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  • Apple's September 9 Event: Will There Be A Surprise Product? [View article]
    @silli-con: Do you have links/sources that Apple bought Intelligent Energy?

    As far as I know, IE only showed off some fuel-cell prototypes on their own and is BELIEVED to be MAYBE working with Apple:

    http://tinyurl.com/ntq...

    Big difference.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's September 9 Event: Will There Be A Surprise Product? [View article]
    Good comment.

    I think the interesting question is if Apple wants to create its own core HW products in this home/home automation category (Apple devices similar to HW such as Nest from Google or Echo from Amazon...) instead of just licensing third-party products and letting people use iPhones/iPads or Apple Watches to steer the home hub.

    The new Apple TV (option: include a router in the device to simplify things) could become a home hub controlling all these home devices.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's September 9 Event: Will There Be A Surprise Product? [View article]
    I clicked on this article to learn more (e.g. links to new educated rumor sources) about this 'surprise' product. Unfortunately, over 90% of the article content was about stuff described for months (new Apple TV box, new phones...).

    There are three HW areas where I see Apple theoretically expanding their platform over the coming years:

    - Expanding wearable category: AR/VR devices such as goggles. An unproven field with lots of entrants over the coming 12-24 months (HTC, Sony, FB, MSFT...),
    I'm not yet sold on the mass appeal of VR outside of core gaming and B2B niches.

    - Home automation devices (e.g. products a la Nest from Google or Echo from Amazon), these devices could work in tandem with the new Apple TV box. It remains doubtful if Apple really wants enter this area with HW or leave it to licensed third parties.

    - Apple car/transportation solution. This will probably take another 3-5 years until the product is ready, especially if the car features advanced assisted driving options.

    From an investor standpoint, the last category by far has the largest revenue potential. It will also be hard to hide a car project because of product testing needed outside of Apple premises.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles? [View article]
    Yes, IE has car prototype engines with power density numbers on their website, no need to search further:

    "The 100kW automotive fuel cell architecture provides vehicle manufacturers with a new high performance option for their Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles*

    "The 100kW platform takes full advantage of Intelligent Energy’s superior stack technology, which offers world leadership in power density of 3.5kW/l (volumetric) and 3.0kW/kg (gravimetric), whilst being engineered for low cost, high volume series production."


    http://bit.ly/1UbdWjU

    Again, the issue with hydrogen imho is the charging infrastructure, not the technology inside the car (although costs will have to come down further there as well; this should be solvable once economies of scale kick in, so far FECVs are built in very small volumes).

    An IE stack picture can be found in this article:

    " The key enabler for these high power densities is the company’s proprietary, evaporatively-cooled (EC) technology.

    Compared to conventional liquid-cooled fuel cell stacks, the EC design removes the need for individual cooling channels between each cell. This delivers an advantage in terms of stack mass and volume, and helps contribute to the stack power density which translates into in-vehicle packaging and weight advantages."

    ""As points of comparison, the US Department of Energy (DOE) 2020 technical targets for an automotive fuel cell stack are 2.5 kW/l and 2 kW/kg. Toyota says that its new fuel cell stack in the Mirai offers 3.1 kW/l (2.2 times higher than that of the previous Toyota FCHV-adv limited-lease model) and 2.0 kW/kg"

    http://bit.ly/1WQxTAG
    Aug 25, 2015. 01:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles? [View article]
    "Knowing also that Flying saucers work by..."

    Seriously, what happened before you wrote those last two paragraphs ;)?
    Aug 25, 2015. 12:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles? [View article]
    I would like to add that the car industry seems to be more indifferent towards hydrogen recently. Toyota looks like the only major remaining proponent with a determined, long-term FC strategy at the moment.

    Other companies with lots of prior experience and interest in FCEVs pushed back their car launches again and again (BMW; Daimler; Honda etc.) or only opted for a compliance launch (for example Hyundai in CA, they technically beat Toyota to market with a few cars for bragging points - http://bit.ly/1WQmtNv - but will soon launch EVs and PHEVs also).

