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  • SolarCity Fires Warning Shot At Hawaii Utility: The Future Is Here [View article]
    There are plenty of prices if you follow the second link posted above to some of the companies listed (most of the quotes include inverters etc., Tesla doesn't).

    But that doesn't answer my question: If Tesla can offer low prices, Panasonic (or similar suppliers like Samsung or LG Chem) could even offer lower pricing for their own ESS solutions.

    There is no Gigafactory cell production for at least another 1.5 to 2 years.

    Tesla either subsidizes pricing or has surplus cells (contract with Panasonic Japan), otherwise it can't undercut its own cell supplier for the time being.
    May 3, 2015. 06:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: One More Step Towards Energy Domination [View article]
    "No other cell out there has the energy density that TSLA's cell has. There is no better technology at the moment."

    It's made by Panasonic and they can offer their own grid solutions. In fact, they already do so...

    http://bit.ly/1l5pzxk

    So what's Tesla's advantage (especially since the Gigafactory is nowhere mear ready)?

    If margins were that interesting and the technology so unique Panasonic would be swimming in cash and their ESS grid solutions would sell like hotcakes...
    May 3, 2015. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: One More Step Towards Energy Domination [View article]
    Energy domination?

    As I noted in other comments regarding SCTY:

    The list of ESS vendors is already long. The sector is getting very crowded while the TAM is still quite small:

    http://bit.ly/1zl3kL9

    That's about 50 companies offering battery/grid solutions and large solar companies partnering with them.

    As you can see in the link this features both startups and giants (ABB, Siemens, GE...) for residential and commercial-size ESS/grid solutions.

    I don't see specific advantages for SCTY.
    May 3, 2015. 03:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Fires Warning Shot At Hawaii Utility: The Future Is Here [View article]
    PS: And since TSLA made it sound as if they found the "missing piece" in their presentation I have to add: The list of ESS vendors is already long. The sector is getting very crowded while the TAM is still quite small:

    http://bit.ly/1zl3kL9

    As you can see in the link this features both startups and giants (ABB, Siemens, GE...) for residential and commercial-size ESS/grid solutions.

    I don't see huge margins ahead in this sector.

    Specific to TSLA/SCTY, it's not proven in the marketplace that ESS and EV batteries should be made from the same type of cells/chemistries. In this case, TSLA has no scale advantage even once their Gigafactory is ready.

    In any case, Panasonic holds the manufacturing know-how and can offer these cells to anyone in the future.

    Last week's PR hoopla made it sound like Tesla/Elon Musk magically invented the first home battery, this could not be further from the truth.
    May 3, 2015. 03:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Fires Warning Shot At Hawaii Utility: The Future Is Here [View article]
    Author wrote: "Before Tesla's announcement, nobody's expectations were for pricing this low, including mine. What this tells us is that Tesla's cost of batteries is lower than anyone thinks."

    If it were that easy Panasonic (who likely make these cells, unless TSA found a new supplier for ESS) would be swimming in cash, they already sell ESS directly:

    http://bit.ly/1l5pzxk

    TSLA and SCTY have to add some margins to their products, ergo Panasonic would enjoy an incredibly high margin on their own ESS products.

    If you check Panasonic's numbers the margins in this sector are not that high.

    So how does this fit the story? Should we all buy Panasonic ADR shares and swim in cash soon (note the slight irony)?
    May 3, 2015. 03:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Zenith Behind Us, Nadir On The Horizon [View article]
    Great comment.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Zenith Behind Us, Nadir On The Horizon [View article]
    Both of you may be right. Here's my theory on the next/updated Apple TV box:

    - Unveil at WWDC, includes SDK. Developers can start writing apps and get familair with the UI.

    - On sale before the holidays when enough apps and games are ready.

    - Meanwhile, the current Apple TV can remain on sale as a low-end entry model at $49-69.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook And Meerkat Need Each Other [View article]
    "I may do an article on YouTube and live video. Thanks for the idea! "

    Please go ahead, I look forward reading it :)

    It strikes me as interesting that GOOG both has dominant marketshare in mobile phones (at least indirectly via Android) and owns the dominant (especially on desktops) video site YouTube.

