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Tales From The Future

 
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  • An Interesting Area For 2014, 2015 And Beyond: Sensors For The Internet Of Things [View instapost]
    INVN recently acquired two smaller companies that may fit well into a solution for AAPL:

    "InvenSense to Acquire Sensor Nav Companies Trusted Positioning and Movea"

    http://bit.ly/1whXnw4

    Investors must await the iWatch launch for confirmation, but the puzzle pieces would fit very well with Apple's rumored device(s).
    Aug 22 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan: Land Of The Setting Sun [View article]
    Yes, that was uncalled for in an article imho, especially coupled with the "teasing".

    It's also funny the authors make their teased strategy a big secret (or at least that's how I read it). Other people have been openly promoting similar trades on the Internet for years (e.g. at shortjapandebt dot com, I didn't put an active link on purpose). How different can this trade be?

    The problem with such Japan trades is timing. Kyle Bass and other famous investors have been talking about Japan's debt problem for years, e.g. http://bit.ly/1whUBXM (3 pages).

    As long as the BoJ prints money and absorbs JGBs (there is no basically no "open" JGB market any longer) the shell game continues. It may take a few more years or a catalyst (rapidly rising interest rates) to unravel the public debt issue - I doubt most retail investors can/want to wait that long.

    PS: I do agree with Kyle Bass's findings, but it may take years until his scenario plays out.
    Aug 22 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Reasons Why The US And Other Major Stock Markets Could Soon Top Out... [View instapost]
    Some additional interesting bearish indicators as of mid-2014 are discussed here:

    http://bit.ly/1whSi77

    Especially interesting: Total assets invested in equity mutual funds and ETFs compared to the total assets invested in money market funds (chart from Sentimentrader).
    Aug 22 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPad Problem Is Lenovo's Wintel Tablet [View article]
    Author wrote: " As I have done in the past with iPhone shipments, in the chart below I plot Apple's share of the top five tablet vendors, based on IDC's data"

    As with iPhones, a second chart would probably be helpful: Gross/operating margins and ASPs of these five vendors.

    Marketshare doesn't help Apple competitors (and their shareholders) if only Apple achieves meaningful profits in the long run.

    Apple never was ahout "selling the most", it however has by far the highest margins in the hardware sector - and it keep these margins fairly stable, even in the 30-year old PC market where it gets roughly 50% of all profits with a low marketshare.

    PS: In addition to pure HW profits, Apple also makes more money from the ecosystem from customers over the iDevice (iTunes/Beats music, apps etc.) life cycle.
    Aug 22 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nobel Prize Winner Shiller Is Damaging His Reputation With CAPE Ratio Talk [View article]
    Shiller never intended (as far as I understand from all his interviews and papers) CAPE to be a short-term market indicator. A few months to 1-2 years out, CAPE is indeed a weak indicator.

    The studies above show good predictive power for periods around 5-10 or more years. That's a reasonable amount of time for some long-term investors; for example people saving or investing money for retirement often have even longer time periods in mind.
    Aug 22 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 4 Potential Takeover Targets [View article]
    sorry type, above should read: "...already hired a lot of key BBRY employees..."

    Just some recent examples: http://bit.ly/1hB2230 and http://bit.ly/1ohWsBK
    Aug 22 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nobel Prize Winner Shiller Is Damaging His Reputation With CAPE Ratio Talk [View article]
    Exactly, I went into more details on time periods and CAPE prediction accuracy in my comment below.
    Aug 22 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nobel Prize Winner Shiller Is Damaging His Reputation With CAPE Ratio Talk [View article]
    Author wrote: "If market participants are aware some data point has predictive power, then they have every incentive to incorporate that measure into market prices"

    Well, a single indicator is never a tell-all magic prediction tool, markets are complex, investors should always look at different indicators.

    But the CAPE has predictive power. May I quote two studies:

    "We devote the first part of the paper to the empirical analysis and we show that the CAPE is a powerful predictor of future long run performances of the market not only for the U.S. but also for countries such us Belgium, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland"

    And a second study is also quoted in the link:

    "Klement finds that CAPE is a reliable long-term valuation indicator for developed and emerging markets. Klement uses the indicator to predict real returns on local equity markets over the next five to ten years "

    http://bit.ly/1ohVTIf

    My emphasis would be on LONG-RUN and FIVE to TEN years in the quotes above.

