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T. Marc Schober

 
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  • WASDE: Record Corn Crop Remains Predicted
    Thu, Jun. 12 CORN, JJG, GRU Comment!

    Summary

    • Domestic corn balance sheets were unchanged this month as reports continue to favor a record crop this year.
    • Favorable planting and growing weather at the end of May and beginning of June have operators optimistic for the upcoming crop.
    • The unchanged corn report comes as no surprise as the USDA has not amended their production or yield estimates in the month of June for several decades.
  • Crop Progress Report: Corn And Soybean Conditions Set High Expectations
    Mon, Jun. 9 CORN, SOYB, WEAT 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Grain prices continue to fall as the outlook for the 2014 crop continually improves due to favorable weather.
    • The major corn and soybean growing areas of the U.S. received anywhere from 2-8 inches of rain last week.
    • Analysts continue to forecast high planted corn acres due to the lack of farmers following through on switching to soybeans over feared planting delays.
  • USDA Weekly Exports: Wheat Closes 2013/14 Marketing Year
    Thu, Jun. 5 WEET, CORN, SOYB Comment!

    Summary

    • Wheat closed the 2013/2014 marketing year with a marketing year low for sales. Corn and soybean sales were also down.
    • Soybean exports increased significantly following consecutive weeks of decline. Corn and wheat exports both decreased.
    • The USDA Crop Progress report released this week showed significant improvement in corn and soybean planting across the U.S. Emergence for both crops was also at or above average.
  • Crop Progress Report: Corn Planting Near End As Farmers Turn Focus To Soybeans
    Mon, Jun. 2 CORN, SOYB, WEAT 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Corn planting closed its final week of reporting ahead of the five-year average.
    • Northern Corn Belt states continue trying to plant corn, but more reports are suggesting that many farmers are changing unplanted corn acres to shorter maturing soybeans.
    • Corn prices closed today at $4.65, soybeans closed at $14.98, and wheat closed at $6.20. Year-to-year corn prices are down 29.1%, soybeans are down 2.2%, and wheat is down 12.6%.
  • Favorable Conditions For May Planting
    Mon, Jun. 2 CORN, SOYB, WEET Comment!

    Summary

    • The successful planting season thus far has put downward pressure on grain prices with an outlook for bumper corn and soybean crops.
    • The demand for food is growing each day as the world's population expands and diets evolve to a higher protein base, and so is the demand for protein producers.
    • The weather outlook is favorable for U.S. farmers to finish up planting their corn and soybean crops on time and focus on post emergence spraying in the upcoming weeks.
  • USDA Weekly Exports: Corn Sales Increase For Third Consecutive Week
    Fri, May. 30 CORN, SOYB, WEET Comment!

    Summary

    • Corn sales increase again.
    • Soybean sales and exports decrease.
    • Favorable weather for planting.
  • USDA Weekly Exports: Soybean Sales Increase For Second Week In A Row
    Thu, May. 22 SOYB, CORN, WEET Comment!

    Summary

    • Sales increased for corn, soybeans, and wheat which marked the first time since the end of February that all three crops reported week-to-week increases.
    • Corn exports increased following the decline reported last week. Corn exports have not increased in consecutive weeks since March.
    • Soybean and wheat exports declined, but stayed within proximity to their respective four-week average.
  • Farmland Values Appreciate In Great Plains
    Wed, May. 21 WEET, JJA 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Farmland Values in the Great Plains continued to rise despite falling grain prices and a dreadful year for the winter wheat crop in the region.
    • Irrigated and nonirrigated farmland both increased from the first quarter last year rising 6.4% and 4.4% respectively.
    • High operating costs and a decline in grain prices is expected to lead to lower farm incomes in 2014.
  • Rising Crop Prices Boost Rural Economy
    Tue, May. 20 DBA, RJA, JJG Comment!

    Summary

    • The rural economy rallied to its highest level in 2014 this past month because of increasing crop prices and economic conditions.
    • Farmland values declined slightly but the belief is that the increase in crop prices over the last several months should boost land values over the summer.
    • Extreme support for the Keystone XL Pipeline construction was expressed by bankers surveyed.
  • Crop Progress Report: Corn Planting Near 5-Year Average
    Mon, May. 19 DBA, CORN, RJA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The USDA estimated 73% of corn acres were planted across the U.S. as of May 18th, a 14% increase from the prior week.
    • Soybean planting lost some ground on the five-year average due to wet and cold weather in the major growing regions.
    • Winter wheat conditions were slightly changed from the past week.
  • Farmland Values Held Back By Waning Grain Prices
    Mon, May. 19 DBA, RJA, JJG Comment!

