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Tales From The Future

 
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  • Millennials have the steering wheel now [View news story]
    "But over time that share will increase and surpass the market share of ICE. "

    Define over time. In my opinion, this will take DECADES, not years (for more details, see my recent Instablog about the "21 years" and BMW).

    EVs (and FCVs) will remain below 1% global car marketshare at least until 2020 (as long as we don't include PHEVs with pure EVs).
    Jan 31, 2015. 03:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials have the steering wheel now [View news story]
    "...when the mass market sub $50k Tesla model hits the market."

    Given Tesla's ongoing delays, some millennials will at least have their student loans repaid by the time the Model 3 finally ships in numbers.

    I think renting cars (Zipcar...) or new sharing services (Lyft, Uber...) will have more impact on cars for millennials than Tesla or EVs in general.

    PS: Both the Nissan Leaf 2 and the Chevy Bolt will most probably beat the Model 3 to market with a mass-market 200-mile EV.
    Jan 31, 2015. 03:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Twitter's brass backs Costolo, worried about activists [View news story]
    A related question: As most readers certainly know already, TWTR has recently announced product changes, namely adding group chat and video:

    http://bit.ly/1Lw91IU

    While the harsh 30-seconds video limit (basically "Vine times 4 or 5") for regular users is in line with the 140-chars limit, it seems unnecessarily short.

    Why would TWTR limit that (especially as long as there is no autoplay) and not make it at least one minute?

    PS: And why not expand on the 140-chars limit as well? It seems too short many times, 200-500 chars would be more adequate as mobile screens get bigger.
    Jan 31, 2015. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials have the steering wheel now [View news story]
    PS: The above was a response to Frank's post, somehow it didn't show up indented, sorry (sent from iOS app, I will file a but report on SA).
    Jan 31, 2015. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials have the steering wheel now [View news story]
    "Translation: They all want a Tesla. Just ask them."

    In this case Tesla would have a backlog of millions of cars already. They don't - and of top of that they couldn't even get to the earlier 35k target in 2014. Other car companies ship that volume in a few days...that's the reality.
    Jan 31, 2015. 11:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials have the steering wheel now [View news story]
    A good point. The recent rise in subprime auto loans is concerning too. Many people with cars who can barely make monthly payments, auto and student loans are the next credit bubbles to burst.
    Jan 31, 2015. 11:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials have the steering wheel now [View news story]
    "Millennials are likely to have a lot to say with the critical question on if electric batteries or hydrogen fuel cells (Tesla vs. Toyota) emerge as the dominant alternative energy source for the industry."
    I don't understand this last sentence; both FCVs and EVs have fringe (below 1%) marketshare over the next years. They won't make any impact on the bottom line ofbig carmakers.
    Jan 31, 2015. 10:49 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Word Sums Up Google's Problem [View article]
    That's why I think GOOG will have a problem on mobile. So far, FB and others have managed to monetize mobile usage much better than GOOG(L).
    Jan 30, 2015. 02:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to talk earnings and deliveries on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    "...evolving on model S and Model X?"

    The Model X is now 2+ years late and it "evolved" from the S.

    The Model 3 was once supposed to come out by late 2014.

    I will believe the Model 3 launch date when I see the car on sale in Tesla showrooms and driving on the streets, not before.

    Tesla has a long history of over-promising on launch dates and pricing.
    Jan 30, 2015. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Loser Strategy [View article]
    "Apple's China Mobile launch falls flat:
    http://nyti.ms/1eGK631"

    It's probably time to put this assumption to rest after calendar Q4 2014, China was one of the main drivers for Apple.
    Jan 30, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to talk earnings and deliveries on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    I wrote "I really don't think..." above.

    All cars have development and testing times, 2017 looks very unlikely given the current state of the car.

    TSLA can't magically shrink these development and testing times, especially when it needs to cut Model 3 BOM costs with lots of R&D to make the promised $35k base price.

    And it has more than enough than enough work until the end of 2015 to get the Model X out the door, not everything works in parallel (not even at huge car companies multiple times the size of TSLA).
    Jan 30, 2015. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Word Sums Up Google's Problem [View article]
    I would have guessed "Mobile" after reading the headline :)
    Jan 30, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google, Fidelity investing $1B in SpaceX (updated) [View news story]
    PPS: And not to forget VSAT, they have a headstart with high-bandwidth Internet via satellites:

    http://bit.ly/1ydQcRy

    VSAT will increase coverage and speed a lot before Space X even launches its first satellite:

    http://bloom.bg/1ydQJ61

    Then we have the most interesting areas and paying customers (inflight, ships, oil platforms etc.) covered.

    Where's the revenue potential beyond that? I don't see it since terrestrial coverage will be at 4G or even 5G by 2020 in populated areas with purchasing power.
    Jan 30, 2015. 07:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to talk earnings and deliveries on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    The Model 3 will NOT be unveiled before 2016 (direct statement from CEO Musk at NAIAS 2015 on the showfloor).

    They haven't even decided on the final design direction: Musk also said they haven't decided yet whether they would go for something "radically" different or a smaller version of the Model S.

    I really don't think we will see this car on sale in 2017 (as anticipated in the current filings), 2018-2019 looks much more likely at this point.
    Jan 29, 2015. 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to talk earnings and deliveries on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    PS: cybern wrote: "I think it will have favorable impact on battery costs."

    The battery supply contract with Panasonic (for cells made in Japan) may be adjusted from time to time depending on raw material costs and USD/JPY rates, see the Tesla 10-K attachment from 2/2014. It's not like Panasonic will eat up all the losses from a weaker JPY forever on their side.
    Jan 29, 2015. 03:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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