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Sunil Shah's  Instablog

Sunil Shah
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A fund manager who cut his cloth in Schroders London. He joined Coronation South Africa in 1998, running the Smaller Companies Fund which had the best 5-yr record in the sector during his tenure. In 2005 he left Coronation to pursue his passion in writing (and invest without constraints). He... More
My blog:
whitemansnumbers.com
My book:
White Man's Numbers
View Sunil Shah's Instablogs on:
  • Western Digital and Seagate. Irrationality personified.
    So lets see...3 qtrs of down production for wdc and it falls 15%, and stx is up  20%. In the long term, wdc has a superior earnings record, stable management, growing mkt share....should i go on? So 3 qtrs of a natural disaster blip leads to a devastation in share price, which i thought reflected earnings to perpetuity.
    Love this ludicrous mkt. but its irrationality makes for profit.

    disclosure: long WDC
    Oct 21 9:39 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Rumour Mongering on EBIX
    I have done more work on this company than any in my 20 year career.
    The rumour mongering is amazing. I cant even begin to identify the who's and why's

    But through their financial releases and annual reports, through serious digging, I conclude EBIX management have refuted

    EVERY yes every rumour about them: tax rates, subs with dodgy profit margins, intellectual property location, auditor confusion, margin expansion, client growth and retention rates...I could go on.

    Believe me I could go on. I have researched these rumours more than any company (invested successfully for 20 years) and they get an unqualified 5 star bill of health.

    disc: a significant part of my equity exposure is here, and despite the recent slide being painful, I am buying on the way down. COS i have never been more confident on a companys prospects, and this all backed by hard digging and research!

    disc: very long ebix
    Tags: EBIX
    Sep 30 12:00 AM | Link | 4 Comments
  • The Cloud and Hot Air and Frogs that dance with Dolphins
    Does anyone else feel they make the best investment decisions when real life is falling apart, when the sun might never shine again. AND it is thus entirely because of one's utterly incomprehensible mistakes?

    I do.

    Hence by irrefutable logic, CRM is down a heap tomorrow after earnings. Wont raise guidance again, trading mojos are fleeing cos the graph is sinking. (something about trendy trendlines, I gather...).  As for the PE and ANY valuation criteria, it's almost as ludicrous as the FED's policy decisions are insane.

    Real world could not get worse. Heavy downpour today. Time to swim out of the swamp of hot air in the cloud and back on planet earth.

    "Yeah!" as an exfriend said.

    dislcosure short CRM, Long Gold, 
    Aug 18 2:08 AM | Link | 2 Comments
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  • $HLF last qtr mgmt pumped the stock before horrible earnings. This qtr they are mum. depicts extent of disappointment in the offing...sell
    Feb 26, 2015
  • $CRM Marc-bend-my-ear-off wows psychophants again with his superlatives. Enough to make one lose faith in rational capital marekts. ouch
    Feb 26, 2015
  • $EBIX Fidelity FMR ups their stake from 8.4% to 10.7% as per latest filing. We are on a short squeeze from Nirvana now...21 days short ratio
    Feb 17, 2015
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