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  • For Solazyme, It Is All About Control [View article]
    "Perfectly good sugar" vs perfectly good (and more nutritious) edible oils, perfectly good (and safe to handle) dielectric fluids and perfectly good (and less toxic) surfactants and lubricants.

    Hmmm.....I'll take the latter. And so would Omar Bradley.

    "Perfectly good sugar". Lol.
    Dec 23 11:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Look At Solazyme's New Oil Profile [View article]
    They have implicitly stated that their cost to produce certain finished oils (e.g. erucic or high lipid algal powder) will be will in excess of $2000 - $3,000 per metric ton. The ASPs for such products will be $3000 to $5,000.

    How so? If they CLEARLY say that the gross margin for a food product is expected to be 50%, and they also CLEARLY say that the product will sell for an expected $4,000 per/mt, then obviously the cost to product the oil will be in excess of $2,500.

    Dec 3 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Look At Solazyme's New Oil Profile [View article]
    Your friend is strangely misguided. The risk isn't whether Moema or Clinton exist and are scaling up. Unless you want to accuse ADM and Bunge of illegalities, then the plants are indeed firing up as we speak and oil has been made for years at other plants for several years. The issue is whether they will achieve the costs and ASPs that they expect. Visiting the plants a million times won't lend insight into that unknown.

    As for it being a leap of faith, the financial term for that is "risk", i.e. the risk that things won't go as expected with production. Yes, there is risk to this investment. It's not a question of "faith".
    Dec 3 09:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Look At Solazyme's New Oil Profile [View article]
    Actually, no. The company has the cash right now to get through 2015. If they are not cash flow positive by then, it means something negative happened production-wise or marketplace-wise. In which case all bets are off anyway and it tanks. So while they may or may not succeed for whatever reason, dilution is not something on the horizon.

    They will win or lose long before cash becomes an issue.
    Dec 3 09:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KiOR Wins A Stay Of Execution But RFS2 Uncertainty Will Still Hurt [View article]
    "then management's guidance would result in roughly 500,000 to 1.5 million gallons of production in Q4, or up to 3x of the production achieved in the first three quarters together."

    Kior has been very evasive about the nature of its problems. Early in the year, the CEO, in his well rehearsed southern drawl, kept reiterating the phrase: "We're making a buhyootahful aaawl." They insisted that the production problems were all "mechanical" and not related to the "technology". He even gave examples like valves, fittings, pipes, etc.

    Well, when you set yourself up like that, you create in the market the expectation that these are things that can be quickly addressed. I mean, how many bolts and valves and other "purely mechanical" (their words) can there be to tweak?

    The simple fact is that Kior always touted how they didn't need to bother with messy bioorganisms, but they glossed over the fact that they had no real experience at that production size. It was unknown. And I think Mr. "Buhyootahful Awwwl" really did the company a disservice by trying to clever about the early setbacks.
    There is no evidence that the process works as intended at scale. That management won't even entertain that discussion has caused them to lose all credibility.

    Gevo and Amyris also had no significant experience at scale in real world conditions before setting out. In fact, only Solazyme actually showed linear scale production metrics in true commercial size facilities before actually opening its first major plant.

    I hope Kior does figure it out. I genuinely do. But they come across as people who moved forward quickly, kept their fingers crossed and hoped for the best --- unwilling to address the huge unknowns involved. They are still in that mode.
    Oct 27 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Takes One Step Back Before Running Forward [View article]
    Then why did Brazil loan 100+ million towards it? would you have us believe they did it for scientific knowledge? Charity? PR? Don't think so.
    Aug 8 09:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Wants To Fill Your Stomach, Not Your Gas Tank [View article]
    the company typically discusses unit sales in terms of price per metric ton, with most of their target oils selling in the $2,000 - $4,000/mt range. Though there are some above and below that range. in addition, net profits will be slim for a while as build-out and ramp-up expenses are steadily incurred.
    Jun 9 09:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Addresses The Limitations Of Oil Production - An Interview With Solazyme's Director (Part 2) [View article]
    I wonder how Mitsui fits in to Ivandertag's "peanut oil" theory. I suppose he'll tell us that Mitsui is so far away that they never actually tested the oil to see if it was real. : )
    Feb 10 10:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Addresses The Limitations Of Oil Production - An Interview With Solazyme's Director (Part 2) [View article]
    There is no 4Q "performance". The only things of any real consequence happening are construction projects, product research and partnerships. And I doubt a minor delay in construction would be a disaster.

    Could Algenist disappoint? It will only disappoint those who think it is a material reason to own the stock ---- which it isn't.
    Feb 10 10:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Ready To Eat Algae? Solazyme Knows You Are [View article]
    BlackNGold wrote today on MF: "I was originally mesmerized by Amyris' potential, but as bad news began to trickle out on all fronts – management shakeups, partnership worries, falling revenue – I quickly jumped ship." Management? Revenue? That's sort of like saying the Civil War was horrible because of mud, bad songs and ugly uniforms. Amyris sank because it's scale up hit a wall -- period. It's as if BlackNGold wants everyone to erase from their memory the fact that AMRS announced a scale-up fiasco, which BlackNGold subsequently dismissed as a "hiccup". He had the info in front of him.
    Jan 29 02:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Ready To Eat Algae? Solazyme Knows You Are [View article]
    p.s. will people really be "eating algae"? my impression is that the organic cell material is separated from the oil and used elsewhere. now, I couldn't care less either way. but i'm just thinking that when people eat goat cheese, they aren't really "eating goat". (BTW, it's a shame that SZYM is as focused and busy as they are. As a former litigation attorney myself, I can tell you that they could EASILY obtain Ivandertag's identity and sue him successfully for libel. it's been done to Yahoo! posters before.)
    Jan 28 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Ready To Eat Algae? Solazyme Knows You Are [View article]
    Just FYI, I think the inclusion of Sears was a mistake in the transcript of that hearing. The name of the head of the panel meeting that day was "Mr. Sears".

    I suspect they were simply addressing him at the time and the word got tacked onto the list of companies. It's the only thing that makes sense really.
    Jan 27 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short-Term Traders Sell As Solazyme Secures Its Future Growth [View article]
    You prompted your readers to take note of the ease with which Amyris raised money. But you yell "spin" when Kevin takes a similar perspective. Hypocrite much?
    Jan 18 02:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short-Term Traders Sell As Solazyme Secures Its Future Growth [View article]
    I agree Moyam. It seems like a clumsy move on the surface. Historically they have been very clever at Solazyme. Very curious.
    Jan 18 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme's Recent Scaling Accomplishment Is Bigger Than You Think [View article]
    Yes, his ability to recognize that this is a big milestone for Solazyme, but not the end of the road is inspired.
    Dec 18 02:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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