Comments on Tacitus' articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/tacitus/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-376372 376372 Thu, 05 Feb 2009 00:34:17 -0500
On 11.28.08, he said that we should go long BAC, C and DRYS (or that he was long)

BAC:
11.28.08 - $15.89
02.04.09 - $4.70

C:
11.28.08 - $8.27
02.04.09 - $3.49

DRYS:
11.28.08 - $5.44
02.04.09 - $7.16 (two days ago on 02.02 it was $4.89)

So it would seem that the author may have gotten in near a recent bottom with DRYS, but he's getting killed in BAC and C.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-343701 343701 It's unfortunate that a lot of the comments on this article just > state random opinions and facts and don't back them up with any evidence. > I figure it's the least I can do. > > BAC - First off, ignore the last 4 quarters (1 year) of figures. > It's not really historically accurate. Ignoring the last year and > looking at the 4 previous --- you have a company growing at at least > 10% and last time I watched TV, it's making strategic acquisitions > to spur growth in the next 5 years. It's priced to shrink earnings. > This is not the case. Out of all banks, this is the only one that > I've considered owning lately (Besides citigroup since it got saved). > > > C - Citigroup has been growing at at least 7% over the past 5 years > under similar analysis and is priced to shrink faster than BAC. > > > That said, I've been staying away from banks for the last year since > I saw and heard about this one coming... I think there are better > deals out there, but the banks as you've seen are the first to rebound > the hardest. Hopefully you were smart enough to buy C earlier this > week (monday morning) > > HERO - Priced to grow at 1.8%, it's been growing revenues significantly > faster (80%) than that but the relationship between revenue growth > and net income(-24%) has not been as strong lately... I like NOV > and APA more. > > DRYS - this one should recover from the fact that commidity prices > are "bottoming" esp. if you are calling a market bottom. It's grown > Net income at 82%. Can they keep this up? Well --- anyone who knows > anything about the transpo business knows that there's no profitable > way to transport people, but transporting goods is the way to go. > My favorite transpo business distributes liquor (CEDC) > > As for the bottom, you're 5 days late and everyone's screaming "bottom." > > This could have been the bottom, look to global markets... there > are strong indicators that it's the bottom. I think it's the bottom. > But, I'm holding out a little bit, i've leveraged up 3 times at 9000, > 8500, and 8000. I'm saving one more time to leverage up at 7000 in > case the market is as unpredictable as I think it is. But I'm all > in. I think that the DOW is worth about 10500, but would be surprised > to see it reach that. If it does, it will overshoot to 11000+.
> > Hope this helps you guys!]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 17:40:11 -0500

On Nov 29 03:04 PM Glen Bradford wrote:

> It's unfortunate that a lot of the comments on this article just
> state random opinions and facts and don't back them up with any evidence.
> I figure it's the least I can do.
>
> BAC - First off, ignore the last 4 quarters (1 year) of figures.
> It's not really historically accurate. Ignoring the last year and
> looking at the 4 previous --- you have a company growing at at least
> 10% and last time I watched TV, it's making strategic acquisitions
> to spur growth in the next 5 years. It's priced to shrink earnings.
> This is not the case. Out of all banks, this is the only one that
> I've considered owning lately (Besides citigroup since it got saved).
>
>
> C - Citigroup has been growing at at least 7% over the past 5 years
> under similar analysis and is priced to shrink faster than BAC.
>
>
> That said, I've been staying away from banks for the last year since
> I saw and heard about this one coming... I think there are better
> deals out there, but the banks as you've seen are the first to rebound
> the hardest. Hopefully you were smart enough to buy C earlier this
> week (monday morning)
>
> HERO - Priced to grow at 1.8%, it's been growing revenues significantly
> faster (80%) than that but the relationship between revenue growth
> and net income(-24%) has not been as strong lately... I like NOV
> and APA more.
>
> DRYS - this one should recover from the fact that commidity prices
> are "bottoming" esp. if you are calling a market bottom. It's grown
> Net income at 82%. Can they keep this up? Well --- anyone who knows
> anything about the transpo business knows that there's no profitable
> way to transport people, but transporting goods is the way to go.
> My favorite transpo business distributes liquor (CEDC)
>
> As for the bottom, you're 5 days late and everyone's screaming "bottom."
>
> This could have been the bottom, look to global markets... there
> are strong indicators that it's the bottom. I think it's the bottom.
> But, I'm holding out a little bit, i've leveraged up 3 times at 9000,
> 8500, and 8000. I'm saving one more time to leverage up at 7000 in
> case the market is as unpredictable as I think it is. But I'm all
> in. I think that the DOW is worth about 10500, but would be surprised
> to see it reach that. If it does, it will overshoot to 11000+.

