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More To Economic Slowdown Than Weather
- Hopes are currently that the weather was so harsh that it had an unusual impact that accounted for the economy’s problems.
- It’s widely expected, or at least hoped, that economic reports for March and April will show a significant bounce-back that will confirm that assessment.
- So far, the picture is not all that reassuring.
The Market Is Too Dependent On Hopes That Await Evidence
- The market remained positive, near its December peak for three months, primarily based on these four hopes.
- At this point it needs more than hopes. Meanwhile, the volatility has spawned loose talk of bubbles and crashes.
- However, both bubbles and crashes are extremely rare events, neither likely to take place.
The Market's Annual Seasonality Is A Real Concern This Year
- The thought of Sell in May type seasonality is out of favor this year.
- After all, it failed to outperform the market for two straight years.
- Here's why it could come roaring back big-time this year to bite the unwary investor.
U.S. Market Swimming Against An Ominous Global Tide
- The U.S. market has only been stalled so far this year, Dow down 1%, S&P 500 up 1%.
- However, global markets outside of the U.S. have been in retreat, some in substantial bear markets.
- The rising tide of global market declines raises the risk that the U.S. market will not be able to endure against that tide much longer.
Can U.S. Markets Avoid A Serious Correction Again?
- Market decline this week is causing some concern.
- At this point it is minor and hardly a blip on the charts.
- But that does not mean it should be ignored.
Safe Havens Are Trouncing Stocks So Far This Year
- Investors are going crazy for stocks.
- Perhaps looking in the rear view mirror at last year’s big gains, they have unusually high portfolio allocations skewed to stocks from bonds.
- Yet so far this year stocks have gone almost nowhere, while safe haven bonds, and particularly gold, are significantly out-performing the stock market.
- Markets Still Loving The Economy's Increasing Problems
- Watch For A Taper Time Out
- The Economic Outlook Is About More Than Just Jobs
- Bonds Are Defying Dire Forecasts
- Was The Fed Too Hasty With Its Taper Decision?
- Don't Blame The Weather For Dismal December Economic Reports
- The Jobs Report Rained On New Fed Chair Yellen's Honeymoon Period
- Will The Market's 2013 Winners Also Be Winners In 2014?
- Investor Expectations Also Need Tapering As We Enter 2014
- The Fed Will Still Provide Massive QE Next Year - But
- Will The Real Economy Please Stand Up?
- Market Seasonality And The Fed Are A Powerful Combination
- The Fed Is Backed Into A Corner
- Why It's Still Only A Cyclical Bull Market Within The Long-Term Secular Bear
Don't Worry So Much About The Record U.S. Government Debt
Nov. 8, 2013 • 20 Comments
- It's Still Too Early To Worry About The Fed Tapering
- The Bull Market Continues, But Watch Out For The Short Term
- New Concerns Will Continue Market's Volatility
- Buy Emerging Markets, But Carefully
- Has Warren Buffett Nailed Another Market Top?
What Did The Week Of Major Economic Reports Tell Us?
Sep. 6, 2013 • 10 Comments
- Was Second Quarter The Peak For The Economic Recovery?
- U.S. Treasury Bonds Are Oversold
- It's Time To Buy Gold Again
Withdrawal From Stimulus Addiction Will Be Difficult
Aug. 9, 2013 • 11 Comments
- Real Estate Mini-Bubble Deflating May Be Economy's Next Problem