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  • The Gigafactory gets a bull call [View news story]
    Sanyo (or what remains of Sanyo today, they sold off some assets once they got under the Panasonic umbrella) is a 100% subsidiary of Panasonic since 2010-2011.

    Panasonic is already an investor (so far the only one) in the Gigafactory.

    It makes no sense for Sanyo to "invest" in the GF, it's not an independent entity any longer:

    " SANYO Electic Co.,Ltd. has become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Panasonic Corporation on April 1,2011 ans beforehand, its shares were delisted on March 29, 2011."

    http://bit.ly/15twARx

    I expect an analyst to know that in late 2014. When he wrote this (October 2014) Panasonic was already an investor.

    If you follow my prior link Trip also expected Tesla to unveil the Model 3 at the event in October 2014, didn't happen either:

    "...it is very likely that Tesla will unveil the Model 3, the mass market Tesla car [in October 2014]."

    Summary: This analyst has been wrong on both AAPL and TSLA most of the time.
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Latest Sales Projection For 2025 Is Next To Impossible To Achieve [View article]
    I don't read Fox or Fox Business, but somebody pointed me to a good article on Fox Business that makes very similar points:

    "Tesla’s Elon Musk: Master of Hyperbole"

    (...)

    "When it comes to making predictions about almost anything that matters -- launch dates, production volumes, and profitability -- Musk consistently overpromises and under-delivers, and not by small measures, either. He’s often wrong by years and integer factors, if not orders of magnitude.

    While he admits to being “too optimistic” and having “a problem with punctuality,” that doesn’t really cut it, at least not for me. It implies that his claims eventually come true, if not just a little on the late side. That’s anything but true."

    http://fxn.ws/1C4LOcF

    I could better understand Musk overpromising back in 2008 and early 2009 when Tesla was in survival mode and in desperate need of funds to keep the company afloat (Daimler saved Tesla back then: http://aol.it/RHnYfR ) in midst of the financial crisis fallout.

    In 2015, long past the IPO and with billions in obligations to bondholders and with many retail shareholders, TSLA should finally cut back on such promises...
    Jan 21, 2015. 07:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Wars 2015: First Shots Fired In Europe (EUR/CHF Goes Berserk) [View instapost]
    A few more potential flashpoints in 2015 and beyond compiled from Bloomberg:

    http://bloom.bg/15trxka
    Jan 21, 2015. 07:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out Apple: Here Comes Xiaomi, Microsoft Might Be Right Behind [View article]
    Apple has nothing to fear at the top end in Asia after the iPhone 6/6+ launched:

    "Apple's share of the smartphone market in Asia has risen significantly since the launch of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus in September, according to market research firm Counterpoint (via The Wall Street Journal). The biggest market share gains for the iPhone came in Japan, China, and South Korea, with the iPhone seeing a 33% market share during November in the latter country. This only trailed rival and South Korean company Samsung, which had a 46% market share after holding a 60% market share. "

    http://bit.ly/15thnQF
    Jan 21, 2015. 04:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google, Fidelity investing $1B in SpaceX (updated) [View news story]
    PS: And these niche uses for satellite communications are already served today by the likes of...

    - Iridium (IRDM)
    - GlobalStar (GSAT)

    in my opinion for sparsely populated areas and in case of emergencies or disasters.
    Jan 20, 2015. 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google, Fidelity investing $1B in SpaceX (updated) [View news story]
    StepUp wrote: " The more people who have internet access, the better for Google. If you don't understand this you should not be investing in these types of technology stocks. "

    Name me populated nations or regions with high purchasing power (emphasis on purchasing power) with no Internet access in 2015?

    By 2020 (Musk himself admitted he can't have the satellites up before in a best-case scenario) we have even better coverage and 5G networks (lower deployment costs and wireless speeds around or even above 1 Gb/s !).

    Where's the ROI for satellite internet by 2020 (beyond niche use cases)?

    GOOG is wasting shareholder money once again (as with Glass, Nest and Motorola before).
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google, Fidelity investing $1B in SpaceX (updated) [View news story]
    Now what about the other $9 billion missing...

    Musk said it will take many, many years to have his Internet service up and running. “People should not expect this to be active sooner than five years,” he said. And it’ll be expensive: Around $10 billion to build, he says. “But we see it as a long-term revenue source for SpaceX to be able to fund a city on Mars.”

    http://buswk.co/1Bih0Ga

    Nobody creates cities on Mars for $10bn and then some magic cash-flow, let alone $1bn.

