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Taylor Kiviat

 
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  • Vapor Corp.: An Interesting Speculation On E-Cigs [View article]
    there's 5 different brands (smoke 51, krave, green puffer, vaporx, ez smoker) that all seem to cannibalize each other.

    Njoy has the King and only the King, but with different flavor profiles. Blu is the same way. All this brand differentiation at VPCO does is confuse customers and increase expenses. I'd be happier if they ditched the other brands and only focused on Krave.
    Nov 7 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vapor Corp.: An Interesting Speculation On E-Cigs [View article]
    i spent a lot of time looking into this company and in the end was a bit concerned with the product lineup (they are all over the place) and management team (no tobacco experience). they're only a buyout candidate if they're taking market share, and $6.4 million in sales across multiple product lines is nothing for the big boys to be scared of.
    Nov 7 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Storm Brewing At Teva? [View article]
    Ah, perhaps floundering was the better word. Blundering? Stumbling? Please send me your address and I will be happy to issue you a refund.
    Nov 2 12:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Analyst Day Sheds Light On The Brand [View article]
    for the sake of argument - churn is normal for any business. look at girl scout cookies. tens of thousands of people churn in the girl scout cookie network every year and don't make that much money for their troops. does that mean they should be shut down? sued?

    no. rather, they spent 50 or 100 bucks on something, tried it, maybe ate a few cookies themselves, and moved on with their lives. in a year or so maybe they'll want more cookies.

    another scenario: if the stock gets cheap enough look for them to be taken private.
    Jan 11 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Analyst Day Sheds Light On The Brand [View article]
    good points. from what I read I don't think the distributors get sale credit for the initial startup kit, and they can return it for up to 12 months without a restocking fee (less s&h).

    let's say they don't meet the FTC pyramid scheme criteria but have to restate a portion of sales (after a 1+ year legal battle) and maybe pay a fine. assuming the multiple gets cut in half you're still looking at a $30 stock. I think Loeb saw a huge margin of safety when he bought it in the mid 20s but I wouldn't want to own it in the 40s or 50s.
    Jan 11 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Analyst Day Sheds Light On The Brand [View article]
    I read the shortzilla piece and don't like it. Few points:

    1) When the title of your company starts with short you're clearly biased before you do any work

    2) They are giving away this "research" as a PR move

    3) It's clear their analysts have never taken a basic statistics course. They are knocking the fact that Lieberman only sampled 1200 people? That's all you need for sampling. Look at election polls. They only poll ~1,000 people since after that, statistically speaking, the rest is noise.

    4) The about us section doesn't give the name of a single employee

    I'd like to see them open their books and submit to another survey done by Ackman's choosing, but doubt that will happen. Until then, it's up to the FTC.
    Jan 11 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Analyst Day Sheds Light On The Brand [View article]
    The "fees" are still going towards a tangible product so in the FTC's eyes it's fine.
    Jan 11 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Analyst Day Sheds Light On The Brand [View article]
    Here's the thing - I'm not saying Ackman is wrong.

    My point is that he could be right, but this whole thing hinges on the FTC. I certainly wouldn't want to make a trade that relies on a government regulatory body doing their job swiftly and effectively.

    HLF will continue to obfuscate, there will be legal battles that will be drawn out for years. Look at previous short battles that were much clearer than this (Arthrocare, Allied). They take FOREVER to play out.
    Jan 11 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Recession Is Over: Time To Back Up The Truck [View article]
    agree in the short term. disagree in the medium term (3-5years) once the bond market wakes up and starts revolting
    Jan 2 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Magic Needed: Disney Is Still Cheap [View article]
    Thanks! ESPN's importance has been discussed in nearly every other Disney pitch so I didn't want to repeat anything, other than my thought that ad revenue won't get hit at ESPN nearly as bad as ABC so Disney is a bit more insulated than someone like Viacom who doesn't have as much sports exposure.
    Dec 28 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Magic Needed: Disney Is Still Cheap [View article]
    Yes, that's the Gary Brode piece I quote. I think that the decrease in TV advertising revenue will be a slow, long term process which is also reflected in the low average industry multiple (6.25). The media networks division still produces lots of cash flow and in the short term (12-18 months) should not be too large of a concern. 5+ years from now, definitely, but I like the way management has begun to address it by forging these new strategic partnerships.
    Dec 28 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside In Activision Blizzard [View article]
    historical was 15% in 2010 and 18.5% in 2011.

    i projected 18.5% in 2012, 20.5% in 2013 and 22.5% thereafter assuming tax rates get raised slightly.
    Apr 10 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside In Activision Blizzard [View article]
    some good points, but i think you are looking at the wrong metrics. the most important thing i look for is cash flow, which is what drew me to the stock in the first place. this company has an absolutely unbelievable balance sheet and just gushes FCF. i haven't read any of the analyst reports but i'm sure they all came to the same conclusion as I did after running the models and looking at the statements. as a fundamental investor, this stock is beautiful. the div yield just makes things sweeter.

    i think the expansion set release on WoW should keep subs above 10 million and that's what I baked into my forecast. you're right: if those dip to 8 the stock could be vulnerable, but long term i believe new international growth will sustain it and there are still upside surprises once ATVI figures out how to get the asian markets to pay for the games instead of stealing them. (check the revenue by region graph. 7% is really awful. they are working on it)

    i also know that the story has been the same and this thing hasn't moved since 2009. if i bought it then, i'd be pissed too (the guitar hero writedowns didn't help). but the bungee and marvel partnerships, vivendi pushing them, more aggressive release schedules, international growth, a div yield, an excellent financial position, and new consoles on the horizon makes this a buy and hold.
    Mar 15 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside In Activision Blizzard [View article]
    i wouldn't touch zynga with a ten foot pole. i have no idea how they monetize anything and especially with software development costs being capitalized and staggered revenue recognition there is definitely room to fudge numbers early on in the IPO.
    Mar 14 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside In Activision Blizzard [View article]
    the good news is that they are becoming more shareholder friendly (buybacks, div) and Vivendi has a keen interest in share price growth thanks to their major company stake. 2012 will be a huge year with releases occurring across all blizzard franchises for the first time ever. in the meantime, enjoy the dividend and limited downside.
    Mar 14 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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