM' in this instance could have been accomplished by an excel spreadsheet (comprising of a list of guesthouse weblinks and restaurants- hopefully with one italian one!) and 8 telephone extensions.  Granted, the benefits of the software depend on the user's sophistication, BUT it is disingenous at best and fraudulent at worst for Salesforce to make these claims without checking them up in any way.


Judging by the chasm between reality and the bombastic hyperbole on their press release, I have little doubt that the hot air in CRM's salesprice will soon come hissing out.

Disclosure: short CRM

Disclosure: short CRM

Disclosure: Long WDC

CRM: The debate between rational perfect markets and technicals. This might seem a digression, but I would love your technical opinion on one stock that has mystified me and any rational mind. CRM, trailing PE 168, forward 78 (that's non GAAP, 140 PE after options cost). One of Cramer's Candies, probably the most exorbitant valuation out there. One reason for its gravity-defying trajectory has been FMR (Fidelity MR) as a loyal and large supporter,the massive buyer of last resort. In April they hit 15% of outstanding shares owned. I reckon this is, for Fidelity, an internal ceiling for a mid cap stock (Mkt cap $11bn) as a prudential internal guideline (their ownership is spread amongst a number of fidelity funds). Very recently there seems to a big shift in the computer algorithm trading CRM. I am not a technical analyst but I would love your opinion. As for fundamentals, there is no rational basis, even after the most euphoric assumptions for this stock to be above $65 (current price $91 or a 30% extreme overvaluation).

So 2 questions:

-Could Fidelity have an internal ceiling as a group for owning a small stock?

-Has the trading pattern or technicals changed very recently for CRM?

Disclosure: short CRM