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  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    The VW Golf (even the older 2012 version) has one of the best NCAP ratings in its class:

    I don't think the average car consumer will demand more than that or even assume the e-Golf is somehow unsafe.

    Finally, the e-Golf can be tested today and thousands have been sold in Europe already. The TSLA Model 3 on the other hand doesn't even exist on a sketch in public...not useful to compare these two cars in terms of safety or other featurs. One is real and for sale, the other doesn't exist.
    Oct 22 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Overlooked In Apple's Q4 Conference Call [View article]
    @Gumby. An expensive mechanical Swiss watch is an (especially male) fashion, collector or status statement first, and a timekeeper second.

    Any cheap Casio, Timex or Fossil is more accurate for telling the time today. Nobody "needs" to spend thousands of $ for a Rolex, Hublot or Omega to just tell the time. I therefore see little overlap for these high-end brands with most versions of the Apple Watch, the Apple Watch will likely "endanger" the lower-end and mid-price watch segments up to $500 or $1k to a greater extent.
    Oct 22 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    Arondaniel wrote: "Saying an EV is "based on" a gas car seems to be a kind of shorthand for a bonnet full of motors & electronics and a trunk full of batteries and a not so compelling driving experience."

    VW has already proven that one can build an EV with almost no compromise (no trunk space lost etc.) using an ICE design. The VW e-Golf design is proof this can be accomplished well:

    There are also huge savings because large car makers can build these cars on their "normal" ICE assembly line.

    Otherwise please let me know what's so wrong with the e-Golf design.

    PS: Volkswagen is also working on updates with 200-300km of real-world range by 2016 thanks to better battery chemistry:
    Oct 22 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    Gordnr wrote: "200 mile range in 6 yrs, hopefully. Where will Tesla be by then? "

    Both GM and Nissan will 200-mile mass-market EVs will before then. Please note I wrote that they will likely beat the Model 3 to market if TSLA encounters further delays. Details e.g. here:
    Oct 22 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    A factory in China isn't built overnight, especially since they need to find a suitable JV partner first. According to TSLA's timeline the Model 3 should be on sale in 2017. If so, they would need a plant in China (at least for final assembly) by that date to avoid import and other taxes.

    Otherwise, I don't see how they are competitve with all the other EV brands that produce locally and get more subsidies (local brands like BYD or JVs like Denza, Venucia, Zinoro etc.)
    Oct 22 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    "Hard to see how Chademo in Japan and CCS in the US/Europe will dominate."

    They already dominate today. Chademo is covering all of Japan already and CCS will soon be covering Europe. The US will follow within 2-3 years. CCS-equipped vehicles were just a bit late to come to the US market from VW, GM etc., the stattion delay will soon vanish once more EVs with CCS plugs are on sale.

    The two standards will be updated once bigger batteries are available in vehicles from major car makers. The current plugs can still be used at up two twice the current kW rates. For example, Kia already supports Chademo @ 100kW in its new Kia Soul EV:

    Public money is poured into multi-chargers that support both CCS and Chademo plugs and allows access for most charging cards/payment methods (like roaming with mobile phones).

    100kW is plenty enough for most mid-range electric vehicles. 150-200kW is the upper limit anyway with current and near-term battery technology.

    Chademo and CCS members can upgrade their standards as needed beyond 100-150kW once new battery tech is available commercially in the future.
    Oct 22 01:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    "In the first prototypes an efficiency of 97.4 % has been achieved for the inductive power transmission at a coil distance of 13 cm"

    Davewmart, thanks for the link. That's the first time I have heard of such a high number, the previous one was 92%. 97+% at 22kW reads impressive, I hope they can enter production status soon and confirm these numbers. That would be ideal for destination charging (and maybe also home charging at a reduced 6-12 kW).
    Oct 22 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fallout At GTAT - Lessons Learned (And The Impact For Apple) [View instapost]

    Thanks, I didn't follow all the details because I have no GTAT stock. The question is if GTAT is able to sell that many furnaces (I think they have a full year to accomplish the sell-off) at a good price and not in a firesale with huge discounts.

    Now we have to see what value is attached to the rest of GTAT's business, mainly solar.
    Oct 22 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    The CCS standard and plug is already established by all Western car makers, as Davewmart mentioned. There are now over 500 charging points in Europe, rapidly growing:

    Chademo in Japan and CCS in the US/Europe (and their successors with likely compatible plug design) will be the dominant two global standards, meanwhile China has established its own third fast-charging standard.

