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  • Tesla EPS Estimates Drop As Earnings Approach [View article]
    @Beacon Hill, please let me know why EPS estimates were (and still are) drastically cut for TSLA while most stock price targets remain high as ever (issued by the very same analysts who cut Tesla's EPS forecasts).

    Many of these sell-side analysts value Tesla in the ballpark of GM, HMC or similar large car companies.

    That was my question/remark.
    May 4, 2015. 09:54 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Powerwall Battery Hype Justified? [View article]
    If you buy enough shares of both companies near all-time highs you should get a free signed Elon Musk poster. Act now. Quantities limited. It's the ultimate fanboy package.

    PS: No seriously, the space is already full of competition (here's a long list of grid battery vendors, I posted this link before): http://bit.ly/1zl3kL9
    May 4, 2015. 09:40 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Storage Battery Big Picture [View article]
    Jukka wrote: "It takes only one man with vision to change the world "

    I neither understand vision nor "missing piece" (which has the label of Tesla's presentation) in this context.

    Everbody following alternative energy has known for years that the combination of decentralized solar/wind generation, EVs/PHEVs and battery grid storage go well together as prices slowly down (what some analysts described as the magic triangle).

    There are literally dozens of companies already selling similar storage batteries for both residential and commercial use:

    http://bit.ly/1zl3kL9

    And the list in the link above is far from complete, many EU and Asian players are missing.

    If anything, Musk/Tesla is late to this sector (which so far hasn't shown its revenue promise, sales are only taking off slowly, it may take 5-20 years and new battery types for battery storage to make sense).

    PS: Even if prices come down, this "triangle" will only work well for single family houses with ample space for solar on the roof and a personal garage to charge the car (overnight) and place the home battery.
    May 4, 2015. 09:26 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Fires Warning Shot At Hawaii Utility: The Future Is Here [View article]
    Gt1135 wrote: "It reminds me how Apple convinced half the world that they had created the first and only smart phone. Tales, can you remind me how that has worked out for Apple?"

    If you want to make that analogy how about new battery tech that will displace the current Li-Ion standard in the future?

    This sector is still very young, SCTY could end up being the Blackberry example.

    Panasonic is not Foxconn in this analogy either. They sell their own branded ESS solutions, see my links above ( http://bit.ly/1l5pzxk ).

    PPS: Finally BlakeG is totally wrong about my views on AAPL since over a decade but let's leave it at that.
    May 4, 2015. 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla EPS Estimates Drop As Earnings Approach [View article]
    While EPS estimates come down some bullish analysts never seem to adjust their stock price targets - because somehow by around 2025 TSLA will make that all up in additional profits (and guide us into utopia).

    I wish I had such a clear crystal ball, but maybe it's rather hoping to sell equities or bonds in a new capital round for these companies. TSLA will likely remain a good customer for Wall Street...huge potential conflicts of interest.
    May 4, 2015. 02:33 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will SolarCity Stop Misrepresenting Its Financials? [View article]
    If you go long in a nascent sector at all costs, why not choose an ETF?

    Despite the possible current issues in popular sectors ETFs like TAN (Hanergy is a huge holding in 2015 within TAN, can't go into details here) it's much safer in my opinion to invest in this sector using an ETF than trying to pick winners at this point.

    SCTY in particular is creating huge risks with its upcoming 2016 solar panel plant.
    May 3, 2015. 04:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 10kWh Back-Up Battery [View article]
    Yes, the Sonnenbattery company (link you mentioned) was a pioneer in the residential battery market.

    Now there dozens of companies offering similar batteries for residential and commercial use:

    http://bit.ly/1zl3kL9

    (Note this also includes Panasonic where Tesla most likely gets its cells)

    However, the residential market is quite small. Sonnenbattery only sold about 4000-5000 units over the past few years (they started exporting to the US market in late 2014).

    In short, still a limited TAM and lots of competition already.
    May 3, 2015. 03:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Fires Warning Shot At Hawaii Utility: The Future Is Here [View article]
    There are plenty of prices if you follow the second link posted above to some of the companies listed (most of the quotes include inverters etc., Tesla doesn't).

