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  • Why Apple TV Is Fighting For Survival [View article]
    Exactly, TV is nothing more than a hobby for Apple. The renewed TV box will likely focus on more unique features (home hub, app store etc.).

    It doesn't make sense for Apple to outbid everyone else for content just to get exclusive offerings with low margins.

    We should also not forget that AAPL is a global company, the discussed TV deals are for NA only. The future for Apple growth lies in Asia.
    Mar 25, 2015. 06:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    Foxconn (currently Apple's main assembly partner) is moving forward with its electric car plans discussed in the article:

    "Foxconn partners with China's Tencent on smart electric cars"

    "...the electronics manufacturer struck a partnership with Chinese Internet giant Tencent and luxury car dealership China Harmony Auto to develop smart electric cars. All three companies are together establishing a special team for the project, Foxconn said."

    http://bit.ly/1HxWfWl
    Mar 24, 2015. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Has Implications For Big Data, IoT And Web 3.0 [View article]
    Binkwilder wrote: "How difficult is it to turn off my TV without an iWatch, or set the temperature or turn off lights"

    These were just simple examples. Think of more advanced ones: Force Touch could allow to easily navigate recorded TV content, the Watch could also act as a game controller for the new Apple TV box (a mix of MSFT Kinect and NTDOY Wii controllers) etc.

    Longer-term, the

    - Health (more sensors in future Watch versions)
    - Access/Control/Navigation (IoT with other smart devices around you)
    - Payment (Apple Pay more or less everywhere in a few years)

    options for the Apple Watch become very interesting in my opinion.

    We are just at the beginning in 2015. The Watch will probably take until 2020 (maybe 2-3 hardware generations) to show its full potential.

    And compared to the iPhone and the first app store (back in mid-2008), Apple has tons of experienced iOS developers ready with ideas and apps for the Watch right from day one this time around (the second boost will be full Watch apps coming later in 2015).

    PS: "Watch" is probably the wrong term. It's a connected wrist computer.
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:42 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Has Implications For Big Data, IoT And Web 3.0 [View article]
    The full potential of the Apple Watch within the AAPL ecosystem and other applications (IoT) described in the article will probably take a few years to unfold.

    One only has to take a look at iPhone version 1 (2007, no app store, no 3G...) compared to the current iPhone 6 family specs and capabilities.

    The Watch will likely have a similar evolution and have its two main "chains" removed over time:

    - Better Battery life
    - More sensors (especially Health) and more iPhone independence (GPS...)

    But even short-term the watch has a lot of hidden potential, especially coupled with the rumored new Apple TV box coming later this year (control your home hub such as lighting, doors, maybe even act as a game controller etc.).
    Mar 24, 2015. 11:52 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    The AppleInsider blog unveiled new hints that Apple could be working on new products and services for the transportation sector:

    "That revelation led AppleInsider to revisit those claims from last fall to find out more about the supposed Apple electric car, said to be under development at a top-secret building known by the internal codename "SG5."

    The results of this extensive investigation led to Sunnyvale, Calif., and the home of a mysterious market research firm dubbed SixtyEight. Nestled amongst a number of verifiable Apple-run offices, it is believed that this location is a key component of the "Titan" project."

    (...)

    Is SixtyEight a real company, or is it a way for Apple to maintain secrecy on a project hiding in plain sight?

    (...)

    According to one AppleInsider source familiar with "Titan," many of Apple's new auto-related hires, including recruits from Tesla, have been working out of the Sunnyvale campus. This person claims that some of the projects underway there have been kept "very secret" within the company.

    It is said that the "Titan" development building itself is codenamed "SG5."

    (...)

    "Apple has taken residence in the building with the largest footprint, which is outfitted with a battery room, reliability lab, water ingress lab, 2,000 gallon tank, conference room, break room, computer labs, and test chambers. Outside are bicycle parking facilities, while two large loading areas flank a row of overhead doors installed to the rear of the building."

    Source: http://bit.ly/1x1Vbdr
    Mar 23, 2015. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Uniquely Well Positioned For The Future Of TV [View article]
    Jus in: News on Apple TV from sources with a good track record:

    The new Apple TV may be announced in summer 2015 already:

    "Apple to reveal new Apple TV with App Store, Siri & A8 CPU at WWDC in June - report"

    http://bit.ly/1GH6Q17

    Maybe it will only ship later, towards the end of the year (if it includes an app store in order for developers to prepare apps tailored for the TV screen and new input / motion control devices).
    Mar 22, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Uniquely Well Positioned For The Future Of TV [View article]
    It certainly makes the ecosystem more "sticky", agreed. But Apple with its vast resources has yet to prove that it really wants to move AppleTV beyond the "hobby" status. We will see when and how the outdated AppleTV is finally refreshed (I'm still long AAPL with a smaller position).
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At Pre-Bust Valuation, Is Apple Getting Ahead Of Itself? [View article]
    Author wrote: "It seems Apple has turned 180 degrees on its product refresh cycle and has come out with three new iPhone versions (5C, 5S and 6) in just two years since September 2014, along with multiple version upgrades. The iPhone 7 is expected in September of this year, along with new versions of the iPhone 6. The ramped up refresh cycle, "

    Hmm, no. There is no faster upgrade cycle. Apple refreshes the iPhone line-up once a year, the "new" 5C was just the old iPhone 5 in a plastic enclosure.

