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  • Allied Nevada: Rising Short Interest [View article]
    Looks like you missed today's move
    Oct 7 01:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's No Way In Hell The Fed Will Taper [View article]
    "The government sequestered it's chance to borrow at extremely low rates ..."

    I think you meant squandered
    Sep 16 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Trade: Short Now, Buy Later? [View article]
    @winfield100 you didn't actually read what I wrote.

    "On the week of the test drive, we (northeast) saw incredibly cold temperatures." That week in winter was one of the coldest for the region (ever). No recreations during a warmer period can capture the effect of the heat loss.
    Aug 26 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Trade: Short Now, Buy Later? [View article]
    What actually happened with the NYT test drive was a gross overreaction by tesla:

    To prevent battery freezing, Model S has temperature sensors and a separate heater that will kick in when the outside temperature drops substantially. On the week of the test drive, we (northeast) saw incredibly cold temperatures, so the heater kicked in. That led to a substantial drop in battery charge. When the reviewer noticed this and called Tesla support, they suggested that the reading was bad (and that the car was charged properly) and would correct itself once the battery warmed up.

    Now, thanks to Musk's accusations and pressure from other sources, NYT was forced to make a half-hearted retraction. The truth is that nothing abnormal happened and would have been resolved had the engineers properly diagnosed the situation. If they recognized the problem, told the reviewer what happened, and asked him to charge a bit before leaving, then I suspect we wouldn't have seen that mess.

    See (http://bit.ly/19HJjxu) for a better discussion
    Aug 26 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Why I'm Bullish In The Short-Term [View article]
    > few are waiting it out to settle in physical and the amounts could be quite substantial.

    I'd expect games like what happened with the Hunt brothers
    Aug 10 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada: High Leveraged Play On A Gold Recovery [View article]
    I thought that most miners stopped hedging after losing a bunch when they hedged years ago
    Aug 3 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla On The S&P 500? Unlikely, But Could Trigger Short Squeeze [View article]
    It may start next week, if the sales numbers come below market expectations.
    Aug 3 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla On The S&P 500? Unlikely, But Could Trigger Short Squeeze [View article]
    That's why you should actually look at the numbers:

    Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
    7/15/2013 18,491,029 8,684,647 2.129163
    4/15/2013 30,695,142 4,071,915 7.538257

    Many shorts already covered, and there's reason to believe that the people who bought the convertible bond probably shorted above the conversion price, so the uncovered short position really has fallen.
    Aug 2 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla On The S&P 500? Unlikely, But Could Trigger Short Squeeze [View article]
    FYI: On many metrics (short interest, days to cover, ...) TSLA is shorted less than GM and F and other automotive and tech companies. It's not clear how much of a "short squeeze" is left.

    The last official number (and this was printed before the July 16 fall) was half the short interest from last quarter.

    Sure, there are some shorts left, but don't expect a mass short squeeze ...
    Aug 2 09:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada Gold An Excellent Long-Term Value Play [View article]
    Good summary, but you should note that the recent dilution for two reasons:

    1) they announced it literally two weeks after officially saying they don't need to dilute. There is some justifiable fear that it will happen again

    2) the dilution gave them enough cash to weather depressed gold prices while Hycroft is built. This IMHO makes ANV a much more compelling buy below the 10.75 price compared to other miners which may not have the cash reserve to weather the storm
    Jul 13 08:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla May Be Undone By Window Undressing [View article]
    The problem is that, for a momentum stock, every dip represents a risk that the momentum could shift to the downside. It's a game of hot potato and no one wants to be stuck holding the bag (remember AAPL 700?)
    Jun 30 11:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla May Be Undone By Window Undressing [View article]
    Their highly litigious stance, to be honest, comes off as petulant and amateur. With the NYT situation, had Musk just responded by saying that we saw extreme cold weather and that does affect battery life, it would have been a nice conclusion and everyone would have moved on. Instead, aggressive accusations turned off many potential customers (many of which trust the NYT)
    Jun 30 11:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla May Be Undone By Window Undressing [View article]
    One comment regarding "window dressing": last month, for those who had to show monthly numbers, the settlement price (T-3, so May 28) was 110.33. June's settlement price (Jun 25) was 102.40.

    The peak price in may was 114.90 and the peak price in june was the 110.25 from last Thursday. There's reason to suspect that window dressing was actually a net negative (and that the run-up from Thursday was related to the white house petition -- that's when the major websites, finance and otherwise, really started to cover the petition)
    Jun 30 11:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Allied Nevada Gold Corp. Bounce Back From Collapsing Gold Prices? [View article]
    What's not clear is if the shares went to new longs or went to shorts (who used the opportunity to cover)
    Jun 26 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze [View article]
    " the Model S is still the finest car I've ever owned and a dream to drive"

    Few shorts would argue with that sentiment. But we are talking about the stock, and a company that makes an awesome product can have an overpriced stock (likewise a company that makes a terrible product can have an underpriced stock)
    May 22 04:23 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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