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  • New Apple TV? Ask Why, Not When [View article]
    Matthew wrote: "I love it when someone tries to argue that Apple could hurt Nintendo."

    Hmm, it's already happening. Apple - and Android - are hurting Nintendo (so far mostly on mobile, but that could soon change with devices like a new Apple TV):

    Look at the numbers/game sales of generic iOS mobile platforms on the app stores and Nintendo't falling revenues and profits, the future for dedicated hardware platforms (3DS etc.) becomes harder and harder.

    There's a reason why Nintendo caved in a few days ago and will bring its IP to mobile platforms. 2-3 years ago, they dismissed that idea flat out.
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modern Keynesian Economics For Cynics  [View instapost]
    PS: More on the topic of (public) debt, QE and other recent policy actions here:

    "There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch

    There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch (TANSTAAFL). Quantitative easing comes with a price. The question is, who will pay it? The unprecedented financial repression that we are seeing in the world has been foisting the cost of bailing out bankers and stock market investors onto the aching, sagging backs of savers and retirees. Some might consider that an acceptable outcome, given that the global financial system has recovered, after a fashion, from the Great Recession.

    But Paul Krugman and his neo-Keynesian colleagues, including most central bankers, seem to think they’re living in a free-lunch world. They are either not aware or do not care who is picking up the check."

    I encourage all readers interested to read Mauldin's entire column:

    http://bit.ly/1BI1AG0
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modern Keynesian Economics For Cynics  [View instapost]
    This is just an online cartoon lampooning Krugman's columns in the NYT.

    As for austerity, I think some of the measures did quite well in Nordic Euro countries (Baltic 3 and to some extent Iceland) to use a recent example.

    Of course some people disagree:

    http://bit.ly/1BHTXPY

    http://wapo.st/1BHXmhI

    I'm not advocating austerity as a catch-all cure, reality is very complex and sometimes also country-specific.

    But to spend and add more public debt to end economic problems doesn't work in the long run (emphasis on long run). I continue to believe that Japan will be one of the first developed economies to fail after following Krugman's "recipes":

    http://bloom.bg/1BHTXQ4

    That will be one expensive limo ride for Japan in a few years.
    Mar 31, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity moves higher after Musk promises new non-auto product [View news story]
    You should read my quote about Aquion above. Not all batteries are created equal.

    It doesn't make sense in many cases to use ESS cells/batteries for EVs and vice-versa.

    Different requirements, different prices, different weight and volume, different safety features...
    Mar 31, 2015. 03:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Apple TV? Ask Why, Not When [View article]
    The Apple Watch would likely be just one option, many people not interested in playing games wouldn't even need a controller and stick to the included remote.

    We should also not forget that Apple bought Primesense a while ago:

    http://tcrn.ch/IbxWEW

    Apple could go down the MSFT Kinect route or make a hybrid (3D controller and body movements) thanks to the Primesense IP:

    "PrimeSense became widely known in the sensor technology space for its early work with Microsoft’s Kinect gaming product, which uses cameras and depth sensors to capture players’ motions and incorporate them into Xbox gameplay. (Microsoft now deploys its own homegrown sensor technology for the current generation of Kinect devices, which ship with the recently launched Xbox One.)"

    But this is still speculation, maybe the Primesense technology is for future mobile devices and not the Apple TV, we will see.

    At least Apple has the IP for innovative game and TV UI controllers in-house thanks to Primesense.
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Having A Bumper March In Norway But That Just Brings The Ugliness Closer [View article]
    "So far, Tesla has been doing an admirable job of developing and marketing of a new product"

    Please go read their financial statements and mind the GAAP. We will not know for another five years if Tesla is able to turn a GAAP profit consistently.

    It is valued sky-high already, that is the issue with Tesla.
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is Having A Bumper March In Norway But That Just Brings The Ugliness Closer [View article]
    Yes, Norway's budget and its labor market will be hit hard if oil prices stay so low.
    It is indeed ironic that one of the countries with the highest EV subsidies globlly is so dependent on oil revenues and oil prices in the spot markets.

    And, as otzers pointed out, the local currency NOK fell hard against the USD, much like the EUR in recent months.
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity moves higher after Musk promises new non-auto product [View news story]
    "Tales,Tesla already has over 60% of all energy storage market share in califronia according to SGIP data."

