A Short History Of Commodity Bulls; Why This One May Be Different [View article]
Brian,
There indeed was an ability to print in the 1800's, especially after the new quasi-centralized national banking system was put in place after the Civil War. Private banks printed their own private bank notes over and above the stock of gold and silver in their vaults. This was the original definition of inflation - "inflating" the stock of paper not backed by metal. Of course, back then, if banks did this too much, it would start a run and force it to deflate back down. The inflation over the stock of metal would be the boom, and the deflation the bust. That was the business cycle back then. Nowadays the Fed can keep printing an infinitum until the big spectacular bust soon to come.
For more on this, check out chapter one of A History of Money and Banking in the United States.
A Short History Of Commodity Bulls; Why This One May Be Different [View article]
Brian -
Very insightful. I agree with most of what you're saying, and Volcker did quite singlehandedly save the fiat dollar for 30-40 years (we'll see how much longer it has). Dollar steam is completely running off of 80's interest rates. That tank is almost empty and Bernanke simply cannot refill it without bankrupting the Federal government completely.
Where I disagree is that the business cycle itself is not a natural economic thing and needs no "ironing out". Business cycles are a result of theft, plain and simple, theft that is sanctioned by government and allowed to continue. Business cycles are caused by printing money and forcing people to accept it. If money were free market and government enforced bank contracts to pay in gold at all times upon request and presentation of a note, there would be no business cycle, period. There would only be slow, gradual, growth.
Today In Commodities: The Broken Record Correction Prediction Plays On For Stocks [View article]
Matthew -
The 2000 and 2007 market tops took 15-20 months to fully materialize. It won't be any different in this case. We're looking at an extended topping process which should complete around the end of 2014, beginning 2015. Then the real "correction" will come, which will be more like a cyclical bear.
A Short History Of Commodity Bulls; Why This One May Be Different [View article]
Netbluesky - I’m honored that you took the time to respond so thoroughly to my article. This is obviously quite important to you and I’m glad. It is to me as well. Point by point, my response: 1) The Fed is dumping huge amounts of cash into the economy. I’m not sure what you mean when you claim that it isn’t. $85B per month in bond buying and MBS’s are being added electronically to the monetary base. Rogers is long the dollar for now because he knows that people will buy it in the short term out of fear, though it is the wrong thing to do, that he is clear about. Currencies will start collapsing from the weakest to the strongest, starting with the Yen, moving on to the Pound, then the Euro, and finally the dollar. 2) The chart of rising commodities essentially is a chart of inflation by definition. In my article I differentiate between inflation and price inflation. Any increase in the monetary base whatsoever is by definition inflation, because no increase is covered by any commodity. Whether this inflation changes prices or not is a different story and less important. In the 20’s there was massive inflation that did not change the price level because the increase in production during that time counteracted it. But the inflation taking place still arguably created the 20’s boom followed by the Great Depression bust. 3) GDP is a meaningless number. It accounts for all the money borrowed from other countries that the US did not produce. It also accounts for damage repaired from things like Hurricane Sandy, which does not add any net wealth to the country. It is an artificial, invented number that can yield no meaningful economic calculation. 4) Treasury bond backing is a fiction. Treasury bonds are promises to pay in dollars. You can’t back a piece of paper by a promise to pay that piece of paper. The logic is circular. Dollars are fiat. The “full economic might of our nation” that you refer to is also a fiction. The US borrows more money than it produces in wealth. So the economic might of the US is nothing but its ability to borrow. That is quite tenuous, an economic might dependent on countries giving it money. When the merry-go-round stops, that might will evaporate with severe consequences. 5) Your point on the Fed not providing liquidity during the depression has the cart before the horse. You’re basically quoting Milton Friedman, who was a monetary socialist. If the solution to depressions is printing money, then depressions would never happen. In fact, according to F.A. Hayek, depressions are caused by booms. Booms are caused by printing money. 6) I do not know how you claim the economy has been stable since 1913. Depressions were certainly not deeper and wider at all before 1913. There were only short panics caused by money printing which were over in less than a year. I’m not sure what you’re using as your metric to say such things. 7) FOREX is not at all fair. It is gambling based on divining the actions of central bankers. If I had a magic oil producing button, oil would lose value. Every central banker has a currency producing button. Therefore all currenies will fall. While all currencies tumble down a steep incline, real commodities keep gaining. One may strengthen in terms of others, but they are all going down in terms of what they can buy. 8) Rising and falling production and consumption are caused by monetary expansion. They are not natural, not in large swings as they have been happening lately. 9) Crashes in oil and other commodities follow booms, caused again by Fed balance sheet expansion. So if you’re asking whether the Fed has anything to do with the extreme volatility in oil and other commodities, the answer is yes. 10) Most of the Fed liquidity is indeed sitting idle. When it starts flowing, prices are going to rise fast.
