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  • Tesla deliveries surge 52% to company record [View news story]
    " That is not how the luxury auto business works."

    Tesla's huge valuation premium is about energy storage, the Model 3 and beyond and not about its current niche - because 11k units/quarter is nothing but a tiny niche in the global car market.

    Now, this Model3 at a promised base price of just $35k (let's forget the future Model4, which should be priced even lower according to Tesla) isn't a luxury and not even a high-end car.

    Either the Model3 is a simple mass-market car (nothing unique compared to other mass-market EVs in 2-3 years with similar range) at these base prices or Tesla has to...

    a.) cut features
    b.) raise the price

    in my opinion. We shall see.
    Jul 3, 2015. 06:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla deliveries surge 52% to company record [View news story]
    IronHog wrote: "Nothing pleases me more than being able to watch a guy named Talesfromthefuture be wrong all the time, on a company literally shaping our future."

    Please let me know where I was wrong exactly. I'm not that interested in what Tesla does this or next quarter. My long-term predictions include (and I stand by those):

    - China and other important car markets outside the U.S. remain weak for Tesla.
    Tesla is spreading itself very thin at an early stage (heavy investments coupled with low sales in places like Germany and China...)

    - Model 3 will likely be delayed once again. In the meantime, Tesla will need more money for that car and the Gigafactory (billions of USD).

    - The Gigafactory is a giant gamble with very uncertain outcome (new battery tech could make it obsolete or at least require heavy new investments in 5-10 years).

    - Tesla's debt burden could become a huge headache within 1-3 years, especially in case of a downturn.
    There is likely dilution with new shares etc.

    - Moving downmarket with Model3 will create new problems for Tesla (lower margins, more competition in that segment) compared to auto giants.

    - Longer-term, all major car makers will sell more EVs/PHEVs in case demand picks up or legislation changes. I see no unique, long-term advantage for Tesla (especially not with a Model3 or Model4 in entrenched $20-50k price range).

    - There will likely be new entrants in the car sector with EVs (even more competition, might include giants like Apple).

    - Cars and stationary storage are a low-margin business. Tesla's valuation doesn't make sense compared to competitors in these two sectors.

    - The company doesn't engage in honest communication (or at least engages in hyperbole). This management and communication style is often a sign of deeper problems beneath.
    Jul 3, 2015. 04:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview Of Electric Car Announcements At Frankfurt Auto Show [View article]
    Tesla publicly said they will show a Model3 design in 2016, not before.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview Of Electric Car Announcements At Frankfurt Auto Show [View article]
    Afaik BYD is mostly focused on domestic sales for passenger cars after failing exports with the prior e6 EV, but they still export large EV buses (quite successfully).

    Sooner or later I guess they will export passenger cars again, but the Chinese market is potentially so big that they are not in a hurry.

    BYD is the clear PHEV sales leader in China at the moment:

    http://bit.ly/1KtdJqI
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Escape The $130 Resistance Level [View article]
    PPS: Let's keep in mind the Q2 number of $2.33 was achieved with a high number of over 61 million iPhones:

    http://tcrn.ch/1Ktb9Rl

    Even with a high sustained number of iPhone sales and adding Watch sales it's hard to arrive at EPS well above $2 in both Q3 and Q4 imho.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Greek Stocks Today [View article]
    Investing is rarely a game where the bravest player wins. I don't see the risk-reward ratio.

    There are at least three banks in the GREK top holdings:

    http://bit.ly/1eZ7cZh

    For that reason alone I wouldn't touch the ETF at the moment.
    Jun 30, 2015. 09:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Escape The $130 Resistance Level [View article]
    PS: Calling the Estimize numbers "lower" is an understatement, they are far lower (therefore the combined $4 for the last two quarters in FY 15 is probably a stretch already, yet we only arrive at $9.4 in EPS for FY 15).

    Could the author elaborate how he arrives at EPS above $10 in FY 2015?
    Jun 30, 2015. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Escape The $130 Resistance Level [View article]
    I have an understanding problem with this article. Is is based on fiscal years (as it says) or the calendar year?

    As we all know: " What is Apple's fiscal year?
    Apple’s fiscal year 2015 runs from September 28, 2014 through September 26, 2015."

    I don't see how Apple can arrive at beyond $10 in EPS in FY 2015.

    Therefore the mentioned iPhone 6S / 6S Plus (or whatever the next iPhone will be called) will most likely have (amost) will have no effect on FY 15 numbers since the new phones will ship later.

    According to Estimize, the numbers will be lower:

    http://tinyurl.com/q6p...