    So tell me in dollars and cents how much revenue they are making besides car sales and leases (and ZEV credits)? It's close to zero ar the moment.

    The secotr (the list I linked is just for North America and focuses on start-ups) has and will have many battery suppliers and energy companies.

    And once again, home and ESS batteries and cells have very different requiremenstthan EV batteries. ESS batteries can be much heavier and have more volume - so they can be built cheaper. Take for example Aquion:

    "Aquion’s batteries aren’t pretty—picture big, bulky, black boxes—but they’re durable and have demonstrated an impressive storage capacity. Best of all, they use nontoxic materials and (unlike Lithium-based batteries) won’t overheat."

    Tesla can't just reuse their EV cells and compete on price given these competitors. Their fabeld Nevada factory is nowhere near ready in 2015. Why launch home batteries now?

    This looks like another premature announcement where Tesla is promising the world to investors.

    PS: Will SCTY be forced to use these batteries because Musk is involved in both companies? What if there are other and cheaper options from other suppliers? I don't think this makes sense for SCTY clients long-term either.
    Mar 30, 2015. 08:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Apple TV? Ask Why, Not When [View article]
    "Apple TV is not going to play on the same field as XBox One and PS4. "

    I agree and I don't think that's their intention. These high-end consoles also cost 4-5x more.

    On the other hand Apple could really hurt Nintendo in the space and grab a huge bite in the casual gaming sector (sort of a Wii-like casual gaming successor with the Apple Watch serving as an optional controller for both the TV and gaming functionality).

    Like with the iPad and iPhone, Apple would probably not even market the gaming capabilites heavily, they would just be there (I expect games to be the dominant revenue category once the Apple TV gains third-party apps).
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Apple TV? Ask Why, Not When [View article]
    Yes, John has a very good track record. Of course, plans could always change (especially with the TV, content negotiations could break down).

    But an unveil at the developer conference makes a lot of sense:

    - Unveil the new Apple TV Hardware with app support, give developers a few months time to develop "TV native" apps

    - Launch the device 4-5 months later when first apps/games are adapted for TV in time for the holiday season.

    I reiterate my prediction that the Apple Watch could serve as optional controller for the Apple TV (would also be useful for casual gaming).
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New product announcement coming from Tesla Motors on April 30 [View news story]
    There are tons of "game changers" in this space:

    http://bit.ly/1yRDIS6

    Neither TSLA nor SCTY are alone in this space. Unfortunately, sales are still very low in the space.

    But if it takes a tweet to move stocks for uninformed investors?!
    Tesla talked about this battery initiative for months, it's rehashed news.
    Mar 30, 2015. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity moves higher after Musk promises new non-auto product [View news story]
    The Gigafactory is nowhere near finished (pilot production in 2016 at the earliest), so Tesla can't equip cheaper batteries.

    Tesla has tons of issues and challenges getting its car sales in order (China, Germany sales below targets etc., Model X late twice...). Why does it want to dabble in other sectors?

    There are tons of players in this emerging ESS (battery storage) space:

    http://bit.ly/1yRDIS6
    Mar 30, 2015. 03:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Apple TV? Ask Why, Not When [View article]
    "That they missed buying Netflix when it was so cheap is unforgivable."

    Unfortunately, the margins aren't that great in the space. NFLX and competitors like AMZN even have to create their own content to keep costs down and get more leverage in negotiations with content owners.

    I think it was a wise move that Apple didn't overinvest in this space. Apps (especially games) and the home hub look like functions where Apple has more leverage going forward - rather than just outbidding everyone on content with lousy margins as a result.
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Apple TV? Ask Why, Not When [View article]
    PS: Here's a link to the new Apple TV (Buzzfeed news) story I mentioned above: http://bzfd.it/1ElWCWr

    That author nailed several Apple product introductions and other AAPL scoops in the past. If he says summer 2015 (WWDC) for new Apple Tv hardware I tend to believe that source.
    Mar 29, 2015. 02:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Apple TV? Ask Why, Not When [View article]
    Yes, I could even see the Watch being used as an optional controller in this scenario.
    Mar 29, 2015. 02:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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