    Also, the upcoming 2015 Apple iPhone will most likely be a 6S or similar variant in the same 6 and 6Plus casing/form factor, the iPhone 7 will only arrive in 2016 if Apple sticks to their plans and cycles from the past years.

    Author also wrote: "New product releases failed to live up to the hype and investors seem to be putting their faith in record iPhone sales for every product cycle"

    Which product releases does this refer to?

    Except for the usual refreshes, Apple only released the Apple Watch as a new category in recent years, it is not yet on the market (therefore we don't know its success).
    There may be more launches coming later this year (in particular, a larger iPad Pro and a new AppleTV).
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:41 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Uniquely Well Positioned For The Future Of TV [View article]
    Yes, it would be huge for most other companies, but not for Apple. My rough $200 billion number is even too low given Apple's latest holiday quarter and the outlook for the current quarter (current revenue estimates at around $50-55 billion: http://bit.ly/1GYTtsS ).

    In this context, $4-5 billion in additional annual revenue is a little more than a rounding error.

    I guess we have to await an updated AppleTV (more details in my other comments) before this category can really move the needle for Apple.
    Mar 18, 2015. 04:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Uniquely Well Positioned For The Future Of TV [View article]
    Failure? How so? Beats hardware makes money, revenue is up once more since Apple more prominently featured the hardware in their retail stores.

    Here are the numbers for 2013, Beats continued to grow in 2014:

    "The company’s annual sales revenue has also been estimated at $1.5 billion."

    http://nyti.ms/1xffQL6

    Margins are very good given their high-end pricing strategy. $3 billion was a very reasonable price given the Beats revenue base. As for software, the unified Beats-Apple streaming service will only be unveiled later in 2015, it's not public yet.
    Mar 18, 2015. 02:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Uniquely Well Positioned For The Future Of TV [View article]
    The current AppleTV box is really outdated (about 3 years old), the only news over the past years have been a few channel additions and most recently a price drop to $69.

    The hardware and content selection is in dire need of a major update, hopefully by late 2015 (for example: Ability to use Siri to search, a unified search engine for all content offerings, app store with third-party apps and games, home control capabilities - there are many areas where AppleTV needs to be improved to get more competitive with similar offerings such as Fire TV and Echo from AMZN).

    PS: I expect Apple to bundle a rival to FireTV and Echo into one box, for those who don't know about AMZN Echo yet: http://amzn.to/1prcJvM
    Mar 18, 2015. 01:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Uniquely Well Positioned For The Future Of TV [View article]
    sunseeker14 wrote: "entertainment is the future. just imagine how many hours people spend watching television on a daily basis! "

    Yes, but where are the interesting margins in this space? The content owners hold the winning cards, it's a bidding war for interesting or exclusive live (especially sports) and canned (blockbuster films) content.

    Apple historically had margins well above its competitors in both the consumer electronics and entertainment space. Why would Apple want to outspend Netflix, Amazon or similar players just for the sake of it?

    (Let's also remember NFLX and AMZN both had to start producing their own content to achieve more bargaining power with rights owners and keep their licensing costs under control. Long-term AAPL would have to become a movie studio in this scenario, I doubt they are interested in doing that...).

    I think the more interesting future for the AppleTV box lies in third-party apps (especially casual gaming with an army of experienced iOS developers) and home control (Home Kit is just in the early stages as of 2015) as the author pointed out in the article.
    Mar 18, 2015. 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Uniquely Well Positioned For The Future Of TV [View article]
    Author wrote: "So Next Gen Apple TV could be worth an extra $1 billion per quarter in revenue". That's the 'problem' (of course an issue 99% of other companies would love to have) when Apple is doing about $200 billion in total annual revenue or even above going forward. Large numbers are an issue. A renewed AppleTV may be a nice puzzle piece to the ecosystem, but the direct financial impact is very small. PS: That's why I think Apple will move into personal transportation/cars one day, it's one of the few trillion-sized consumer markets left for Apple to enter.
    Mar 18, 2015. 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Apple: Embracing Personalized Technology With A Luxury Twist [View article]
    The iPhone 5 and the 5C are also compatible with the Apple Watch (not just the 5S), so the total addressable market for the Watch is quite large.

    PS: My comment above should say "Because of..." instead of "However..."
    Mar 13, 2015. 05:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Apple: Embracing Personalized Technology With A Luxury Twist [View article]
    I unfortunately think that attach rate is too high. But given the number of active iPhones in use, even a much lower rate (say 1 in 20, 5%) is still a nice business:

    Assuming an attach rate of just 5% and around 400-500 million compatible iPhones (iPhone 5 and higher) by 2016 and beyond (Apple sells more phones thanks to the iPhone 6 family lately), we are still talking about millions of units, 20-25 million Watches/year.

    Why "only" 5%? However (as with the iPad) a slower renewal cycle compared to iPhones with subsidies I think 5% is a reasonable number.

    I even think 5% is optimistic looking at most analyst estimates.

    PS: Longer-term (especially with better battery life), the numbers may rise.
    Mar 13, 2015. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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