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Tales From The Future

 
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  • The Second Coming? Augmented Reality To Virtual Reality And Everything In Between [View instapost]
    Samsung in the VR space is looking for the same thing too:

    "Samsung doesn't know where virtual reality is headed, but it has a plan

    The company wants to get an army of developers behind its Gear VR platform as quickly as possible"

    "SAMSUNG IS TRYING TO FIND THE FIRST KILLER APP FOR VR"

    http://bit.ly/1wSIOgS

    All I can say is good luck. The search outside of specialized vertical use cases may take years...especially as long as we can't use lens-like, lightweight retina projectors instead of bulky glasses.
    Nov 12, 2014. 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Special Investment Rules? [View article]
    Surferbroadband, if you don't see the execution and time management risks of Elon Musk being involved in three major ventures (SCTY, TSLA and Space X), each loaded with lots of outside debt, good luck to you.

    Especially because Musk keeps shopping around new ventures such as Internet satellites (see my link above) requiring billions in fresh capital again and has lots of media appearances...

    Sooner or later execution problems and new delays will likely creep up.

    Whenever "excited" investors talk about "special rules" or "this is different" after a stock rose several hundred percent, a turning point is usually near.
    Nov 12, 2014. 05:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Special Investment Rules? [View article]
    Exactly. Apple has billions in the bank yet it doesn't lose its focus and generates very high operating margins.

    TSLA and its CEO on the other hand keep announcing new dreams/ventures that are years off (with very shaky return promises based on lots of assumption).

    TSLA should maybe focus on stable, real GAAP profits for the next few years before announcing new initiatives every other day.

    Lots of vision and ideas often doesn't equal to flawless execution.
    Nov 11, 2014. 07:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Special Investment Rules? [View article]
    "...becoming an interplanetary species"

    Which is another example of lack of focus. Musk seems to start another billion USD venture every other year - with other people's money. Now it's the turn of Internet satellites...

    http://ti.me/1tZFj60

    Don't you see the risk? He spends only half his working time at/for TSLA.
    Nov 11, 2014. 07:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Special Investment Rules? [View article]
    <<Morgan Stanley analysts believe the Model 3 will arrive in Tesla showrooms in 2017.. .>>

    It's funny how analysts still believe in Model 3 timeline promises from TSLA when both the Model S and the Model X were delayed for years.

    I highly doubt the Model 3 will be for sale before 2018 (and even that looks quite optimistic).
    Nov 11, 2014. 07:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 18 Reasons Herbalife Is Still A Great Short: Target $0 [View article]
    Great article and summary of open risks in HLF (even below $40).

    It will just take time and patience on the short side until the regulators make their move (and let's not forget about foreign regulators jumping in once the US regulators start moving.)
    Nov 11, 2014. 11:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Inc. Vs. BMW: Which Is The Future EV Leader? [View article]
    I don't question the car of the fact that most owners really like their Model S (and soon the SD), I question TSLA's current valuation (especially since their future Model X and Model3 cars may be delayed again.

    The competiton is not sleeping until 2020, especially in the Model 3 mass-market EV segment. Nissan-Renault, GM, BMW, VW and others will have cars in that space...now maybe even before TSLA launches the Model 3).
    Nov 11, 2014. 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AAPL Remains "IPhone Inc." For 2015 (And Maybe Beyond) [View instapost]
    In this wide-ranging talk, CEO Cook confirmed that he expects the iPhone family to contribute more than 50% of revenues for quite some time...the video is worth watching for anyone interested in AAPL:

    "WSJ Posts Full Video of Tim Cook Discussing Apple Pay, Apple Watch, and More" (from October 2014)

    http://bit.ly/1swTATN
    Nov 11, 2014. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Inc. Vs. BMW: Which Is The Future EV Leader? [View article]
    Yes, this BMW x TSLA rumor is nothing more than a rehash of this June 2014 (!) "news" (or rather planted rumor) from the same site:

    http://bit.ly/1swKBlC

    Old unconfirmed rumors repeated months later with no news or confirmation, the sad state of modern Internet "journalism".

