Seeking Alpha

Sunil Shah's  Instablog

Sunil Shah
Send Message
A fund manager who cut his cloth in Schroders London. He joined Coronation South Africa in 1998, running the Smaller Companies Fund which had the best 5-yr record in the sector during his tenure. In 2005 he left Coronation to pursue his passion in writing (and invest without constraints). He... More
My blog:
whitemansnumbers.com
My book:
White Man's Numbers: Excerpt Chapter 13
View Sunil Shah's Instablogs on:
  • Currency wars, the dollar and my question:

     

    Always good to have the consensus challenged.
     
    I can see the emerging  rationale that QE2, a sharp jump in broad money supply, should depress the dollar, but two questions:

    -why didnt QE1, where the fed bal sht went from $1tr to about $2tr in the space of 2ish years have a dramatic effect on the dollar? Isnt this in simple terms, a doubling of supply which should on a unitary elastic demand curve (keeping it naively simple) lead to a halving in the $ price? IS the answer 'there was a concommitant shift in the demand curve' to result in same'ish price? Is that evident from foreign ownership in $ assets?

    -Of the $1 or $2 tr that was QE1, how much found its way in an increase in broad money. My thinking is this: there was so much impairment in assets on bank bal sheets and non-bank finance cos, that a major part of the credit creation simply filled the holes left by the impairments, leading to a far smaller increase in M1 or M3, whatever is the deviant aggregate today.

    -it may well become more explicit in the FED's thinking, that a weakening dollar is in the national interest. But to what extent is this thinking beyond their control: if the rest of the world continues to demand dollars (cos there aint no realistic alternative!) why should the $ necessarily decline, even if the FED desires it?  So the new world order is such that a sovereign govt DOES NOT have autonomy over its currency, even if they do own the printing press!! Anyone got an answer to that?

     I would really appreciate thoughts on the above.

    Thank you


    Disclosure: no positions
    Oct 15 9:01 AM | Link | Comment!
  • WDC Some rationality re-entering the market!
    seagate buyout 20% premium! this is just the start! Finally the world finds some rationality!! It should spur WDC to recommence a buyback--Its so obvious MGMT should whipped, and the board should see this as a gross failing in ignoring value where others can see it. Long WDC for 2 years, finally!!

    Disclosure: long WDC, short CRM

    Disclosure: long wdc
    Oct 15 8:39 AM | Link | Comment!
  • No Brainer CRM buys Ebix

    IF Raina could accept to work 'under' Bend-my-ear-off Benioff, this acqtn makes perfect sense.

    CRM would have a lot more weight and gravitas to their hot air, a perfect leg in the insurance vertical and on a eps share basis, it would look like pure genius, even if the offer was a 100% premium.



    Disclosure: Long Ebix, Short CRM
    Sep 24 10:44 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • $CRM Billings growth (rev + def rev) has tanked from 28.5% YOY to 17%! This should fall fast! Even Bend-my-ear-off Benioff cant change that!
    2 days ago
  • $CRM Billings growth (rev + def rev) has tanked from 28.5% YOY to 17%! This should fall off a cliff! Even Bend-my-ear-off Benioff cant up it
    2 days ago
  • $CRM remember this classic video. I want to buy Salesforce.com "I dont care" http://bit.ly/15T4uhK
    May 17, 2013
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.