A Short History Of Commodity Bulls; Why This One May Be Different [View article]
There indeed was an ability to print in the 1800's, especially after the new quasi-centralized national banking system was put in place after the Civil War. Private banks printed their own private bank notes over and above the stock of gold and silver in their vaults. This was the original definition of inflation - "inflating" the stock of paper not backed by metal. Of course, back then, if banks did this too much, it would start a run and force it to deflate back down. The inflation over the stock of metal would be the boom, and the deflation the bust. That was the business cycle back then. Nowadays the Fed can keep printing an infinitum until the big spectacular bust soon to come.
For more on this, check out chapter one of A History of Money and Banking in the United States.
http://bit.ly/14JeV6Z
it's a long chapter but a fun read.
A Short History Of Commodity Bulls; Why This One May Be Different [View article]
Very insightful. I agree with most of what you're saying, and Volcker did quite singlehandedly save the fiat dollar for 30-40 years (we'll see how much longer it has). Dollar steam is completely running off of 80's interest rates. That tank is almost empty and Bernanke simply cannot refill it without bankrupting the Federal government completely.
Where I disagree is that the business cycle itself is not a natural economic thing and needs no "ironing out". Business cycles are a result of theft, plain and simple, theft that is sanctioned by government and allowed to continue. Business cycles are caused by printing money and forcing people to accept it. If money were free market and government enforced bank contracts to pay in gold at all times upon request and presentation of a note, there would be no business cycle, period. There would only be slow, gradual, growth.
Today In Commodities: The Broken Record Correction Prediction Plays On For Stocks [View article]
The 2000 and 2007 market tops took 15-20 months to fully materialize. It won't be any different in this case. We're looking at an extended topping process which should complete around the end of 2014, beginning 2015. Then the real "correction" will come, which will be more like a cyclical bear.
A Short History Of Commodity Bulls; Why This One May Be Different [View article]
1) The Fed is dumping huge amounts of cash into the economy. I’m not sure what you mean when you claim that it isn’t. $85B per month in bond buying and MBS’s are being added electronically to the monetary base. Rogers is long the dollar for now because he knows that people will buy it in the short term out of fear, though it is the wrong thing to do, that he is clear about. Currencies will start collapsing from the weakest to the strongest, starting with the Yen, moving on to the Pound, then the Euro, and finally the dollar.
2) The chart of rising commodities essentially is a chart of inflation by definition. In my article I differentiate between inflation and price inflation. Any increase in the monetary base whatsoever is by definition inflation, because no increase is covered by any commodity. Whether this inflation changes prices or not is a different story and less important. In the 20’s there was massive inflation that did not change the price level because the increase in production during that time counteracted it. But the inflation taking place still arguably created the 20’s boom followed by the Great Depression bust.
3) GDP is a meaningless number. It accounts for all the money borrowed from other countries that the US did not produce. It also accounts for damage repaired from things like Hurricane Sandy, which does not add any net wealth to the country. It is an artificial, invented number that can yield no meaningful economic calculation.
4) Treasury bond backing is a fiction. Treasury bonds are promises to pay in dollars. You can’t back a piece of paper by a promise to pay that piece of paper. The logic is circular. Dollars are fiat. The “full economic might of our nation” that you refer to is also a fiction. The US borrows more money than it produces in wealth. So the economic might of the US is nothing but its ability to borrow. That is quite tenuous, an economic might dependent on countries giving it money. When the merry-go-round stops, that might will evaporate with severe consequences.
5) Your point on the Fed not providing liquidity during the depression has the cart before the horse. You’re basically quoting Milton Friedman, who was a monetary socialist. If the solution to depressions is printing money, then depressions would never happen. In fact, according to F.A. Hayek, depressions are caused by booms. Booms are caused by printing money.
6) I do not know how you claim the economy has been stable since 1913. Depressions were certainly not deeper and wider at all before 1913. There were only short panics caused by money printing which were over in less than a year. I’m not sure what you’re using as your metric to say such things.
7) FOREX is not at all fair. It is gambling based on divining the actions of central bankers. If I had a magic oil producing button, oil would lose value. Every central banker has a currency producing button. Therefore all currenies will fall. While all currencies tumble down a steep incline, real commodities keep gaining. One may strengthen in terms of others, but they are all going down in terms of what they can buy.
8) Rising and falling production and consumption are caused by monetary expansion. They are not natural, not in large swings as they have been happening lately.
9) Crashes in oil and other commodities follow booms, caused again by Fed balance sheet expansion. So if you’re asking whether the Fed has anything to do with the extreme volatility in oil and other commodities, the answer is yes.
10) Most of the Fed liquidity is indeed sitting idle. When it starts flowing, prices are going to rise fast.