    There may also be some slower wireless charging in the future, but currently the efficiency is too low. I doubt regulators (especially in the EU) will accept these losses on wireless chargers.

    I therefore don't see the rest of the industry ever adopting Tesla's system and plug. The Mercedes B EV doesn't even have a fast-charging option...
    Oct 22 10:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why So Bearish? [View article]
    I don't think Q3 matters much beyond short-term trading. Most of TSLA's stock price depends on the X and especially Model 3, the S is just a tiny portion of revenues to justify their current valuation.

    Renewed bearishness beyond Q3 and into 2015 could include:

    - Another delay in Model X in 2015, especially in volume ramp-up? That could be biggest stumbling point in 2015.

    - Slower than expected ramp-up in battery factory until 2020 (because Panasonic is overly cautious and doesn't want to over-invest)?

    - TSLA being overly optimistic in China, early results may not match expectations. Also, TSLA still has no local partner and manufacturing base in China (major open issue, especially for the Model 3).

    - More competition for the Model 3 from big car makers who announced their own 200-mile EVs in the same price range (Nissan, VW, GM, BMW etc.) before 2020 and more PHEVs flooding the market (Audi, Mercedes, Porsche, Volvo...) at the high-end.

    - TSLA not being able to keep the promised Model 3 base price ($35k) and introduction dates. The competition such as GM and Nissan could beat them to market in late 2016-2017.
    Oct 22 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Overlooked In Apple's Q4 Conference Call [View article]
    And what are the operating margins for most of these Android device makers? Study their margins and operating profits and compare to AAPL.

    Except for a few high-end Samsung and Sony phones that have some brand recognition, most Android vendors sell on price and are barely in the black. They have trouble differentiating because they all use the same Android base, this results in never-ending price wars with razor-thin margins.

    AAPl also gets more lifetime revenue thanks to apps and services, most Android makers have to rely on hardware margins alone.
    Oct 22 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Overlooked In Apple's Q4 Conference Call [View article]
    I doubt it could work over so long (more sensors and future thinner watch versions will make compatibility harder and harder beyond 5 or so years).

    But Apple could at least make an upgrade possible for one or two chip generations, eg. by letting buyers update the S1 Watch chip for a newer S2 or S3 (and maybe also the battery).

    Otherwise, I also don't see why and how even very affluent people will buy the gold version that's obsolete once watch version two ships..

    PS: There are already third-party iPhone luxury mods that let you add golden cases or diamonds etc. for thousands of dollars, but these are niche markets. I'm not sure why Apple wants to offer such Watch versions in the upper four-digit range (in USD) themselves if there's no upgrade option.
    Oct 22 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Overlooked In Apple's Q4 Conference Call [View article]
    Author wrote: "But if Apple Watch's price is going to span a huge range, say something like $349 to $3499, it makes tremendously more sense for Apple to want to keep this information close to the vest"

    I'm still surprised there was no talk of upgrades for the high-end Watch versions or if Apple is deliberately not disclosing that yet. It will be interesting to see how (maybe third-party luxury watch channels? ) and how many Edition watches they will sell. The electronics will be obsolete in 3-5 years, what will the buyer do then with a golden watch? Not even the battery looks (easily) replacable. Buyers accept this for smartphones and tablets today, but they are in much lower price ranges.

    If they indeed use solid gold, the price will be even far above $ 3500. This is new territory for Apple (both fickly fashion business and different distribution channels).

    I think the Watch sales ramp-up could be slower and the replacement cycles longer than for other iDevices, so it's probably wise to subsume this segment under "Other" to take pressure away from the first and second Watch version. I guess the third or later Watch version be stand-alone and increase the sales potential.
    Oct 22 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Gigafactory cost savings begin in 2018 or later [View news story]
    Most of the conclusions make sense to me, especially the

    - battery plant R&D and expansion in stages (due to Panasonic being a burnt child in battery over investment and write-downs from the Panasonic-Sanyo merger) and the

    - higher than promised/estimated price for the Model 3. The base price of $35k will be very hard to hit if TSLA wants to keep some operating margins.
    Oct 22 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daimler unloads Tesla stake, affirms partnership [View news story]
    "Guess they saw doom on the horizon as you say they do today."

    Where did I talk of doom? I wrote that it doesn't make sense for Daimler to sell all TSLA stock if they were interested in a very tight or even increased future cooperation with TSLA.

    It looks to me like Tesla's ties with Toyota are cut for good and the future relationsship with Daimler in terms of tangible projects seems vague (despite the nice wording in the PR, that's what PR people are here for).
    Oct 22 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment