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Taylor Kiviat

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  • 50% Upside In Activision Blizzard [View article]
    historical was 15% in 2010 and 18.5% in 2011.

    i projected 18.5% in 2012, 20.5% in 2013 and 22.5% thereafter assuming tax rates get raised slightly.
    Apr 10, 2012. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside In Activision Blizzard [View article]
    some good points, but i think you are looking at the wrong metrics. the most important thing i look for is cash flow, which is what drew me to the stock in the first place. this company has an absolutely unbelievable balance sheet and just gushes FCF. i haven't read any of the analyst reports but i'm sure they all came to the same conclusion as I did after running the models and looking at the statements. as a fundamental investor, this stock is beautiful. the div yield just makes things sweeter.

    i think the expansion set release on WoW should keep subs above 10 million and that's what I baked into my forecast. you're right: if those dip to 8 the stock could be vulnerable, but long term i believe new international growth will sustain it and there are still upside surprises once ATVI figures out how to get the asian markets to pay for the games instead of stealing them. (check the revenue by region graph. 7% is really awful. they are working on it)

    i also know that the story has been the same and this thing hasn't moved since 2009. if i bought it then, i'd be pissed too (the guitar hero writedowns didn't help). but the bungee and marvel partnerships, vivendi pushing them, more aggressive release schedules, international growth, a div yield, an excellent financial position, and new consoles on the horizon makes this a buy and hold.
    Mar 15, 2012. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside In Activision Blizzard [View article]
    i wouldn't touch zynga with a ten foot pole. i have no idea how they monetize anything and especially with software development costs being capitalized and staggered revenue recognition there is definitely room to fudge numbers early on in the IPO.
    Mar 14, 2012. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside In Activision Blizzard [View article]
    the good news is that they are becoming more shareholder friendly (buybacks, div) and Vivendi has a keen interest in share price growth thanks to their major company stake. 2012 will be a huge year with releases occurring across all blizzard franchises for the first time ever. in the meantime, enjoy the dividend and limited downside.
    Mar 14, 2012. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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