    Summary

    • Farmland values increased year-to-year in the Seventh Federal district by 1%.
    • Values decreased 1% relative to the fourth quarter 2013.
    • Farmland Values are expected to remain stable through the second quarter of 2014.
  • USDA Weekly Exports: Corn Sales Rebound Following Marketing Year Low
    Thu, May. 15 CORN, SOYB, WEET Comment!

    Summary

    • The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released by the USDA last week estimated an ample supply of corn, soybeans, and wheat for the 2013/14 and 2014/15 marketing years.
    • Corn sales rebounded heavily following a reported decrease last week. Soybean sales also increased for the second week in a row. Wheat sales continued to decline.
    • Soybean and wheat exports both increased from the prior week. The 2013/14 marketing year for wheat closes at the end May. Corn exports fell.
  • Crop Progress Report: Farmers Overcome Poor Conditions To Get Corn Planting Back On Track
    Mon, May. 12 CORN, WEAT, SOYB Comment!

    Summary

    • Following weeks of poor weather, including rain and below average temperatures, farmers were finally able to get caught up on their planting, doubling the planted acres estimate in one week.
    • The USDA estimated 59% of corn acres were planted across the U.S. as of May 11th, a 30% increase from the prior week.
    • Soybean planting is on schedule with 20% of the overall acres planted, just 1% behind the five-year average.
    • Winter wheat conditions were slightly changed from the past week. The USDA reported that 20% of the wheat was in very “poor” condition from 17% last week.
  • Why Invest In Farmland? (2014 Edition)
    Mon, May. 12 MOO, PAGG, CROP 25 Comments

    Summary

    • An investment in farmland over the long-term will provide a steady stream of income and capital gains due to the increasing global demand for agricultural commodities.
    • Driven by the rising world population, rapid growth in emerging markets, and continued demand for ethanol and biofuels.
    • Demand for agricultural commodities is outpacing supply, positioning farmland for long-term appreciation.
  • WASDE: Corn Demand Weighs On Stocks
    Fri, May. 9 CORN, SOYB, WEET Comment!

    Summary

    • U.S. corn demand continues to rise as export estimates in May have increased 150 million bushels following a 125 million bushel increase in the April WASDE.
    • The corn stocks-to-use ratio has dropped from 9.9% in April to 8.4% in May. Soybean and wheat estimates were mostly unchanged for the 2013/14 marketing year.
    • May's report took a first look at the 2014/15 supply and demand estimates; these estimates should not be taken heavily into consideration due to an abundance of production risks.
  • USDA Weekly Exports: Domestic And Global Pressures Cause Major Grain Market Fluctuation
    Thu, May. 8 DBA, CORN, RJA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Planting delays and tension in Ukraine lead to fluctuation in market.
    • Corn sales impacted along with soybean and wheat exports.
    • Corn exports up along with soybean and wheat sales.
  • Crop Progress: Favorable Weather For Planting Season
    Mon, May. 5 CORN, SOYB, WEAT Comment!

    Summary

    • Corn planting progresses.
    • Soybean planting in second week of reporting.
    • Winter wheat conditions worsen.
  • April Planting Delayed As Farmers Wait For Spring
    Thu, May. 1 CORN, WEAT, SOYB 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Poor weather has delayed planting, causing concern for this year's corn crop.
    • Ethanol prices spike due to logistical issues on the railways caused by the oil boom in the western Dakotas.
    • Despite the late start to planting, many farmers are still confident that there is enough time to complete corn planting, barring continued wet and cold weather into mid-May.
  • Crop Progress Report: Planted Corn Acres Increased 13%
    Mon, Apr. 28 DBA, CORN, RJA Comment!

    Summary

    • Cold and wet weather has delayed planting across much of the U.S.
    • The USDA Crop Progress Report released today estimated 19% of corn acres are planted across the U.S., a 13% increase from the prior week.
    • Corn, $5.13 per bushel, and wheat, $7.08 per bushel, both traded 5% higher from the past week, while soybeans, $14.98 per bushel, traded less than 1% lower.
  • Increasing Crop Prices Main Factor In Rural Economy Turnaround
    Tue, Apr. 22 DBA, CORN, RJA 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Rural economy growing for second straight month.
    • Farmland price index still below growth neutral.
    • Bankers believe breakeven price for corn is $4.30.
  • USDA Weekly Exports: Ukrainian Unrest Catapults Wheat Sales
    Thu, Apr. 17 DBA, CORN, RJA Comment!

