The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze [View article]
" the Model S is still the finest car I've ever owned and a dream to drive"
Few shorts would argue with that sentiment. But we are talking about the stock, and a company that makes an awesome product can have an overpriced stock (likewise a company that makes a terrible product can have an underpriced stock)
1 Energy, 1 Gold And A Software Company With Recent Intensive Insider Buying [View article]
did you look at the sheet I posted? the net was selling, not buying. I'd agree if there were more shares bought, but the numbers aren't on your side here.
The situation does not bode well, and for next time I highly recommend you do more digging before coming to conclusions. I can recommend some good books if you would like
1 Energy, 1 Gold And A Software Company With Recent Intensive Insider Buying [View article]
(had to register for the site because it wouldn't show me stuff from February)
When you take out all of the options stuff (so that the nature of transaction is either "10 - Acquisition in the public market" or "10 - Disposition in the public market", $186,500 were sold and $111625 were purchased, for a net SELLING of $74875 (more shares were sold on the public market than purchased). The biggest moves were:
Scott Perry SELLING $74550 ON THE OPEN MARKET Richard Mark Colterjohn SELLING $50000 ON THE OPEN MARKET
Using your measures, this is really a bearish signal (esp if the CEO and President is selling). It's worse than I initially thought!
In case you want to verify, I put the raw data up here: http://bit.ly/178G8NE (and if you want to see the raw data, I suggest you register for the site and go to http://bit.ly/13wUfOt)
'A lot of these supposed "insider buys" turn out to be stock acquisitions under an executive compensation program where the company loans the executive the money to buy the stock and then "forgives" or cancels, the loan. It's not like they are actually buying company shares with their actual money. You'd have to look at the regulatory filings to find out if these are real buys with real money or just fringe benefits paid in shares. Given that so many of the "insider buys" happened on the same dates strongly suggests the latter, and has, therefore, little or no value in deciding the investment merit of the company.'
Aurico Gold: What Happens When The Experts Go Against Simple Logic ... [View article]
I thought about long GDX / GDXJ but the problem there is that, as evidenced by the short-term performance, there are many laggards in the group. While AUQ has outperformed gold recently, a slew of miners have done really poorly.
What I would expect, after selling off mines, is that the natural beta would fall. However, given that we are seeing efforts to run up the price (at a rate far faster than gold), it's almost trading as if people still believe they will produce much more gold than is physically possible given their mine portfolio (not a surprise, given Hickey's comments).
Aurico Gold: What Happens When The Experts Go Against Simple Logic ... [View article]
The trade still hasn't played out yet: if you bothered to read the articles, you would see the long-gold-short-AUQ trade paid out 1.8% as opposed to the 30% based on the original arguments
The "devoid-of-real-inform... pieces are the pumps. If gold really did spike, why would AUQ run more than the other miners who aren't selling mines? A miner that's liquidating mines reflects management bearishness on the mine or gold in general.
AuRico Gold: Buy A Low-Debt Producer With A Dividend [View article]
@dgrant589 I don't buy much into the technicals. In this particular case, to stop the bleeding, the company announced a dividend a full month ahead of their planned release date (they said it would happen in late march, but it happened in february -- probably after looking at the stock price) This is not something any of the technicals would capture.
That aside, technical factors can be considered short-term (using very recent data like a 20 day moving average, but are only really useful in very short-term predictions) or medium or long-term (using longer data like a 50 or 200 day EMA, but help ascertain the general trends). StockTA appears to break down the signals into the classes and generate a score for each (so the short-term score of -.34 corresponds to just the short-term signals, the -.44 long-term score is for the long-term signals, and the overall -.37 corresponds to all of the signals put together)
But I don't like to look at their composite scores. Those reflect the authors' weightings and you may not agree with the value that they ascribe to those factors.
Most free data services (Think or swim is free if you put 3500 in the account iirc) have an easy way to calculate the individual technical factors, and it would be a useful exercise to play around and get a feel for what the individual factors mean.
AuRico Gold: Buy A Low-Debt Producer With A Dividend [View article]
Stockta.com calculates many signals like EMA, MACD and other technical signals, and uses them to generate scores (between -1 and 1) which are then averaged to come up with a composite score.
