Seeking Alpha

Tao Jaxx

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Tao Jaxx's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    Funny funny.
    I have a full collection of these: Jim Sinclair $12,000, Jim Rodgers, Marc Faber etc...
    Check this one out:
    Paulson with double digit inflation and gold at $4,000... in 2012.
    That was September 2010.

    http://bit.ly/AsAelB
    Apr 17 03:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bursting Gold 'Fear Bubble' Vs. The 'Confidence Bubble' In Policy Makers, Economists, And Markets [View article]
    Thanks for taking the time to respond.
    I don't want to belabor this discussion but this "printing" has no impact on real or nominal demand as it sits idle on the liability side of the Fed balance sheet, sterilized by the unwillingness of (or lack of opportunity for) bankers to lend it to the real economy.
    The day this "printing" is used and threatens price stability, the Fed can sterilize it right away by nudging up the interest it pays on reserves.
    The sooner it does this, the smaller the rate increase. Even 25bp will be enough as a first step. And they have 20 such increases in their back pocket to get rates at their "natural level", 5% (3% potential growth and 2% inflation).
    Simple as that, but curiously misunderstood by many, first among them the Goldista crowd.
    Apr 17 03:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The True All-In Cost To Mine Gold: Complete 2012 Figures [View article]
    This looks like a worthwhile exercise but it does not withstand a modicum of scrutiny, as evidenced by the divergence between the result and professionally accepted costs evaluation.

    What is computed here is not the cost of extracting an ounce: Rather, it is simply the total costs incurred by the company in a given year divided by the number of ounces the company happened to produce that year.
    The biggest flaw of the methodology is that it allocates all development costs (which should lead to more production later) to the ounces produced in the current year. Classic double accounting.
    This obviously inflates the outcome, but then again if one wants to peddle the bullish case for GLD and the bearish case for the miners....
    Apr 17 01:35 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bursting Gold 'Fear Bubble' Vs. The 'Confidence Bubble' In Policy Makers, Economists, And Markets [View article]
    Dear author,
    I enjoy reading your articles even though I strongly disagree with most of what you say (I am on the other side of your trade...)
    So for once I am happy to have a common view and agree when you say "Failing to include large parts of the banking system and ignoring rapid credit expansion in these models was a major reason for not seeing the last financial crisis coming".
    The problem is that the Goldistas fall victim of the same illusion as they focus on the leveraging of the public sector (the 16.7Tn of their constant mantra) and totally blind to the correspondingly massive private sector deleveraging, hence these ridiculous hyperinflation forecasts.
    They "fail to include large parts of the banking system and ignore rapid credit contraction in their models, a major reason for not seeing the gold correction coming"
    Apr 17 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    I never have answers, Sir.
    I'm trying to have the right questions. Helped me survive markets.
    Apr 16 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    JasonC,

    Kudos and well exposed. This is the basis of my 18 month short position on Gold.
    Gold shills missed that because they're under the influence of mainstream economics which never experienced de-leveraging of this magnitude. I keep pointing at the crash of money velocity to stress that garden variety monetarist analysis is inappropriate in today's situation:
    http://bit.ly/Tpwkfb,
    but they are immunized against any such approach. That's where confirmation bias blows at gale force: a lot of the gold shills make investment decisions on the basis of their emotions or their political leanings. They buy gold because that comforts them in their thinking.
    As a veteran FX trader, I have learned quickly and at great cost that I should leave my political beliefs as well as all emotions out of the picture when making investment or trading decisions.
    Their turn to learn. Most will not, but that's how market darwinism works: you don't learn, Mr.Market strips you of your capital and you can't play anymore.
    Apr 16 05:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    You kidding, right?
    On the other side of the gold trade I can see John Paulson with 21.8 million GLD shares (that's 21.8 MILLIONS -see the SEC form 13F from February) and David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital) with millions of mining shares.
    Mom and Pop have no business on the gold market and its Wild West volatility: we have a fully fledged capital market (unlike India or China, where people have no choice other than cash, gold or real-estate). Open an account at Vanguard, buy a mix of index funds with your age in bonds and the rest in stocks and have a life, that's what makes sense for Mom and Pop.
    Never heard this crybaby whining about rigged markets when that thing was appreciating double digits year after year, by the way.
    Apr 16 07:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    So?
    Slow growth ahead, even deflation?
    Then cash is king, gold is to be priced near its marginal cost of production: $900 or thereabout.
    Probably lower as Mr.Market likely undershoots, just like he overshoots on the way up.
    Apr 16 03:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short France? [View article]
    Great comment. I'm a Sciences Po Frenchman, just got my Green Card. My son is a Stanford graduate (PhD Electric Engineering). Green card too.
    That short France trade ain't gonna work though. Politics trump everything, and short France means short Germany-France. Looks good on paper, goes nowhere in real life: Ask the Zero Hedge nutters: lost their shirts on emotional trades.
    Apr 16 02:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    You got that right, no kidding.
    Apr 16 02:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    Hey CorvetteKid,

    Smart thinking,
    Mine's an '06 Monterey Red LS2 Vert.
    Here's what goldbugs don't understand:

    http://bit.ly/yfiMV9
    Apr 16 01:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Fear Bubble Bursts [View article]
    Felix,
    Congrats for clear thinking and big picture reasoning. I can't believe some of the comments and their downright antisemitic overtone. Keep up the good work!
    Apr 16 12:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    http://bit.ly/wLhkO3

    You should know this stuff, shouldn't you?
    8120 comments touting the virtues of gold investing and no clue about the cost of production? All of those comments based on emotional investing?
    lol
    Chickens coming home to roost...
    Apr 15 11:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    James,

    We have been on opposing sides in other debates (Euro-zone crisis) but on this one, I wholeheartedly second your opinion.
    Well said.
    Apr 15 10:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    Funny article, same old song: when gold prices soar, it's the free market functioning; when gold prices crash, it's the evil banksters. Childish denial of responsibility for ill-fated investment decisions.
    As a non-producing asset, gold derives its value from whatever the next guy wants to pay for it. As such, it is the ultimate Ponzi scheme.
    I've been short gold futures for 18 months now and plan to remain so. Surprised that the air would leak out this fast from the bubble, though.
    My (humble) opinion is that this thing should stabilize in the upper 3 digits, close to the marginal cost of production, so roughly $800 to $900.
    It may take time to get there, and I don't know when it will get there, but it will.
    Apr 15 09:28 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,274 Comments
1,546 Likes