SW Richmond

Why Are Homebuilders Up On Lousy Earnings? [Housing Tracker]

This is a perfect, perfect, perfect illustration of the 30- and 40-something crowd that still believes that this is just another dip that the Fed et al are going to maneuver us out of, and so this "low" is just another historic buying opportunity. Americans have been taught that they have a right to expect the stock market to always go up. The 30- and 40-somethings have grown up in an environment where stocks just go up. Put money in the stock market and by magic it gets bigger! What's not to like? This is the short-attention-span crowd that thinks it understands economics and boo-yahs at idiots like Cramer.

And their is a paradigm that that will kill most of them. This crowd has never seen a genuine capitulation. We are so far still from a genuine capitulation event that when it comes this crowd will be vomiting on the streets. Literally.

And then they will be begging for the government to save them.

Desperate Homebuilders Bringing Back Bubble-Era Financing - Housing Tracker

Most of the articles clearly indicate that the paradigm shift hasn't taken place yet. While I don't expect the big homebuilders to pack up their stuff and leave, they appear to be betting their futures on a return to the good old days. The thing about the good old days is, like the tech bubble, they were never real. Let the turkeys that like these turkeys drive them up in a "hope" rally (financials, anyone?), and then short them, because once the recession hits for real, they're dead meat.