The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze [View article]
Few shorts would argue with that sentiment. But we are talking about the stock, and a company that makes an awesome product can have an overpriced stock (likewise a company that makes a terrible product can have an underpriced stock)
1 Energy, 1 Gold And A Software Company With Recent Intensive Insider Buying [View article]
The situation does not bode well, and for next time I highly recommend you do more digging before coming to conclusions. I can recommend some good books if you would like
1 Energy, 1 Gold And A Software Company With Recent Intensive Insider Buying [View article]
1 Energy, 1 Gold And A Software Company With Recent Intensive Insider Buying [View article]
1 Energy, 1 Gold And A Software Company With Recent Intensive Insider Buying [View article]
1 Energy, 1 Gold And A Software Company With Recent Intensive Insider Buying [View article]
When you take out all of the options stuff (so that the nature of transaction is either "10 - Acquisition in the public market" or "10 - Disposition in the public market", $186,500 were sold and $111625 were purchased, for a net SELLING of $74875 (more shares were sold on the public market than purchased). The biggest moves were:
Scott Perry SELLING $74550 ON THE OPEN MARKET
Richard Mark Colterjohn SELLING $50000 ON THE OPEN MARKET
Using your measures, this is really a bearish signal (esp if the CEO and President is selling). It's worse than I initially thought!
In case you want to verify, I put the raw data up here: http://bit.ly/178G8NE (and if you want to see the raw data, I suggest you register for the site and go to http://bit.ly/13wUfOt)
1 Energy, 1 Gold And A Software Company With Recent Intensive Insider Buying [View article]
To repeat a quote from the last time you posted: http://seekingalpha.co...
'A lot of these supposed "insider buys" turn out to be stock acquisitions under an executive compensation program where the company loans the executive the money to buy the stock and then "forgives" or cancels, the loan. It's not like they are actually buying company shares with their actual money. You'd have to look at the regulatory filings to find out if these are real buys with real money or just fringe benefits paid in shares. Given that so many of the "insider buys" happened on the same dates strongly suggests the latter, and has, therefore, little or no value in deciding the investment merit of the company.'
Aurico Gold: What Happens When The Experts Go Against Simple Logic ... [View article]
Aurico Gold: What Happens When The Experts Go Against Simple Logic ... [View article]
Aurico Gold: What Happens When The Experts Go Against Simple Logic ... [View article]
What I would expect, after selling off mines, is that the natural beta would fall. However, given that we are seeing efforts to run up the price (at a rate far faster than gold), it's almost trading as if people still believe they will produce much more gold than is physically possible given their mine portfolio (not a surprise, given Hickey's comments).
Aurico Gold: What Happens When The Experts Go Against Simple Logic ... [View article]
Aurico Gold: What Happens When The Experts Go Against Simple Logic ... [View article]
The "devoid-of-real-inform... pieces are the pumps. If gold really did spike, why would AUQ run more than the other miners who aren't selling mines? A miner that's liquidating mines reflects management bearishness on the mine or gold in general.
AuRico Gold: Buy A Low-Debt Producer With A Dividend [View article]
That aside, technical factors can be considered short-term (using very recent data like a 20 day moving average, but are only really useful in very short-term predictions) or medium or long-term (using longer data like a 50 or 200 day EMA, but help ascertain the general trends). StockTA appears to break down the signals into the classes and generate a score for each (so the short-term score of -.34 corresponds to just the short-term signals, the -.44 long-term score is for the long-term signals, and the overall -.37 corresponds to all of the signals put together)
But I don't like to look at their composite scores. Those reflect the authors' weightings and you may not agree with the value that they ascribe to those factors.
Most free data services (Think or swim is free if you put 3500 in the account iirc) have an easy way to calculate the individual technical factors, and it would be a useful exercise to play around and get a feel for what the individual factors mean.
AuRico Gold: Buy A Low-Debt Producer With A Dividend [View article]
AuRico Gold: Buy A Low-Debt Producer With A Dividend [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...