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Ted Kavadas

 
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  • Thoughts Concerning The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    please see my above reply...
    Nov 1 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts Concerning The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    please see my comment above...
    Nov 1 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts Concerning The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    "What to do" if one assumes oncoming substantial currency weakness is a complex question, and, of course varies among individuals. I'll likely address it in a forthcoming article concerning "safe havens."
    Nov 1 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts Concerning The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    While, like you say, the value of any currency is relative to others, this has already been factored into my analyses...
    Nov 1 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts Concerning The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Yes, my belief is that the future will not be the same as the past, in that the U.S. Dollar has become increasingly vulnerable to a substantial decline...
    Nov 1 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recession Talk Is Dissipating [View article]
    Interesting commentary.

    I would add that as far as the ECRI measures are concerned, WLI and WLI,Gr. - while recently increasing - IMHO still look (at least somewhat) subdued and vulnerable from a longer-term perspective, especially relative to other measures including GDP, the stock market, etc. This can be seen in the longer term charts, as seen in my blog post of Friday:

    http://bit.ly/10dqXgT

    While I have no idea what ECRI will say next, it should be interesting...
    Jan 20 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market: Update On Increasing Risks & Consequences [View article]
    Yes, I continue to believe a massive stock market crash is forthcoming; and I have taken into account ongoing QE measures...
    Oct 12 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market: Update On Increasing Risks And Possible Implications [View article]
    My analysis indicates that there are many asset bubbles in existence. Among the most prominent are the bond market and stock market, both of which I have written extensively about.

    Of course, some bubbles are harder to spot than others, especially during their formation. Some are only clearly evident after their bursting.
    Apr 20 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeing The End Of The Real Estate Death Spiral [View article]
    RE: "I am somewhat comfortable predicting this trend, and believe unless a black swan occurs, home prices will be stable or slightly improving before mid-year 2012."

    Interesting charts and commentary. The consensus (among forecasters) appears to be that we are very near a "bottom" in residential real estate prices, and we will see gradual increases in prices for the next few years. This is seen in many sources, including the just-released Zillow March Home Price Expectations Survey, which I summarized here:

    http://bit.ly/GOTSP7

    I am of the belief that we have yet to see a "sustainable bottom" in residential real estate prices, for a variety of reasons, including the likelihood of rising interest rates. Residential real estate remains a very "tricky" market to forecast, as seen by the frequent, but incorrect, flow of forecasts since the market top that have predicted a "bottom" in real estate.
    Mar 25 09:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Madness This Week: Markets Up, Economy Improving, Recession Still Coming [View article]
    RE: "Also considering the current highly manipulated monetary policy, I shun monetary data points to monitor the economy. It is hard to argue that the post 2007 economy is telegraphing comparable data to any pre-2007 historical data. My bias is towards using non-monetary pulse points which are more isolated from monetary policy."

    While I understand what you are saying in this statement, my interpretation of our current economic situation indicates that there are many "problem areas" in monetary policy. One area that is problematical - and ECRI's Achuthan spoke of this during a February 24 interview - is the velocity of money. While this is a lagging measure by definition, the trend is fairly clear.

    I recapped what Achuthan said on February 24, as well as some charts of monetary velocity, at this blog post:

    http://bit.ly/FTPtJ1


    Mar 18 10:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market - Increasing Risks And Potential Implications [View article]
    By "overall analysis" I mean my total view of the situation. It is comprised of many different factors, far too many to even begin to list in a single blog post. However, I go into significant detail in the links in the post, and there is even more detail on other posts in the blog.
    Jan 13 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Price in Relation to the U.S. Dollar [View article]
    No position in Gold; the disclosure is accurate
    Apr 8 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Price in Relation to the U.S. Dollar [View article]
    re: "Got your share of the physical?" - One never seems to have enough of an asset that is rapidly appreciating like Gold, or Silver for that matter...
    Apr 7 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Will Recover. But When? [View article]
    re: "If the logic of buying when blood runs in the street has any merit, the housing market surely looks intriguing."

    Although it may look tempting to buy, based upon various measures, there appears to be considerable downside potential remaining based upon historical price trends.

    A while back I wrote a post that indicated some price targets for real estate; here is the link for those interested:

    economicgreenfield.blo...
    Mar 29 02:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Immediate - and Dangerous - Market Drivers [View article]
    Yes, the "margin squeeze" issue has the potential to be particularly acute; especially if - as I suspect - the U.S. Dollar continues to fall...
    Mar 29 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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226 Comments
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