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  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    PPS: The key sentence of the Reuters report (beyond insight into CEO Cook’s visit to BMW) is noting that talks have stalled due to Apple wanting to “explore developing a passenger car on its own”:
    Aug 1, 2015. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Electronic Arts, It's About Buying Into The Future [View article]
    PS: Katsenelson's PDF presentation and case for investing in EA (2012):

    http://bit.ly/1DYpwrf
    Aug 1, 2015. 07:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Electronic Arts, It's About Buying Into The Future [View article]
    From a stock perspective, EA moved from the teens to over $70 in recent years. I don't see a lot of value left, didn't people already price in the annual Battlefield and more digital sales?

    I remember that well-known value investors such as Katsenelson recommended the stock back in 2012:

    http://bit.ly/1DYoPy5

    That was a good call, but as I outlined the stock price was very low back then

    I had a small position in EA and then slowly sold out after the stock doubled.

    In summary, I would like to see more arguments in the article why the stock is STILL a buy at $50-70...I personally don't see it.
    Aug 1, 2015. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors preps autopilot software update [View news story]
    " What's about "Robotic Snake or Wall Snake Charger"? "

    The funny thing is VW already has automatic EV chargers (the one linked below is using Kuka robot arms), VW just didn't make a big hoopla about it:

    http://bit.ly/1LVDiRW

    Video: http://bit.ly/1LVDiS0

    I'm sure Tesla will tell us in a few months or years how they got that first.
    Jul 31, 2015. 09:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    More on a possible BMW x Apple car collaboration via Reuters:

    "Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook went to BMW's headquarters last year and senior Apple executives toured the carmaker's Leipzig factory to learn how it manufactures the i3 electric car, two sources familiar with the talks told Reuters.

    The dialogue ended without conclusion because Apple appears to want to explore developing a passenger car on its own, one of the sources said.

    Also, BMW is being cautious about sharing its manufacturing know-how because it wants to avoid becoming a mere supplier to a software or internet giant.

    During the visit, Apple executives asked BMW board members detailed questions about tooling and production and BMW executives signaled readiness to license parts, one of the sources said. News of the Leipzig visit first emerged in Germany's Manager-Magazin last week.

    "Apple executives were impressed with the fact that we abandoned traditional approaches to car making and started afresh. It chimed with the way they do things too," a senior BMW source said."

    http://reut.rs/1LVD0uc

    PS: This article follows up on an earlier article in German media about plans between BMW and Apple: http://bit.ly/1LVD1hO (in German)
    Jul 31, 2015. 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors preps autopilot software update [View news story]
    "Several people are required to do this? I thought the whole selling point was that it was automated... "

    Exactly, the process also seems to take much longer than advertised in the initial battery swap demo.

    If these stations WERE fully automated, opening hours would be 24/7.

    This is just another example of Tesla over-promising and then under-delivering.

    I predict battery swap options will be quietly shut down in the coming years.
    Jul 31, 2015. 12:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors to test referral program [View news story]
    And how did they do that? Spending record amounts...

    "SolarCity Corp.’s operating costs climbed 80 percent in the second quarter as Chief Executive Officer Lyndon Rive increased spending to maintain the company’s position as the top provider of U.S. rooftop solar systems.

    Sales and marketing expenses more than doubled, and total costs rose to $175.8 million from $97.2 million a year earlier, San Mateo, California-based SolarCity said Wednesday in a statement."

    http://tinyurl.com/owa...

    The solar installation business is more of a giant leasing operation / sector-specific financial lender (not actually "solar" companies per se) gambling with complex input factors (subsidies, lease renewal rates, cost of panels in the future, buy vs lease ratio, real interest rates...) 10-20 years into the future.

