Tate Dwinnell

First Solar's Reversal After Earnings Is Hard to Understand

Here's a good article on polysilicon pricing which has plummeted:
blogs.wsj.com/environm.../

If in fact this economy has bottomed out, which many believe it has, can it be safely assumed that silicon prices have as well? If so, then so has FSLR's cost advantage. With the price of other commodities as our guide (with the exception of nat gas) that may very well be the case.

First Solar's Reversal After Earnings Is Hard to Understand

There are quite a few "i told you so's" out there on FSLR as if to say they knew the stock would reverse $40 bucks following what was a very impressive quarter (which seems to have been thrown out the door). Granted, it's all about the future with stock pricing and the Germany uncertainty has given traders the jitters. What seems to be missing in ALL the analysis I have seen so far is the possibility that maybe, just maybe.. silicon prices prices recover quickly and the cost advantage is restored. Perhaps it's the same people who think that oil won't ever get over $100 again.

First Solar's Reversal After Earnings Is Hard to Understand

Good comment Jigar.. you're right on about the fundamental picture. It's the million dollar question. I still think the reversal was a bit of an overreaction, but of course the market doesn't care what I think. The action on Monday will be telling.. can it stem the bleeding?

First Solar's Reversal After Earnings Is Hard to Understand

Thanks for the lesson, but I see it differently.. guess that's what makes a market eh? Perhaps you and I are looking at different time frames or charts for that matter. The double bottom breakout of 4/30 remains intact.. not too concerned unless it takes out the 140 level.

Follow the Mutual Funds: Solar Is Bottoming

First Solar might be the best fundamentally and technically in the space.. STP looks mighty sick still on a technical basis and looks like it will at least test the lows again. I'm long FSLR