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Suz Smith
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I am an equity/options/futures trader with a strong background in TA. I am passionate about the markets and love to empower other traders using an earning while learning strategy. I work for McElhenny Sheffield Capital Management, a private wealth management firm that specializes in real time,... More
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  • Market Thoughts/Plans 11-25-12

    This one is informal....

    My thoughts:

    1. SPY:

    I believe the move to the top of the channel - remember the target number was 1400, the overshoot number in my book was 1403-1404 & we hit 1407.50 - has been fulfilled and that the market was pushed up on NO volume. I believe we will be subject to a little overnight catch-up and hit 1410-1411 (Vachi/MTS & Wave Studies). Ultimately, the market will come back to pivot which is the middle BB 1390. So, THE PLAN is to hold the spy puts to 1390-1393 and I will be holding WITHOUT stops. We are up +67 in 3 sessions. We DO NOT buy long into this tomorrow, we wait patiently for our 1390-1393. That covers our index trade. I am validated in this by my charts, as well as the traders I generally observe taking major hedges on Friday. We are looking at a 20 point move down which will equivalent to about -$1.50-2.00 in spy, so we go back to $138ish which is the 38.2% fib from the most recent high, and a nice normal shallow retracement in order to get the rest of the gang long. Our spy puts will do well in this scenario (Dec 140's just for the flip).

    (click to enlarge)

    2. AAPL:

    Along with the indices, AAPL is extended. As channel checks appear to be solid and that AAPL is again the hot Christmas gift, we can be prepared to hold these back to at least $575-580 if not $600.

    (click to enlarge)

    3. V:

    This has been on a stellar run, and looks to be starting to walk the upper band. It is overbought right now, and with the "impending" trip down to /ES 1393-1393, we want to sell bull put spreads, and buy a call at the same time. See the chart for details.

    (click to enlarge)

    5. HDB:

    Currently is #1 stock on IBD meaning it should have nice follow-through momentum. Take this one in common. I've been watching this for weeks….this stock is a buy up to $41.50 NO HIGHER, then we let it ride. Once Extended cover it with a call. I believe it has $4 or so upside.

    (click to enlarge)

    6. KORS: Another IBD darling, it has already made its correction, and we should sell naked puts for Dec $45. AND, purchase Jan $50 calls for $3.00 or less (remember we are doing all moves on pullback to 1390-1393.

    (click to enlarge)

    Suz

    @suzyq76022

    Proud member of: www.mrtopstep.com/op/

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in KORS, HDB over the next 72 hours.

    Additional disclosure: I am short SPY, long V common, AAPL call spreads and bull put spreads.Disclaimer: MSCM and/or I may or may not have a position in this stock which may or may not be exited without advance notice. Data is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not offered as investment advice. Timing of transactions can be critical to the success of a position. MSCM, its employees or owners shall not be liable for any errors or delay in the content, or for any action taken in reliance on any content provided within. Opinions expressed here are the sole opinions of the author and not representative of any firm view.

    Nov 25 9:38 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Webinar Moved Due To Hurricane Sandy

    Hi All,

    The OptionsPro webinar has been moved to Wednesday, October 31, 2012 at 3:30 CDT due to the hurricane.

    It's not to late to register to meet the hosts! I personally invite each and every one to explore this opportunity! As their first member, I look forward to trading with friends, both old and new alike.

    http://www.mrtopstep.com/mrtopstep-announces-the-launch-of-a-new-options-trading-community-and-education-service/

    Suz

    Tags: Webinar
    Oct 29 11:59 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Market Notes: October 28, 2012

    Let's jump right into the chart:

    (click to enlarge)

    This is a daily chart of the $SPX. We are seeing 7 days of downtrend, to an established support at the 1400 level. From here I am expecting a rise, based on historical action at this level, the oversold state of the overall market and the stochastic positioning. We printed a long legged doji which is a sign of indecision, but in this instance viewed as a bullish reversal signal.

    Projecting targets: We start from the base of 1400, as our low was actually 1403.28. Our first immediate resistance is 1425-1427 which is the 50 day ema, and a place we spent quite a bit of prior time at - that's a given but what happens after that? Assuming our first target is 1425-1427, that is only 12-15 points off of our close on Friday. Is that enough money to get the trillions of dollars back into the market to create a spectacular end of year rally? I don't think so. I think we need to get across the next level which is a little 10 point plateau between 1430 & 1440 - that was the "proving grounds". Look at the chart below - we have had "matching candles" or mirror action both up and down from 1400 to 1474.

    (click to enlarge)

    In my mind this tells me that if we can make it to the top range of the "proving grounds", we stand a good chance of seeing UPSIDE capitulation back to the old highs of 1474. Remember we are viewing this on a short daily timeframe. The weekly and monthly charts look horrible - so this is all short term positioning into the end of year.

    I went long SSO Thursday based on my charts above, and added SPY calls in part based on this chart from my good friend Jeff Royston. This is an intraday of the 30 min $SPX.

    (click to enlarge)

    This chart summed up my the exact thoughts above - triple bottom at 1400ish and resistance at the bottom of the channel at 1425.

    Our immediate task is to overcome 1425. We have been running in little mini cycles of 7-8 days, however in the larger study of peaks and troughs, we are at the BOTTOM of a larger trough so based on this, I am expecting the run to 1425 (1440) ending by next Friday, a small pullback (will be able to better pinpoint levels once we see where we top), then a harder run back to the former highs, ultimate rejection with end of the year tax selling.

    Trade prudently, use stops and above all else protect your capital.

    On a personal note, in my private accounts I am a short to intermediate term trader. In my professional accounts I am focused on income for the mid to long term. I am a voracious reader, and highly analytical. Over the past two years I've met some of the most amazing traders - EW specialists, candlestick specialists, energy traders, grain Traders, HFT Traders, futures traders & options traders for ALL styles of trading across multiple investment vehicles. These traders have formed a group called OptionsPro, a sister company to the wildly successful futures site MrTopStep IMPro. This is where I "trade with the desk". It makes no difference if you are a novice trader or a well seasoned veteran there is something here for everyone. They are having an open house where you can meet the lead contributors Dan Sheridan, Bob Lang & Henry Schwartz, tomorrow afternoon Oct. 29 at 3:30PM CT/ 4:30PM ET. I encourage you all to log in and check out this FREE webinar.

    http://www.mrtopstep.com/mrtopstep-announces-the-launch-of-a-new-options-trading-community-and-education-service/

    Suz

    @suzyq76022

    Suz@mscm.net

    Disclosure: I am long SPY, SSO.

    Additional disclosure: MSCM and/or I may or may not have a position in this stock which may or may not be exited without advance notice. Data is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not offered as investment advice. Timing of transactions can be critical to the success of a position. MSCM, its employees or owners shall not be liable for any errors or delay in the content, or for any action taken in reliance on any content provided within. Opinions expressed here are the sole opinions of the author and not representative of any firm view.

    Oct 28 11:40 PM | Link | 1 Comment
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