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Ted Barac

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  • Questioning The Case Against The Case Against Gold [View article]
    Agreed, Charles...equity investments can be horrific investments if you buy during periods of euphoria and overvaluation. People who ignored valuation and bought stocks at the peak of the Internet bubble are still waiting to get back to even (even in nominal terms). Assuming any asset class is always attractive, regardless of valuation and future earnings prospects, is foolish. Any asset can be a bad investment if priced to high.
    Oct 12 02:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questioning The Case Against The Case Against Gold [View article]
    Dak, The point of the article is actually that gold HAS increased in-line with inflation over the long-term (which is really not a great real return). We do seem to agree, however, that holding cash is an even worse long-term investment, and gold has outperformed devaluing currencies.
    Oct 12 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questioning The Case Against The Case Against Gold [View article]
    The math?

    Let's see. It's been a while since I did this type of calculation, but if memory serves:

    An anonymous, after the fact, claim of buying gold at the 20-year trough and holding through today = worthless.

    Just kidding, duse62, and congrats, if you really timed things so perfectly. It doesn't get better than that. Like I said...many very smart people have made a lot of money trading gold.
    Oct 11 10:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case Against The Case Against Gold [View article]
    Interesting article, Dr. Duru. I just published an article, in response to yours, to keep the debate going.
    Oct 11 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baseball, Apple Pie And Emerging Market Bonds [View article]
    You cannot compare the yields of EM bonds with their US counterparts solely based on debt/GDP ratios, GDP growth, and yields. It's apples-and-oranges.

    The sovereign, political, regulatory, and overall country-risks are substantially greater in EM countries and give reason for a large discount (wider yields) to account for those risks. For example, PCY includes sovereign bonds of Pakistan (Caa1 credit rating; deep junk territory), Vietnam (B1 credit rating), Venezuela (B2), Ukraine (B2), etc.

    Sovereign credit risk goes well beyond an analysis of debt/GDP ratios and GDP growth rates and investing in emerging market bonds and stocks is fraught with risks and should be entered into with extreme caution (particularly by those with limited experience investing and analyzing those specific EM risks).
    Oct 5 03:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint Still Looking Cheap After T-Mobile/PCS Linkup [View article]
    I actually think that acquiring PCS wouldn't be such a bad thing for Sprint (PCS is a better match for Sprint than for T-mobile, IMHO) and reports are now out that Sprint weighing a competing offer. Either way, the future look good for Sprint and the PCS valuation doesn't look stretched (yet).
    Oct 4 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Thing Sprint Needed Was More Competition [View article]
    "Oh I can think of 2.4B reasons."

    Not really. They are using the proceeds repay debt (see below), so it's just shifting on-balance sheet debt off-balance sheet and interest costs are replaced with leasing costs. I don't think that materially improves their competitive positioning.
    Sep 30 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Thing Sprint Needed Was More Competition [View article]
    No, it's not the other way around -- Crown castle is buying the rights to those towers and then T-mobile is committed to leasing the use of the towers from Crown Castle.
    Sep 30 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Thing Sprint Needed Was More Competition [View article]
    How does a sale-leaseback (i.e. debt financing) transaction of an existing competitor translate into "more competition"? Remember that, now, T-Mobile will have to pay CrownCastle for these services and operating cash flow will go down (all other things equal).
    Sep 30 10:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 5 Is Already Outselling Nokia's Lumia Windows Phones [View article]
    Interesting premise...comparing the sales of the extremely well-established and top-selling product of the world's largest market capitalization company (with over a $600bn enterprise value) with the sales of a new product of a $4bn enterprise value company at the earliest stages of a turnaround. Is it really news/article-worthy that the iPhone is substantially outselling the Lumia at this stage?...

    ...or is the author trying to justify the fact that Nokia stock is up about 60% since they were advocating that aggressive investors short the stock in July (when the stock was under $1.70..see link, below)? Fair enough if they are, as we all "talk our books" to a certain extent and their call may ultimately be vindicated. A lot remains to be seen. Personally, I see risk/reward for Nokia shares as very attractive at these levels, but that's what makes a market.

    Also, the $150mn AT&T ad spend for the Lumia was never confirmed or explained and other sources said the amount wasn't even close to that.
    Sep 25 04:49 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan's Depositors Needn't Worry About Its Gambles [View article]
    Your analogies are way off the mark...very different from buying a home you can't afford with borrowed money that you can't pay back.

    The investment bankers and rating agencies are, justifiably, at the very top of the blame list, but many others also bore some responsibility for the subprime debacle. It's easier and cleaner to not think of those complexities (and find one simple scapegoat on which to place all of the blame), but that's actually copping out.
    Sep 24 08:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Mortgage-Backed Bond ETFs Will Increase Your Net Worth [View article]
    In my humble opinion, the FoxNews-esque talking point introduction was unneccessary (this is a financial and not a political site), but moving on to your conclusions...why do you believe that the Fed's highly publicized mortgage-backed bond purchases aren't already priced into these funds?
    Sep 24 07:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan's Depositors Needn't Worry About Its Gambles [View article]
    Apart from reckless banker greed and foolish risk/reward decisions by the banks, those subprime loans existed because millions of Americans overpaid for their homes using way too much leverage (despite witnessing enormous and unsustainable price increases). The banks took on stupid, greed-induced risks, but American homeowners also took on stupid, greed-induced risks and regulation was too lax. There's lots of blame to go around.
    Sep 24 07:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Sprint [View article]
    Verizon only owns 55% of their wireless business (Vodafone owns the other 45%), so the price/sales figure is artificially depressed (100% of sales are consolidated/included, but the price reflects only the 55% ownership of the value of the wireless business). AT&T is more apples-to-apples at 1.72 times price/sales (per Yahoo Finance).
    Sep 24 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Sprint's Good Fortunes Continue? [View article]
    Let's be honest here...the article you referenced/linked was titled "Sprint Is Not Attractive, Even At Current Depressed Levels" and that was published when Sprint was trading around $2.31 and you said, at the time, that you wouldn't consider it unless/until it was under $2.00.
    Sep 24 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment