Seeking Alpha

Ted Barac

View as an RSS Feed
View Ted Barac's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • This Time It Is Different - Americans Are More Pessimistic [View article]
    Excellent article, James. Thanks.
    Mar 7 04:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway's Performance Vs. The S&P Is An Artifact [View article]
    All insurance companies have a considerable float, which is core to their underlying business model. That said, not all insurance companies (or investors in insurance companies) outperform. These are highly competitive businesses that depend on a certain level of return from their float -- in addition to needing to price their premiums optimally to win business (but not so low as to not sufficiently cover their expenses and the underlying risks that they underwrite). Some get it right and profit nicely, while some do poorly.

    It's not as simple as insurance company = big float = huge profits = outperformance. If it were, everyone would be in the insurance business generating excess returns. Let's give Buffett a little more credit than to say that he outperforms because there's an insurance float in some of his businesses.
    Mar 5 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway's Performance Vs. The S&P Is An Artifact [View article]
    The S&P comparison that Berkshire uses is for the total return of the S&P 500 (capital appreciation plus dividends) and the total return for each year (again, including dividends)is then compounded. As a result, the calculation/comparison does incorporate the S&P 500's dividends and the effective reinvestment of those dividends.
    Mar 5 09:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's Guidance: Where's The Skepticism? [View article]
    Fair points, Dante. The article was not meant to address the post-earnings price move or valuation of the shares (which is beyond the scope of the article). I agree that the post-earnings move was mainly relief that there was no disaster. Some (and not necessarily the market collectively), however, seem to have read things much more positively.
    Mar 3 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Leverage Is Pointless [View article]
    I don't think that the examples show that leverage is meaningless (as it clearly isn't meaningless). Rather, they simply illustrate that there are also other risks to consider (e.g. concentration risks and the specific risks of each individual holding), such that a more leveraged portfolio is not necessarily always the riskiest (particularly if the other variables are tweaked to the extreme). One should always consider all of these variables, including leverage (which can have a substantial impact on risk).

    I would also caution against using average daily volatility as a reliable measure of risk. Many securities can be stable for many years until they aren't (e.g. high yield bank loans and many M.B.S. securities had extremely low volatility until the credit bubble burst). Volatility and risk are completely different animals.
    Jan 23 05:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Networks: Is This Really As Good As It Gets? [View article]
    ...meant to say "Walking Dead" in February and "Mad Men" in April, not the other way around.
    Jan 22 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Networks: Is This Really As Good As It Gets? [View article]
    It will be interesting, Andre. In addition to the shows you mentioned, the "Breaking Bad" spin-off "Better Call Saul" is slated to premiere in November of 2014 and new episodes of "Mad Men" and "Walking Dead" return in February and April of 2014, respectively. Finally, there's a companion spin-off of "Walking Dead" in early development and expected for release in 2015. So, there's lot's of interesting content in the pipeline.
    Jan 22 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Networks: Is This Really As Good As It Gets? [View article]
    Thanks or the comment and kind words, citoc. As the title of the article implies, you are definitely not alone in your feeling that this is "as good as it gets" for AMC. I very much disagree, for the reasons outlined in the article. As a result, I believe that these concerns have led to an attractive valuation for the company's shares. That said, uncertainty regarding the success of AMC's future programming (and the company as a whole) certainly exists and visibility is inherently limited.
    Jan 21 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Networks: Is This Really As Good As It Gets? [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, UI. I was referring to the increased competition FOR content -- resulting from new delivery channels (i.e. Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime) with an insatiable demand for quality programming. I think you mistook my comment about "increased competition" to refer to more competitors offering content. Sorry if I was unclear.

    Anyway, yours is a completely different issue, but a valid point. There are definitely more competitors now, including youtube do-it-yourselfers and original offerings from the newer players like Netflix. That said, I think that the impact of increased demand (for those that can produce popular, quality content) will outweigh that of the increased supply. Time will tell.
    Jan 21 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Networks: Is This Really As Good As It Gets? [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words, argy1182.
    Jan 20 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Worry About Being 'Right'; Focus On Risk Vs. Reward [View article]
    Nice article, Jake. So many investors ignore these factors and try to pick up "nickels in front of a steam roller" and ignore "tail" risks. It's important to remember that a good result doesn't necessarily mean a good decision and vice versa...it is, indeed, all about risk/reward.
    Jan 19 08:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Networks: Is This Really As Good As It Gets? [View article]
    Perhaps. I haven't really looked at many ancillary companies, to be honest. Interesting thoughts. Thanks
    Jan 19 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Networks: Is This Really As Good As It Gets? [View article]
    Thanks for the comment and thoughts, JBgoose. Youtube type content is definitely a force to be reckoned with, but I think there will always be strong demand for traditional scripted and other professionally produced content.

    As I mentioned, one of the reasons I like the content industry, in general, is because all of these different distribution channels (traditional Pay-TV, SVOD like Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime, and internet VOD) will need quality content and demand for such will remain strong -- benefiting the content providers, overall.
    Jan 18 12:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Networks: Is This Really As Good As It Gets? [View article]
    Agreed, Latinman474. The content game is inherently uncertain (i.e. being unable to predict programming successes), but at least you know that demand for quality content will always be there. Also, you don't have the uncertainty/risks regarding technological trends and competition for the delivery of content -- like cable and satellite operators and companies like Netflix have.
    Jan 18 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Networks: Is This Really As Good As It Gets? [View article]
    Glad you liked the article, wholesum, and thanks for the comment. Best of luck with the position.
    Jan 18 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
449 Comments
606 Likes