    Smaller car companies often opted for JVs with Toyota to save R&D costs, but once again none of them seems to be really convinced of FCEVs either for the time being.

    The missing refill infrastructure remains a chicken-and-egg problem worldwide for many years to come - in the meantime, BEVs and PHEVs could grab a few percent of total car marketshare and gain some economies of scale.
    Aug 25, 2015. 12:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles? [View article]
    Yes, as I argued in an earlier article on Apple cars AAPL would most likely use contract manufacturing - as they already for PCs and CE devices.

    There are similar options (Foxconn since 2014, Magna, Valmet...) for cars as well. Apple wouldn't have to build internal capacity.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Apple Found The Holy Grail Of Electric Vehicles? [View article]
    The problem with hydrogen cars is missing charging/filling infrastructure. It remains to be seen if this can be solved (except for areas with heavy subsidies such as Japan).
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:45 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    Apple is once again hiring more car engineers:

    "A LinkedIn profile for Jamie Carlson shows that he has left Tesla and moved to Apple. At least six others with experience developing self-driving technology and systems have joined Apple, according to their LinkedIn profiles."

    http://yhoo.it/1PEmyyI
    Aug 21, 2015. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    And another source adding a few details: http://bit.ly/1J9MuRZ
    Aug 15, 2015. 07:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    More evidence that Apple is working on a car:

    "Apple is building a self-driving car in Silicon Valley, and is scouting for secure locations in the San Francisco Bay area to test it, the Guardian has learned. Documents show the oft-rumoured Apple car project appears to be further along than many suspected.

    In May [2015], engineers from Apple’s secretive Special Project group met with officials from GoMentum Station, a 2,100-acre former naval base near San Francisco that is being turned into a high-security testing ground for autonomous vehicles.

    In correspondence obtained by the Guardian under a public records act request, Apple engineer Frank Fearon wrote: “We would ... like to get an understanding of timing and availability for the space, and how we would need to coordinate around other parties who would be using [it].”

    http://bit.ly/1gJvRS1
    Aug 15, 2015. 07:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    Electric bicycles and EV buses both sell increasingly well and are under the radar attention-wise compared to passenger EVs for 2-4 people (BEV and PHEV passenger cars).

    But I don't think Apple is interested in either category (bicycles or buses). We will see.
    Aug 10, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Music's Start Looks Promising, But Don't Get Blindsided By Early Numbers [View article]
    PPS: Here are some comparison numbers with other services and iTunes Radio:

    http://for.tn/1EjJnRH

    So far, the 11m subs (of course all free, trial period...) are really nothing to brag about given Apple's distribution and the earlier, low-key iTunes Radio launch.

    As I also outlined above, this won't be a cash cow for Apple in any case (even with 25-50 m paying subs long-term).
    Aug 10, 2015. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    I think Apple would be especially interested in the carbon fiber and life/drive module part of the production process.

    A short video on the supply chain / production of carbon fiber for the BMW i-series:

    http://bit.ly/1TeIN3U

    In addition, I think the recent 43-acre land purchase in San Jose could be related to Apple R&D car (or at least another major new product initiative):

    http://bit.ly/1TeIUg0
    Aug 10, 2015. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Music's Start Looks Promising, But Don't Get Blindsided By Early Numbers [View article]
    Author wrote: "This amount is still significantly lower than iTunes annual revenue of approximately $12 billion. Investors should keep in mind that a shift from iTunes towards Apple Music will affect total digital downloads and iTunes' revenue."

    I think the overall impact is at best a wash, even with 20-50 million subscribers 2-5 years from now. There will be likely fewer iTunes downloads/sales as a result.

    Like Apple Pay, Apple Music is good and important for Apple's eco-system and stickiness, but won't add much to the bottom line even with these elevated numbers, especially since AAPL soon has over $200 bn in annual revenue.

    PS: I once ran the numbers for Apple Pay after a full global roll-out, say by 2020. Even giant transaction volumes of 4 trillion USD/year would "only" add around 6 billion USD to Apple's net income/year! (Details in an AAPL Instablog for those interested).
    Aug 6, 2015. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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