    PS: All the German car manufacturers have agreed to use the CCS fast-charging standard already. Newer EVs from VW and BMW already include this CCS plug on their cars.
    Nov 11, 2014. 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Earnings Highlight Spending Ramp-Up And A Time To Sell [View article]
    " And Tesla continues to have the most energy dense and lowest cost pack. "

    We will see if that's still the case by around 2020. There are many projections that other battery types (from vendors such as LG Chem) will match it or be better in terms of Wh/L or Wh/kg and pricing in a few years.

    There's a reason many big car makers signed contracts for EV batteries with LG Chem and some peers recently for puch/prismatic cells (and not small cylindrical cells).
    Nov 11, 2014. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Inc. Vs. BMW: Which Is The Future EV Leader? [View article]
    Author wrote: "Also it was reported that Tesla and BMW executives met earlier this year to talk about putting together a standard electric car charging network."

    This is pure speculation. Is here any confirmation these talks even happened?

    This reminds me of other rumors: It was once "reported" that Apple was in talks with Tesla. This rumor was conveniently used to boost TSLA stock price ahead of a major capital increase. Nothing was heard of these AAPL x TSLA rumors thereafter (in fact, Apple's CarPlay still isn't suppported on Tesla cars, go figure, almost every other car brand is supported and listed on Apple's page).

    I don't see what BMW's interest in Tesla would be since...

    - BMW recently signed a bilion-euro-supply deal with Samsung SDI for EV batteries

    - BMW uses the cross-vendor CCS charging standard and plug (with now 550+ charging stations in Europe alone: http://ccs-map.eu )

    etc.
    Nov 11, 2014. 09:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: What Matters Most? [View article]
    "2018 is being very optimistic, unless Tesla's SEC filing is harder to penetrate than I thought"

    I agree, but since most TSLA bulls would otherwise paint me again as a permabear I used 2018.

    The Model 3 could well come in 2019-2020 only. What I'm quite confident about is that it won't arrive in volumes before 2018 given the latest Model X delays and SEC filings.

    @Bonaire. I expect further major dilution or capital increases since TSLA will need most of their current funds for the Gigafactory and international expansion, there will be little left for the Model 3 tooling and ramp-up in a few years.

    PS: Or TSLA could turn around and sell the Model 3 for $45-55k and forget what they promised about a $35k base price. Then it could maybe arrive a little earlier, but it would no longer be the original "mass-market car" competing with EVs like the Nissan Leaf 2.0 etc.
    Nov 11, 2014. 08:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Earnings Highlight Spending Ramp-Up And A Time To Sell [View article]
    "GM used A123"

    I never disputed that, see my quote above. But GM long switched to LG Chem and they still stick to their old cell size configurations.

    My point was that GM (like other big car makers) continues to believe small cylindrical cells are not the better solution long-term and that LG and other suppliers can bring costs down over the next few years.
    Nov 11, 2014. 04:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Home Hubs (And Possibly The Apple TV) [View instapost]
    This announcement from AAPL partner Imagination Tech shows how far casual graphics have come:

    "10 November 2014

    Scalable PowerVR Series7 GPUs target applications from wearables to servers, reaching teraflop performance

    · Highly efficient Series7 architecture scales from 20+ GFLOPS to near 1.5 TFLOPS

    · Series7XT GPUs offer up to 512 cores for next-generation servers and 3D gaming consoles"

    http://bit.ly/1u2I6Nq

    These figures are more than good enough for 2K and 4K video output as well as most casual games (the numbers surpass the last console generation such as the Xbox360 and PS3 !).
    Nov 10, 2014. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Tesla's "Mass-Market" Model 3 Car Go On Sale? My Guess Is 2018 (Or Even Later) [View instapost]
    Apparently CEO Musk is also scheduled to speak in Jan 2015 in Detroit alongside many other auto execs:

    39th annual Automotive News World Congress Detroit

    http://bit.ly/1yre4C7

    Maybe they will show a (non-working) design mock-up of the Model3 for the first time in 2015 (?).

    Tesla has a history of announcing cars and displaying mock-ups well ahead of the actual launch date, but who knows if the Model 3 is following the same pattern?

    The Model 3 mock-up could cannibalize some low-end Model S 60 sales if announced too early...especially given Tesla's history of delays.
    Nov 10, 2014. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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