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T. C.

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  • Annaly Has Bottomed: Multiple Reasons To Run For The Hills [View article]
    Hi Brad,

    You're showing your dark side rattling the NLY cage full of true believers.

    If your mother asked you where to invest $10,000 right now, what would you tell her and what would you expect your picks to do over the next three years?

    TC
    Jan 18 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust 1: Profits Going To Your Broker And Large Investors, $2.42 Value [View article]
    Today, Tuesday Nov 26, WHX is up 6.7% to $4.94. Why?

    1) Investors think they will get the $0.59 dividend on 11/29.
    2) ?
    Nov 26 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust 1: Profits Going To Your Broker And Large Investors, $2.42 Value [View article]
    You can hope.

    But always remember the first rule of investing: The market can do anything. WHX may never reach the 11/12 high $6.33 again.
    Nov 26 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust 1: Profits Going To Your Broker And Large Investors, $2.42 Value [View article]
    WHX bid up 3.22% to close at $4.49 today (Thur) on higher-than-normal volume of 579k shares. Today's buyers will not get the dividend distributed November 29, and as clearly documented in the 10-Q and this article the shares are worth the sum of the remaining dividends, about $2.50. So what can we conclude:
    1) People buying WHX today have money and no clue except that it yields 44% for now, or
    2) ?

    This bodes poorly for the efficient market theory.

    I'm thinking that I could create a return of capital trust with a 24 month lifespan and a 40% annual payout (20% for me), call it TC-ROC Dividend Plus ++ !, disclose all this in my 10-Q, and sell it to these "dividend investors".
    Nov 21 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting USA Trust I About To Drop By 50% [View article]
    Good article. Couple of observations:

    The 6.86 MMBOE already distributed does not include the November 2013 distribution. When I factor that in and pro-rate the remaining payout, I get ~ $2.23 remaining intrinsic value based on current energy prices and trust expenses; a little less if discounted for time value, a little more if energy prices rise in the remaining 18 months of the trust.

    Also, today the issue traded ex-dividend, which of course means that people who bought the 1.15 million shares traded today do not get the November dividend. I cannot rationalize any other conclusion but there are people with money buying WHX who do not know when the ex-dividend date is, or do not know what it means. ++ For one born every minute, -- for the efficient market hypothesis.
    Nov 16 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy: Expect A Lower Payout For Q3 2013 [View article]
    We already figured that because the insiders keep dumping stock.
    Sep 27 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 High-Yielding Stocks With A Very Low PEG Ratio And Strong Growth Prospects [View article]
    Problem with NTI is insiders keep selling - without a doubt they have better information that you and I. It might be interesting to play the volatility before and after dividend announcements.
    Sep 19 07:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy To Stay Ahead Of Refinery MLP Peers For Rest Of 2013 [View article]
    NIT insiders are selling - why should I think I know better?
    Aug 15 05:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM mREITs: Take The Discount On These Low Risk Funds [View article]
    With AGNC down to $22.78 today, let me take this opportunity to say I told you so. CMO closed today at $12.02, significantly below book value of $13.60 at end of Q1. Book value is likely unchanged since CMO holds only ARMS which do not gain or lose value as market interest rates change. Take the discount.
    Jun 27 08:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best mREITs As Mortgage Rates Rise [View article]
    Yes, funds holding all or mostly ARMs are in the best position now and can pay 10% or so. HTS is one, COM is another. COM recently called in some relatively expensive preferred stock and is replacing it with a lower cost issue. I am planning an article to feature ARM mortgage reits.

    Thanks for your comment.
    May 16 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM Rates for 7 Mortgage REITs That Yield at Least 12% [View article]
    Because 1) they did not publish financial statements for over a year, and 2) their CPA quit or got fired.
    May 14 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best mREITs As Mortgage Rates Rise [View article]
    NCT book value has increased each quarter. The stock price has run up well above book value following some aggressive investments and announced plans to split into two funds - NCT, and NRZ - with NCT shareholders receiving one share of NRZ. Per 4/26/13 press release the distribution will take place May 15.
    May 8 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Do When Your Stock Cuts Its Dividend [View article]
    Get out - rotate the proceeds into Reaves Utility Income Fund (UTG). Per the UTG annual report, there are places to be and not be in the utility space. UTG provides diversification and informed diligent management.

    http://bit.ly/Yxqnj7
    May 5 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best mREITs As Mortgage Rates Rise [View article]
    That is correct. Per their 1st quarter results, HTS holds 90% ARMs. Net income per share was $0.62 v $1.02 in q4, net interest margin was 1.11% up from 1.08%. They sustained their dividend at $0.70 and book value was $28.18 v $28.19. This is much better than most agency reits will fare in the current environment. Yesterday AGNC disappointed with a loss and a 9% decline in book value, and hybrid MTGE surprised with a net loss after the close today. HTS closed today at $26.76, 5% below Mar 31 NAV.. Good post xxavatarxx, thanks.
    May 3 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best mREITs As Mortgage Rates Rise [View article]
    It’s an interesting concept but I haven't run across a fund utilizing that strategy. Thanks for your comment.
    May 3 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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109 Comments
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