    The number was far off in FQ1 2015, but close to reality in FQ2 2015, so even assuming around very optimistic $2 for each remaining quarter we arrive at "only" around $9.5 to $10 in EPS numbers for FY 2015:

    $3.06 + $2.33 + $4 for the two remaining quarters (and adding a combined extra of up to $0.5-$0.6 for a surprise in Watch sales or highly sustained iPhone6 sales for Q3 and Q4; note that this is not my projection, but a highly optimistic assumption to somehow arrive at $10).

    The Q3 and Q4 quarters are always the slowest for Apple - unless the new iPhone would ship much earlier this year and affect Q4 more heavily.
    Jun 30, 2015. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Superior Business Model May Justify Tesla's Stock Price [View article]
    WhosSideRUon wrote: "I doubt TSLA will have a hard time selling 500k vehicles in 2020."

    Even so, that's not disuption. As I pointed out above, that's merely a 0.5% car marketshare by 2020.

    Toyota, GM and and VW each sell more than 10 M cars (slightly above 10% marketshare each) a year, they are not disrupted by 500k units/year from tesla.

    And don't you think major car companies will introduce more EVs and PHEVs in this scenario (if/once EVs get more demand)?

    GM for example will already introduce the Bolt in 1-2 years from today.
    Jun 30, 2015. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Superior Business Model May Justify Tesla's Stock Price [View article]
    No, not based on current bailouts: Greece once enjoyed a healthy influx of FDI from optimistic foreign investors (based on Greece joining the EU, a single currency, the 2004 Olympics etc. etc.) looking for a good ROI.

    I obviously don't want to directly compare a country to a car company, but potential mal-investment and over-investment in boom phases relate to both cases.

    Tesla and similar companies would have never gotten the bond deals if not for the current ZIRP enviroment and easy money (resulting in distorted risk/return, mal-investments and artificially low yields).
    Jun 30, 2015. 01:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Superior Business Model May Justify Tesla's Stock Price [View article]
    fastmilton wrote: "TSLA is a disruptor."

    I'm tired of repeating the same stats, but Tesla is not a disruptor and can't be one in the traditional sense of the word based on the slow mechanics of the car market:

    2020: Tesla's best-case scenario is sales of 500k units/year

    2020: Global passenger car market will be around 100M units/year.

    Tesla will just have a 0.5% marketshare in this best case, that's not disruption - or somebody has to explain to me his definition of disruption.

    And again, this is the absolute best-case scenario (2020 sales projections from Tesla and uber-bullish analysts).

    Also note that Tesla will have to move down-market to achieve these numbers (Model 3), meaning more competition (GM Bolt, Nissan Leaf 2, Audi, BMW, VW...) and lower margins in the $30-50k segment.

    By 2020, all major car brands will have dozens of PHEVs and EVs in their model portfolio (GM; Nissan; BMW and VW are there by 2018 already).
    Jun 30, 2015. 12:59 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Superior Business Model May Justify Tesla's Stock Price [View article]
    NiceWhileItLasted wrote: "Foul! You know that the article is talking about sales in the US only, so your response is 100% pure FUD. "

    What? How do you value a publicly traded company? Based on picking sales in a single country based on your discrection - and ignoring other sales?

    Do you have stock in an imaginary Tesla subsidary based on U.S. sales?

    It's getting more ridiculous by the minute.

    This is a stock website, not some fan forum.
    Jun 30, 2015. 12:47 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Superior Business Model May Justify Tesla's Stock Price [View article]
    Tech Talker wrote: "Nissan Leaf failed to outsell the Model S in the first 5 months of 2015 in the US "

    What? Do you value a stock based on US sales? This is a stock website and I don't understand your metrics. Only WORLDWIDE sales count.

    There is no separate U.S. subsidiary of Tesla you can buy shares in.
    Jun 30, 2015. 12:45 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Superior Business Model May Justify Tesla's Stock Price [View article]
    Capt601, then how come Nissan-Renault is selling more EVs than anyone else?

    "RENAULT-NISSAN ALLIANCE SELLS ITS 250,000TH ELECTRIC VEHICLE

    Historic EV milestone reached in early June
    Alliance sells half of all EVs globally
    EV sales up nearly 15 percent through May vs. same period last year
    Nissan LEAF remains world’s best-selling EV"

    See more at: http://tinyurl.com/nrl...

    BMW already sells EVs directly abroad. One example:

    http://tinyurl.com/qg3...

    The dealer distribution model is not in stone forever, especially outside the U.S. However, a mixed model seems to make sense dependent on the country (or buying out successful dealers or concentrating the distribution network, that process is ongoing regardless of Tesla).
    Jun 30, 2015. 12:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Superior Business Model May Justify Tesla's Stock Price [View article]
    Greece also had "high access" to cheap capital in past decades. We know how that model ended...
    Jun 30, 2015. 11:55 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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