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  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    How about the Jaguar XF?
    Aug 20 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    A large majority of those who know what Tesla Motors is and have researched enough about them to like their pages are mostly people who really love the company and are all awaiting a cheaper model. When that day comes, a large percentage of these people will go out and buy their cars. I bet you a very large percentage of those who like Ford on Facebook own or have a close person who owns a Ford.
    Aug 20 09:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    Miro, I guess the Aston Martin DB9 also looks like the Ford Fusion or a Kia??

    @potpie
    I know a lot of people who will be buying the Model 3. There is also thousands on the tesla motors club forum. Lets not forget 11,000 followers of the subreddit /r/teslamotors, as well as the 500k likes on Facebook, and the 300k followers on Twitter. With the Gigafactory and the Model 3 this company will be even more viral than today. You really are clueless.
    Aug 20 08:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    Miro, I guess the Aston Martin DB9 also looks like the Ford Fusion or a Kia?
    Aug 20 08:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    fiwiki2, Elon Musk already explained how the Gigafactory will be funded:

    "We see Tesla probably providing 40% to 50% of the total [cost], Panasonic probably about 30% to 40%, the states maybe 10%, and other industrial partners about 10%, maybe 15% to 20%, depending on how vertical [ph] we go with the factory."

    Tesla= $1.6B-$2.5B
    Panasonic= $1.2B-$2B
    States= $400M-$500M
    Industrial Partners= $400M-$1B

    What is there to not understand?
    Aug 20 08:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Shorting this stock is 3 times as risky as owning it.
    Aug 19 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla extends warranty on Model S sedan to eight years [View news story]
    I see a pattern. People were not sure about the resale value of the Model S, so Tesla introduces the Resale Value Guarantee. Now people are not sure about drivetrain replacements, so Tesla extended the warranty to unlimited miles over 8 years to ensure confidence. Tesla takes care of its customers.
    Aug 15 05:30 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    Fact check. Ford has $11.5 billion in cash as of the quarter that ended on 6/30. Tesla has already moved ground in at least one location and will be full steam building the factory by the end of the year. The real advantage that Tesla has is that they already started building their Gigafactory, and they are not afraid to spend their money. Companies like Ford are definitely afraid to spend money on a market they are not sure exists. So every minute that Ford and others sit back and continue to not invest in a Gigafactory, Tesla's moat is expanding. It's wishful thinking to think that throwing money at a problem can fix it.
    Aug 15 04:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    The Honda Accord costs $21,955, while the Honda Accord hybrid costs $29,155 with less options. Essentially, this is buying the same car that costs $8 thousand more. This is the hybrid business model, and they are all just compliance cars that price gouge customers. Also, hybrids don't really have any of the advantages that full EVs do.
    Aug 15 01:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    This is a good point. However, the battery packs in FCVs are much smaller than the battery packs of EVs because they do not need to store as much energy. They are a few kWh at most, which is tiny compared to Tesla's average of 70 kWh (35 GWh/500,000 vehicles). At 10 kWh per FCV, it would require 5 GWh of battery packs in order to support production of 500,000 vehicles.
    Aug 15 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    It turns out that LT was right. I submitted edits to my article to fix the mistake. According to page 19 of the report (http://bit.ly/1qcLq2e) released by LG Chem, it ended 2013 with 1,399,054,000,000 won in cash and cash equivalents, which is roughly rounded up to $1.4 Billion dollars, still no threat to Tesla's $2.7 Billion. Also, you must take into account that LG Chem is a large established battery player that has risk averse tendencies due to their business culture, and will not deploy such large amounts of cash in such a short period of time.

    The original mistake was due to yahoo finance.
    Aug 15 12:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Is Share Price Really 3 Times Enterprise Value? [View article]
    Your analysis should go something like this: 100k Model S/X at $110k ASP, and 400k Model 3 at $42,500 ASP, which would result in 29 Billion in revenue from cars (assuming no revenue from developmental services, battery sales, etc). Then take a gross margin of 25% (probably will not stay at 30% because Model 3 will likely be a lower margin) to get 7.25 billion and then assume your 15% SG&A/R&D, which gives us an EBITDA of 2.9 Billion. This is probably very low since Elon Musk plans for operating profit margins in the "mid-teens". So lets adjust to that, at 15% operating margins, Tesla will make 4.35 billion in EBITDA. Take a 15 EBITDA due to aggressive growth history and aggressive growth plans for the future to get a market cap of $65 Billion and discount it by 15% over 5 years to get a market cap of $32.4 Billion.
    Aug 9 11:30 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Is Share Price Really 3 Times Enterprise Value? [View article]
    The executive compensation plan is a bit outdated. That being said, the highest number on that compensation plan is passing 300,000 vehicle production. It is well known that Tesla's Fremont capacity is 500,000 cars per year and this presentation on the gigafactory shows their intent to produce 500,000 cars per year by 2020: http://bit.ly/1gCWEcD

    Next, the average selling price of the Model S is currently consistently above $100k, and the Model X will cost slightly more, so it is fair to assume an ASP of $110k for the two cars. Tesla said in their most recent quarterly report that they plan to reach 100k cars per year annualized rate by the end of 2015, which means that they aim to sell at least 100k Model S and Model X in 2016 (@ $110k ASP). The Model 3 will come out in 2017 and should take Tesla's production up to 500k vehicles per year by 2020.
    Aug 9 08:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Is Share Price Really 3 Times Enterprise Value? [View article]
    I maintain my thesis that Tesla is undervalued. This article shows a lack of research on Tesla's goals and has bad data. I write here why Tesla is actually undervalued: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 8 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors roundup: Hong Kong deliveries, Baird confident on 2H [View news story]
    There is no free cash flow because Tesla is investing in their next generation of vehicles. For example, Tesla knows that they will have a certain amount of free cash flow in a quarter, so they spend that amount of money to ensure that they keep investing in the next generation. Musk's instructions to Tesla China is to spend as much money as possible without wasting it.
    Jul 29 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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