    But that doesn't answer my question: If Tesla can offer low prices, Panasonic (or similar suppliers like Samsung or LG Chem) could even offer lower pricing for their own ESS solutions.

    There is no Gigafactory cell production for at least another 1.5 to 2 years.

    Tesla either subsidizes pricing or has surplus cells (contract with Panasonic Japan), otherwise it can't undercut its own cell supplier for the time being.
    May 3, 2015. 06:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: One More Step Towards Energy Domination [View article]
    "No other cell out there has the energy density that TSLA's cell has. There is no better technology at the moment."

    It's made by Panasonic and they can offer their own grid solutions. In fact, they already do so...

    http://bit.ly/1l5pzxk

    So what's Tesla's advantage (especially since the Gigafactory is nowhere mear ready)?

    If margins were that interesting and the technology so unique Panasonic would be swimming in cash and their ESS grid solutions would sell like hotcakes...
    May 3, 2015. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: One More Step Towards Energy Domination [View article]
    Energy domination?

    As I noted in other comments regarding SCTY:

    The list of ESS vendors is already long. The sector is getting very crowded while the TAM is still quite small:

    http://bit.ly/1zl3kL9

    That's about 50 companies offering battery/grid solutions and large solar companies partnering with them.

    As you can see in the link this features both startups and giants (ABB, Siemens, GE...) for residential and commercial-size ESS/grid solutions.

    I don't see specific advantages for SCTY.
    May 3, 2015. 03:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Fires Warning Shot At Hawaii Utility: The Future Is Here [View article]
    PS: And since TSLA made it sound as if they found the "missing piece" in their presentation I have to add: The list of ESS vendors is already long. The sector is getting very crowded while the TAM is still quite small:

    http://bit.ly/1zl3kL9

    As you can see in the link this features both startups and giants (ABB, Siemens, GE...) for residential and commercial-size ESS/grid solutions.

    I don't see huge margins ahead in this sector.

    Specific to TSLA/SCTY, it's not proven in the marketplace that ESS and EV batteries should be made from the same type of cells/chemistries. In this case, TSLA has no scale advantage even once their Gigafactory is ready.

    In any case, Panasonic holds the manufacturing know-how and can offer these cells to anyone in the future.

    Last week's PR hoopla made it sound like Tesla/Elon Musk magically invented the first home battery, this could not be further from the truth.
    May 3, 2015. 03:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Fires Warning Shot At Hawaii Utility: The Future Is Here [View article]
    Author wrote: "Before Tesla's announcement, nobody's expectations were for pricing this low, including mine. What this tells us is that Tesla's cost of batteries is lower than anyone thinks."

    If it were that easy Panasonic (who likely make these cells, unless TSA found a new supplier for ESS) would be swimming in cash, they already sell ESS directly:

    http://bit.ly/1l5pzxk

    TSLA and SCTY have to add some margins to their products, ergo Panasonic would enjoy an incredibly high margin on their own ESS products.

    If you check Panasonic's numbers the margins in this sector are not that high.

    So how does this fit the story? Should we all buy Panasonic ADR shares and swim in cash soon (note the slight irony)?
    May 3, 2015. 03:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Zenith Behind Us, Nadir On The Horizon [View article]
    Great comment.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Zenith Behind Us, Nadir On The Horizon [View article]
    Both of you may be right. Here's my theory on the next/updated Apple TV box:

    - Unveil at WWDC, includes SDK. Developers can start writing apps and get familair with the UI.

    - On sale before the holidays when enough apps and games are ready.

    - Meanwhile, the current Apple TV can remain on sale as a low-end entry model at $49-69.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook And Meerkat Need Each Other [View article]
    "I may do an article on YouTube and live video. Thanks for the idea! "

    Please go ahead, I look forward reading it :)

    It strikes me as interesting that GOOG both has dominant marketshare in mobile phones (at least indirectly via Android) and owns the dominant (especially on desktops) video site YouTube.

    Yet GOOG failed to jump on the mobile (live) streaming train so far on the production side of things - buying Periscope, Meerkat or YouNow would have been pocket change for GOOG.

    PS: Apparently, TWTR paid "slightly less than $100 million" for Periscope (I couldn't verify that number myself). A bargain compared to other inflated valuations in the social media space imho.
    Apr 30, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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