    Summary: CAPE alongside other fundamental indicators like total market cap / GDP are good *long-term* indicators imho, but should always be used in conjunction with more data (e.g. the current and predicted rate of bond yields and interest rate levels as stock investment alternatives).
    Aug 22 12:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 4 Potential Takeover Targets [View article]
    But wouldn't Apple just buy/license the patents in this case, why buy the entire BBRY at $5+ billion with all the bagagge and assets/work contracts attached?

    They already hired a lot of BBRY after the latest rounds of layoffs in Canada.

    It's probably easier and cheaper for Apple to just pick up the BBRY pieces they are interested in.
    Aug 22 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: An Analysis Of Retained Value And A Price Comparison Of Its Offerings [View article]
    "Since silevo will produce 340w panels as opposed to 250w panels(standard panel) they will save 25% of panel requirements per installation."

    But given that Silevo won't mass-produce until 2016 or so, won't all the big Chinese competitors have similar panels? Most of them are now touting 20-24% efficiency panels coming online in new fabs.

    For example, JASO in June 2014:

    "JA Solar Starts Mass Production of PERCIUM Solar Cell, Conversion Efficiency Reaches 20.4%" http://bit.ly/1whfceF
    Aug 22 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: An Analysis Of Retained Value And A Price Comparison Of Its Offerings [View article]
    Thanks, I came to the same conclusion (unless sbsidies and other icentives change).

    Another question will be margins on small retail-size solar system vs large solar plants (where FSLR and SPWR seems to put more focus on).

    I don't see why installing retail systems will be more profitable considering the need to acquire ever-larger numbers of new households every year.

    This point was also bought up by the Vivint CEO recently (who is able to cross-sell other products to homeowners):

    "SOLAR WAR: CEO Of Upstart Solar Company Vivint Takes A Huge Shot At Elon Musk's SolarCity"

    "I'm not afraid of Elon Musk and SolarCity. I'm telling you right now, we will pass them up. We have 800,000 customers on a platform, they have 85. We have a sales force that dwarfs their sales force."

    Read more: http://read.bi/1whchTp

    That is of course a lot of trash-talk among competitors, but he has a point imo.
    Aug 22 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iWatch Profit Potential [View article]
    "Poll everyone you know who worships at the iAltar. So far, 8 iPeople I know want nothing to do with an iWatch and 3 said something other than no"

    But cue back to 2007. How many people would have predicted a success in the smartphone market against the (then) giants BBRY and NOK - even after the iPhone was unveiled and just asking among "hardcore" Apple users?

    Most estimated the iPhone would only be a success in a tiny niche and maybe get 5% or so marketshare in smartphones.

    While I have open questions on wearable design and battery life (see my previous comments), I wouldn't underestimate Apple given the amount of people they hired for this project from the fashion and fitness/medical community.

    PS: Even assuming a rare flop like the Mac Cube a few years ago, Apple has more than enough cash to simply move on.
    Aug 22 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Rated Ripe: Too Scared To Touch It [View article]
    "Never fall in love with a stock. It's like falling in love with a stripper. So very exciting at the start, so certain to disappoint somewhere down the line."

    Wise words. Nothing to add :)
    Aug 22 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iWatch Profit Potential [View article]
    Fundtionality is one thing, but there are nasty details like battery life and design (see my previous comments for details) in wearables - as with all new Apple products expectations may also be overblown after months of rumors.

    AAPL has fine minds working on these issues, but I would like to await the final details on design (customization opportunites, not everyone wants the same look on his/her wrist) and battery charging (inductive etc.?) before loading up more - and keep an eye on the general market at all-time highs.

    Numbers-wise, I expect the wearable and Beats segments (combined) maybe add $20 billion in revenue in a best case scenario. Coupled with higher sales of the larger iPhone6, I expect AAPL to do $200-225 billion in revenue in 2015+ (my PT's therefore are $110-125 in a best-case scenario and assuming similar margins).
    Aug 22 03:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iWatch Profit Potential [View article]
    "In fact, I'd say you were leaving money on the table."

    That is correct, but I don't like the general high valuations of the stock market going into 2015-2016. A major correction will take all stocks down, even if AAPL is (still) more reasonably priced compared to the overall QQQ.

    iWatch-specific, I want to await price and design details. AAPL is known for good design, but I would like mor details on customization options (it's really important for consumers that a wrist watch looks unique).

    Apart from design, the battery question remains important. I'm sure AAPL found an interesting solution, but I would like more details there too.

    Since expectations are so high and widely rumored for months, there could also be buying opportunities after the introduction. Some features could only come with an iWatch version 2 or 3 down the road...

    PS: Potential new suppliers like INVN provide even more upside, but of course also more risk/volatility. These are positions I manage more actively on a short-term basis.
    Aug 22 03:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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