    This venture will swallow funds like mad for years, if not decades (besides I'm not convinced of the ROI for "Space/Satellite Internet" when most of the populated Earth is well covered with cell towers and fiber optic cables by 2020.)
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gigafactory gets a bull call [View news story]
    Or here:

    http://for.tn/1sqYbbF

    Which earned him this title:

    "How wrong-headed can one Apple analyst be?"

    Coming back to Tesla, this is a guy who wrote in October 2014:

    "There are still 3 potential investors in GigaFactory – LG Chem, Sanyo and Apple –"

    http://bit.ly/1ulbWt1

    Sanyo. I kid you not. Sanyo is owned by Panasonic, the merger was years ago - and Panasonic is already an investor in the GF, so he got it wrong twice in one sentence.
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gigafactory gets a bull call [View news story]
    "Next up the Texas Giga outside San Antonio."

    And who will pay for that (or any future plant, Tesla would also need new additional car plants beyond 500k cars/year, not just battery factories)?
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Google nearing investment in Elon Musk's SpaceX [View news story]
    PS: Musk doesn't expect his satellites up before 2020 at the earliest, that's according to this BW link:

    "Musk said it will take many, many years to have his Internet service up and running. “People should not expect this to be active sooner than five years,” he said. And it’ll be expensive: Around $10 billion to build, he says. “But we see it as a long-term revenue source for SpaceX to be able to fund a city on Mars.”"

    http://buswk.co/1ukt16D

    And Musk usually is way too optimistic regarding timelines. By 2020, we will have 5G networks...

    http://bit.ly/1ukt3ex

    at up to and above proposed 1 Gb/s and with lower deployment costs compared to 4G networks. I ask again: Where is the business model and ROI for Internet satellite deployment beyond current niche use cases?
    Jan 20, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Did Tesla Tell Its Analysts And Largest Shareholders? [View article]
    What about discussing the actual content of the article?

    It raises interesting questions: Either Tesla grows like mad (and doesn't show a profit for years to come, assuming demand is really there in the mass-market with the Model 3 and later) OR it shows a profit soon.

    Until today, Wall Street somehow combined the two scenarios into an impossible one: Grow like gangbusters and show a profit in 2015 already (and all that in a very cap-ex intensive industry like auto, mind you !).
    Jan 20, 2015. 10:41 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Google nearing investment in Elon Musk's SpaceX [View news story]
    Alex, do you really think terabits of data will come from satellites soon? Why are Verizon and peers legacy folks, I would like to hear more details...

    What about latency (even if latency is a bit better for low-orbit)? What about battery life in mobile devices? What about worldwide capacity?

    Cell towers and underground fiber-optic cables are here to stay for a very long time as dominant players in my opinion.

    Satellite two-way data Internet will be for niche uses and sparsely populated areas only (i.e. poor returns on investment in most cases).
    Jan 20, 2015. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lack Of Momentum Hitting Tesla [View article]
    @rv3lynn, nice to know every soccer mom (or her husband) has $100k+ to spend on a new Tesla SUV. Even a new Porsche Cayenne PHEV. is. Cheaper with a few options added, and Porsche isn't exactly known for making cheap cars.

    The Model X will sell into a small niche beyond the early adopters and believers who already pre-ordered (especially if gas prices stay low into 2016 and with many PHEVs coming in the SUV category from all brands).
    Jan 20, 2015. 08:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Google nearing investment in Elon Musk's SpaceX [View news story]
    Take for example Africa, there are many cables now with redundancy:

    http://bit.ly/1DX0wEs

    There is not a single cable to cut.

    One of the fastest connections is just being upgraded:

    http://www.eassy.org (eassy)

    I used Africa on purpose because it had the worst connections until a few years ago compared to other continents, that's over.

    Add to that cell towers with 3G and 4G in most countries by the end of this decade in virtually all populated areas and I don't see the need for "Internet in the sky" except for niche uses.

    These niche uses are already served by existing players (Iridium etc.).
    Jan 20, 2015. 02:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Google nearing investment in Elon Musk's SpaceX [View news story]
    Or telcos could add a few cell towers in places where lots of people actually live? Where's the ROI for remote areas? Iridium and similar offerings already exist for the niche uses in other areas.

    PS: Billions were wasted on Iridium as well (Chapter 11 back in '99): http://cnet.co/1AD7UOU
    Jan 19, 2015. 03:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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