    Summary

    • Wheat sales rebounded from a marketing year low on the news that civil unrest in Ukraine has split the country.
    • Soybean sales continue to decline but total commitments this year have exceeded the USDA's projections.
    • Crop Progress report released Monday estimated 3% of corn acres planted thus far. A 1% increase from this time last year, but a 3% decrease from the four-year average.
  • USDA Weekly Exports: Wheat Sales Hit Marketing Year Low
    Thu, Apr. 10 DBA, CORN, RJA 2 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. wheat sales declined sharply reaching a marketing year low and have declined nine out of the last 10 weeks.
    • Corn sales and export levels declined, but reported levels are well above those seen in 2013 and 2012.
    • Soybean sales increased slightly and have been on the rebound following the marketing year low reported for the week ending March 20th.
  • WASDE: Exports Lower Corn And Soybean Stocks
    Wed, Apr. 9 CORN, SOYB, WEAT 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Ending stocks decreased.
    • Exports increased.
    • Planting season ahead.
  • USDA Weekly Exports: Corn Exports Continue To Increase
    Thu, Apr. 3 CORN, SOYB, GRU Comment!

    Summary

    • Corn exports increased to the second highest level of the 2013/2014 marketing year.
    • Soybeans exports continued to decline consistent with the trend seen over the past month.
    • The quarterly grain stocks report released Monday showed domestic stocks of soybean and wheat down in comparison to 2013, while corn stocks were reportedly up 30%.
    • The USDA Prospective Planting report was also released Monday. The report showed a large shift to soybean planted acres, a move that had been speculated by most analysts.
  • Revamped Subsidies For Grain Farmers Emphasize Crop Insurance
    Wed, Apr. 2 CORN, SOYB, WEAT 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Agricultural subsidies are a fiercely argued topic, especially when the farm bill is in the news.
    • For the vast majority of U.S. farmers who grow corn, soybeans, and wheat, farm subsidies provide little to no income assistance.
    • The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimated in 2013 that farm subsidies make up 7.1% of income for American farmers, this in contrast to the EU 19%, Russia.
    • For an industry that is susceptible to many different and unpredictable variables, the need for affordable insurance is important.
    • The average age of a farmer has risen to 58.3 years old with a third of farmers being older than 65.
  • Increased Soybean Acreage At Corn's Expense
    Mon, Mar. 31 CORN, SOYB, WEAT Comment!

    Summary

    • Favorable profit margins for soybeans have farmers increasing soybean planted acreage in 2014 by five million acres.
    • Estimated corn planted acreage was the lowest since 2010.
    • In the past two months, corn prices have made a comeback due to domestic ethanol demand, global feed demand, and tensions in Eastern Europe.
  • USDA Weekly Exports: Corn Exports Spike Reaching Highest Level Of 2014
    Thu, Mar. 27 DBA, CORN, RJA Comment!

    Summary

    • Corn exports reach highest level in 2014.
    • Soybean sales and exports decline, with reported stocks 50 million below the 2013 level.
    • Prospective planting estimates suggest less of a shift to soybeans than earlier suggested.
  • USDA Weekly Exports: Week-To-Week Sales And Exports Decrease
    Thu, Mar. 13 CORN, SOYB, WEAT Comment!

    Summary

    • Sales and exports declined week over week for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
    • Corn and wheat exports remained above their 10-week average.
    • Soybean exports fell below 1 million bushels for the first time since early October.
  • WASDE: Grain Exports Less Than Expected
    Tue, Mar. 11 WEET, CORN, SOYB Comment!

    Summary

    • Chinese demand growing for soybeans as U.S. stocks at 16-day supply.
    • Corn ending stocks 25 million bushels lower.
    • U.S. wheat balance sheets unchanged.
  • USDA Weekly Exports: Sales Volumes Continue To Increase
    Thu, Mar. 6 CORN, SOYB, WEAT 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Corn and soybean sales continue their upward trend, significantly outpacing their 10-week averages.
    • Exports for wheat and corn also rose from last week.
    • Soybean exports continue to slowly decline from marketing year highs seen in late 2013 early 2014.
  • Ukrainian Unrest And Russian Aggression Result In Unpredictable Grain Market
    Wed, Mar. 5 GRU, WEET, JJG 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Ukraine’s importance in the global grain market has grown as the country has become one of the world’s largest exporters of corn and wheat.
    • Beginning Friday, on the news that Russian troops had entered Ukraine, corn prices in the US have gone up $0.17 or 3.5%.
    • In the short term, grain prices will continue to feed off of the uncertainty around one of the largest exporters of grain in the world.
  • Grains Rally In Cold Weather
    Mon, Mar. 3 WEET, SOYB, CORN Comment!