    I highly doubt most retail SCTY investors truly understand the financial mechanics and long-term risks behind this business - same for SCTY's competitors that are publicly traded. SCTY is just the prime example because it is built on Elon Musk hype and attracting more retail investors.
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors preps autopilot software update [View news story]
    But at least the Tesla battery swap stations are in full swing now...oh wait :)
    Jul 31, 2015. 10:16 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors preps autopilot software update [View news story]
    Hgh-end car brands offer the very same features, with similar suppliers (e.g. the overhyped MBLY) in their new models. Tesla leads in hype.
    Jul 31, 2015. 09:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors preps autopilot software update [View news story]
    How many times did they pre-announce this feature in recent months? I lost count. Same with the 'Model X' coming soon, coming really soon, almost there, just a little longer...
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:35 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors to test referral program [View news story]
    "So TFTF, If SCTY was valued the same as VSLR, where would it be?"

    Hard to tell since SUNE just offered a premium for VSLR, M&A process ongoing. VSLR stock jumped around 50% on the news.

    Until recently VSLR was trading at half its IPO price (around $1bn, IPO was close to $2bn). At 2.5x to 3x the VSLR marketshare, SCTY would trade much lower. That was just a quick overview using the market caps. You would have to dig deeper and look at the EV as well.
    Jul 31, 2015. 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys -16.9% on weak guidance, full-year withdrawal; 3D Systems -9.3% [View news story]
    I hope you weren't bullish on 3D printing stocks back in 2013-2014, otherwise you have lost 70 to 80% or even more with the stocks mentioned above.

    3D printing stocks currently are the mercy of day traders and rumor mills as IT heavyweights (such as the aformentioned HPQ) ponder an entry into the sector soon.

    I would time an entry over a few weeks or months (average pricing) even if most 3D printing stock prices look like "bargains" at the moment.
    Jul 30, 2015. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors to test referral program [View news story]
    Siddharth wrote: "...because the bigger the loss they make now the bigger their profit will be in the future"

    Oh yes, especially if easy credit breaks down between today and "the future". SCTY is at the mercy of its creditors and low interest rates to keep the business model going - with complicated external factors such as subsidies and renewal rates 10-20 years in the future (hard to model).

    If everything were so simple every solar installer - that includes SCTY rivals such as SUNE/VSLR and soon RUN - would be a money printing machine.
    History tells us otherwise. If something sounds too good to be true, it most often is.

    Many retail investors buy SCTY or TSLA stock because of the Elon Musk cult factor - without doing any fundamental homework.

    Potential customers may finally wake up one day and do the math: Buying a solar system (especially with rapidly falling panel prices) is the better solution for most than overpaying for a solar lease for many years.

    Remember that when the solar salesman rings at your door and promises you a "free" installation on your roof.
    Jul 30, 2015. 10:58 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Believe In Solar, ETFs Like TAN Could Be An Interesting Long-Term Investment [View instapost]
    Long-time readers may remember that I had warned about TAN a few months ago, two things have happened since then:

    1) The Chinese stock bubble popped, taking down prices of Chinese solar stocks (even though most of them were reasonably priced and NOT part of the infamous mainland Chinese bubble stocks).

    2) Removal of the problematic previous holding Hanergy by the TAN ETF committee (that stock was up to a 20% holding in TAN), see my previous blog entry for details: http://tinyurl.com/pwb...
    Jul 30, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys -16.9% on weak guidance, full-year withdrawal; 3D Systems -9.3% [View news story]
    Tough times for a former hype sector. Where are all the former bulls now?

    SSYS, DDD and XONE were priced to take over the world back at the end of 2013. The financial networks fell over themselves to hype up these 3D stocks and trot out the C-suite in the sector.

    The current stock prices of SSYS and DDD may present interesting entry points soon, just wait for a bottoming out first.

    And look for enough cash on the balance sheet - some smaller 3D companies might not make it through the downturn as new entrants (HPQ...) prepare their sector entry by 2016 and new printing technologies (Carbon 3D...) emerge.

    PS: More info on Carbon 3D's printing process here: http://tinyurl.com/os4...
    Jul 30, 2015. 10:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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