>
> Hope this helps you guys!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-320917 320917 Thu, 04 Dec 2008 13:06:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-320458 320458 Thu, 04 Dec 2008 01:04:03 -0500 TD CanadaTrust cashed in all my Canadian stock in Feb 2008 while Comerica sat on their hands while my US stocks sank. The dust hasn't settled for the financials, oils, and tech. Health and food stuff should be the first to rise. But i believe these will move premature.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-320431 320431 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 23:56:13 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-320401 320401 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 22:19:38 -0500
Just wondering.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-320270 320270 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:58:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-320259 320259 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:44:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-320254 320254 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:38:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-320223 320223 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:51:48 -0500
a) an economic recovery, and
b) a repetition of past trading patterns.

With both preconditions, the stock crashes and relatively prompt recoveries of 1987 and 2001 are being projected to occur again. Is that a valid assumption to make? Do drops and recoveries always work that way? Is it a law of economics that once all the retail investors have lost hope, things have to go up? Does past performance really predict future results?

Did that happen in Japan? Their market never again reached their 1980's high.

The thing that scares the hell out of me is currency instability. Massive amounts of money are being created and destroyed, and the chances of us having either Japanese deflation or out-of-control 1970's style inflation are higher than ever. Add in massive government debt and deficits and you have the possibility for the government to lose its credit rating as Noriel Roubini warns in the Financial Times today. If that's not gloomy enough, housing still needs to fall 20% to return to historic 100 year price to wages ratios, a million jobs connected to the big 3 will disappear bailiout or no bailout, unemployment is rising, and the consumer savings rate is still near zero.

That said, I cannot call the bottom, but I can ride right through it. Low prices are not a good reason to sell anything.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-319567 319567 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 05:36:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-319566 319566 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 05:32:40 -0500
But, seriously, can I lease time on your crystal ball?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-319556 319556 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 04:29:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-319490 319490 Nice call. The internet is forever. > Oh, Tacitus, they have facial recognition software now...]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 01:53:57 -0500

On Dec 01 05:36 PM squashnut wrote:

> Nice call. The internet is forever.
> Oh, Tacitus, they have facial recognition software now...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-319323 319323 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:09:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-319265 319265 Buying stocks now is just like getting into the winemaking business. > To make a small fortune, you have to start with a large one. > > "Tacitus", or whomever, anyone wanting to make a small fortune in > the market now better have a large one already in hand. Even Buffett > is down over $325M on his GE buy, and we give him the credit(deserved > or not) of being wiser than most. Maybe he still will be seen as > such, but it will take decades and he will be dead. > > Funny thing, I know, but I would like my investments to pay off while > I'm still alive.]]> Tue, 02 Dec 2008 17:59:58 -0500

On Dec 02 01:34 PM bobbobwhite wrote:

> Buying stocks now is just like getting into the winemaking business.
> To make a small fortune, you have to start with a large one.
>
> "Tacitus", or whomever, anyone wanting to make a small fortune in
> the market now better have a large one already in hand. Even Buffett
> is down over $325M on his GE buy, and we give him the credit(deserved
> or not) of being wiser than most. Maybe he still will be seen as
> such, but it will take decades and he will be dead.
>
> Funny thing, I know, but I would like my investments to pay off while
> I'm still alive.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-319261 319261 Like a wise man said about profits,"You can have the first and last > 20%. I'll take the middle 60%.]]> Tue, 02 Dec 2008 17:57:02 -0500

On Nov 28 09:50 AM xsuddensam wrote:

> Like a wise man said about profits,"You can have the first and last
> 20%. I'll take the middle 60%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-319144 319144 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 15:05:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-319065 319065 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 13:34:39 -0500
"Tacitus", or whomever, anyone wanting to make a small fortune in the market now better have a large one already in hand. Even Buffett is down over $325M on his GE buy, and we give him the credit(deserved or not) of being wiser than most. Maybe he still will be seen as such, but it will take decades and he will be dead.

Funny thing, I know, but I would like my investments to pay off while I'm still alive. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-319056 319056 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 13:24:10 -0500
"You can be a murdeous tyrant and the world will remember you fondly but f**k one horse and you will be known as a horse f**ker for all eternity."

Same can be said for bottom pickers that pimp stocks they have already bought. No cred and no class. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-318919 318919 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:29:30 -0500
Check out this site, very cool

www.freetradingquiz.com/]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-318570 318570 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 23:34:08 -0500
i still think it is until it's been proven wrong, today's sell-off has not changed that prediction a bit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-318566 318566 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 23:26:30 -0500
What is left to say but you are WRONG AGAIN so STFU with your GARBAGE BOTTOM CALLS!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-318531 318531 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 21:53:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-318523 318523 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 21:28:22 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-318499 318499 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 20:43:12 -0500 Don't even try if you don't know where is the 700B was spend by Paulson and 2 trillions Bernanke distributed with your taxmoney :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-318494 318494 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 20:36:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-318410 318410 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 17:36:10 -0500 Oh, Tacitus, they have facial recognition software now...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-318401 318401 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 17:10:47 -0500
Ooops, was that a bad call, or what?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108344-last-thursday-was-the-bottom-it-s-time-to-get-back-in?source=feed#comment-318393 318393 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 16:52:59 -0500