super-trades.com's  Instablog

Amcon Distributing (DIT) was a stock I blogged and bought on April 22, 2009 at $32.  At the time I said the Company would do $10-$12 EPS this year. They reported $10.87 of EPS from continuing operations. DIT hit $71.75, 143 days after my blog post, for a 124% gain so far from the blog post.

I believe I have found a stock with similar characteristics as DIT. I think this stock over 1-12 months could make a similar move as DIT based on similar EPS.

Warning - Stocks that have such a low float and number of shares outstanding can trade thin and be very volatile. They can drop several dollars on low volume. I never take large positions in such stocks and I always understand that they can be illiquid and have risks.

14 super-trades.com Stock Ideas Blogged in 2009 
Average Gain 111% 
Average Trading Days From Mention to Peak 47 Days
Range of Gains 45% to 257% 
Range of Trading Days From Mention to Peak 2 days to 143 days
13 of 14 still above original entry price (although I am not long term trader)

Read Detail:

http://super-trades.blogspot.com/2009/11/14-stocks-blogged-in-2009-average-gain.html

3 New stocks in progress TMI, EDS, IDI  :

http://super-trades.blogspot.com/2009/10/3-new-china-stocks-may-be-coming-to.html
 

TMI, a stock I recommended at $8 (upon approval of its business combination), only has a float of 752k by my research below:

TMI is forecasting to earn $42m this year which would equate to approximately $1.45 EPS fully diluted after the transaction. 

(23.9 outstanding + Treasury method on the warrants  >12.3m warrants X $5.50 conversion = 67.6m dollars divided by current market price $9.15 = 7.4m shares that could be bought back.  12.3m warrants - 7.4m treasury method buyback = 4.9m dillution on warrants.  $42m net income divided by 23.9m +4.9m fully diluted = $1.45 EPS)

A special purpose acquisition company, or (SPAC), (sometimes called a blank check company or an empty shell company), uses an initial public offering (IPO) to raise money it will use to purchase or merge with an existing company.

The acquisitions close after shareholder vote approval. It is not recommended to buy them prior to shareholder approval / acquisition close.  If they do not get an approved acquisition, SPAC's can sometimes liquidate and distribute cash back to shareholders.

There are 3 SPAC's about to conduct shareholder votes to purchase Chinese Companies:

1) TMI - TM Entertainment & Media, Inc.
Current Price : $7.50
Cash per last 10-Q - $81m
Current common O/S - 12.5m
Cash Per current common O/S = $6.48

China is facing a severe water crisis.  If present trends are not reversed, the World Bank forecasts that by 2020 there will be 30 million environmental refugees in China due to water stress.

MELA had a very interesting article in Barrons this weekend.  The success of this stock will depend on FDA approval, which is due by the end of the year.  It is an all or nothing trade (FDA approval stock could go up 50%, FDA denial stock would tank), but one worth researching.  Here is the Barron's article:

Taking Aim at Skin Cancer By NEIL A. MARTIN  

If approved by the FDA, the handheld MelaFind device made by Electro-Optical Sciences will revolutionize the way patients are screened for skin cancer. Look for earlier detection and fewer unnecessary biopsies. Video: Taking Aim at Skin Cancer
 
 
ONE OF THE MOST CRITICAL decisions a dermatologist can make is whether a mark on a patient's skin might be melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer. Until now, doctors have been forced to rely largely on their own vision, sometimes aided by a dermascope -- a hand-held magnifying glass with a light to illuminate the skin area -- to decide whether a spot or wart merits a biopsy. It involves a lot of guesswork -- and untold numbers of unnecessary biopsies.
 
"Skin cancer is approaching epidemic proportions," says Dr. Joseph V. Gulfo, chief executive of EOS. He thinks the company's new tool will boost the rate of early detections and reduce unnecessary biopsies.