    Yet GOOG failed to jump on the mobile (live) streaming train so far on the production side of things - buying Periscope, Meerkat or YouNow would have been pocket change for GOOG.

    PS: Apparently, TWTR paid "slightly less than $100 million" for Periscope (I couldn't verify that number myself). A bargain compared to other inflated valuations in the social media space imho.
    Apr 30, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Zenith Behind Us, Nadir On The Horizon [View article]
    Author wrote: "Xiaomi sold 14 million of the 99 million smartphones sold in China in the first quarter..."

    I asked this question and hope to get an answer from MB.

    How much net income does Xiaomi make?

    What's the net income relative to Apple's net income? What is the outlook?

    Afaik, they can barely eek out an operating profit and the operating profits reported in Western media back in 2014 weren't accurate.

    It's easy to be #1 in market share when profits don't matter (see Dell in PCs or AMZN in e-commerce), however this doesn't add any market value or enterprise value long-term.

    PS: AAPL makes about 40-50% of _all_ profits in PCs with a single-digit marketshare in the PC space.
    You can also look at Porsche's profit in the auto space, market share alone is next to useless from an investor / shareholder perspective.
    Apr 30, 2015. 02:42 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Battery Storage Initiative Is Worth No More Than $3.60/Share To Tesla's Stock Price [View article]
    "Musk is more fallible than all humans? Nope, not buying it. "

    The second part refers to the fact that he spends around 50% of his work time at another company (Space X). He is basically a part-time CEO at TSLA.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Battery Storage Initiative Is Worth No More Than $3.60/Share To Tesla's Stock Price [View article]
    "TSLA is no .com bubble stock. TSLA and SCTY are both industry leaders in their chosen field."

    So was CSCO back in 1999, this was not a dotcom with no revenues. CSCO was the clear leader in networking and the Internet was the next big thing.

    Look what happened to CSCO's stock price back soon after (and CSCO is just one prominent example).

    Many of these companies aren't even around today. They were merged or sold for pennies on the dollar, the same happened in computer hardware and in solar (the concentration process in solar is still underway...).

    EVs will only have around 1% car marketshare by 2020, declaring TSLA as a "winner" in 2015 (or even in 2020 or 2025) is impossible. This space will take 2-3 decades to mature even if battery prices keep falling...
    Apr 29, 2015. 07:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook And Meerkat Need Each Other [View article]
    Yes, it works well from desktops, but what about streaming from _mobile_ devices? I think GOOG is lacking a compelling solution on mobile devices.

    GOOG already missed out on Twitch when it was for sale. Maybe they don't want to miss this trend? I agree that live streaming could be big:

    "The Race To Make Everyone A Livestreamer"

    http://tcrn.ch/1bW83bL

    At least as soon as more people can get cheap(er) mobile contracts with no data limits, that could take a few years in many countries...
    Apr 29, 2015. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook And Meerkat Need Each Other [View article]
    PS: Younow seems to be overlooked, but claims more users than Periscope/Meerkat: http://bit.ly/1bVOLmO They just need more compelling offers on mobile.
    Apr 29, 2015. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook And Meerkat Need Each Other [View article]
    Since Periscope was bought by TWTR it's rational to imagine Meerkat being scopped up by a social media giant sooner or later. The success in the mainstream is still a few years out in my opinion: 1) More people need unlimited bandwirh 2) Channels and celebrities need to evolve or existing streamers switch from Youtube, YouNow, Twitch or similar sites. Speaking of Youtube/GOOG, it's reasonable to assume they will create their own mobile stream service sooner or later or be a buyer.
    Apr 29, 2015. 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Battery Storage Initiative Is Worth No More Than $3.60/Share To Tesla's Stock Price [View article]
    The same was said in 1999 about the Internet space. Even if it turned out to be mostly true later most of these hyped companies at the peak of the dotcom bubble were gone 2-3 years later of their valuations crushed.

    Even CSCO and other big boys suffered for years with depressed valuations, the Nasdaq took 15 years to get back to peak levels on nominal terms.

    Just because batteries or EVs may become more important doesn't mean valuations from TSLA (or SCTY for that matter) make sense long-term...
    Apr 28, 2015. 10:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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