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Ted Kavadas

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  • Forecasting a Double Dip: Roubini's Being Optimistic [View article]
    I believe the probability of renewed economic weakness is a near certainty, unfortunately.

    While I agree with the "problem areas" listed in the article, I also believe there are many more as well. The list of problems is very long.

    One such problem area is residential real estate. While many think it is close to "bottom," due to various metrics, I think the situation is very complex and not close to a resolve.
    Mar 11 09:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming of Real, Weak, Imperceptible Economic Growth [View article]
    While there is little question that there has been some exhibition of economic strength, it has been relatively weak and spotty, as seen in the article.

    I continue to believe that what we are now experiencing is weak intermittent economic strength within a prolonged economic downturn.

    What I think will really surprise people is the ferocity of the renewed economic weakness that will ensue.
    Feb 8 11:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Not to Believe In Gold's Recent Rally [View article]
    I believe there to be many signs that disconfirm Gold's recent strong rise. The article points out some of them.

    While I am a believer in Gold's properties, these various disconfirming signals should not be ignored.

    For those interested, here is a blog post I wrote a few days ago on the topic:

    Nov 12 11:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Stories Aren't Being Told? [View article]
    In my opinion, the biggest story is that the U.S. economic recovery (and by extension the global economy) is far less robust, and assured, than is believed.

    While many assume/believe that we are solidly on the road to economic recovery, I do not agree. One should be very cognizant of the fact that often, during long periods of economic weakness (like that we are in now) there are intermittent periods of economic strength that lead to further economic weakness.

    The reasons for this are various, and are discussed at my blog found below:
    Sep 11 11:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Madness This Week: Markets Up, Economy Improving, Recession Still Coming [View article]
    RE: "Also considering the current highly manipulated monetary policy, I shun monetary data points to monitor the economy. It is hard to argue that the post 2007 economy is telegraphing comparable data to any pre-2007 historical data. My bias is towards using non-monetary pulse points which are more isolated from monetary policy."

    While I understand what you are saying in this statement, my interpretation of our current economic situation indicates that there are many "problem areas" in monetary policy. One area that is problematical - and ECRI's Achuthan spoke of this during a February 24 interview - is the velocity of money. While this is a lagging measure by definition, the trend is fairly clear.

    I recapped what Achuthan said on February 24, as well as some charts of monetary velocity, at this blog post:

    Mar 18 10:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Call This a Housing Recovery? [View article]
    RE: "recent activity looks like random noise at the bottom of the barrel."

    If one looks at long-term price trends, as seen in Case-Shiller and CoreLogic charts, the low may be quite a bit lower than current levels.

    Here is a blog post I wrote on the issue, for those interested:

    Jan 27 08:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Look Suspect Heading Into Holidays [View article]
    Thanks for the article.

    There seems to be a lot of conflicting information lately concerning the strength of retail sales.

    I recently wrote a post about Walmart's recent results. Here is the link for those interested:

    Nov 21 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Eric Rosengren doesn't expect the economy to pick up any time soon and recent data "has not been particularly encouraging." In particular, GDP minus inventories has been anemic. Rosengren believes QE2 could add more than 700K jobs to the economy by the end of 2012.  [View news story]
    The latest Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey had an estimate, by economists, on the impact of QE2. Very little benefit -

    ...regarding the impact of QE2: "The economic impact of the Fed's moves is likely to be modest, the forecasters said. They estimate growth in GDP will rise by 0.2 percentage points in 2011 because of the Fed's bond buying and the unemployment rate will fall by less than 0.1 percentage point."

    Nov 17 10:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Calm Before the Stock Market Storm [View article]
    While I agree that there is much to be concerned about, especially with regard to the economy, I do believe that the stock market will break to the upside, at least in the short-term. The 1150 area (S&P500) is serving as strong resistance based on a couple of technical parameters.

    Here is a recent blog post on my thoughts on the future direction of the stock market:

    Oct 4 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rethinking a Dollar-Heavy Asset Allocation [View article]
    I believe the U.S. Dollar is highly vulnerable to a substantial decline, for a variety of reasons.

    While many people think such a decline would be beneficial to the U.S., on balance I think it would present a host of new problems.

    Here is my latest post on the issue, for those interested:

    Sep 30 09:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession Is Over, Now Where Are the Jobs? [View article]
    RE: "I was hoping the NBER would call an end of recession, while saying at the same time that we were in a depression."

    I found this statement very interesting. I would be interested in hearing you elaborate upon it further as to when such a Depression may have started, what measures you think most prominently support such a classification, etc.

    My thinking is that we are in a Depression, with the subpar economic "strength" experienced since mid-2009 the type of intermittent economic strength seen during long periods of economic decline...i.e. a "bounce" that will not be sustainable, unfortunately.

    It almost seems as if The Federal Reserve implicitly thinks this level of economic activity is unsustainable and/or unacceptable as further substantial Quantitative Easing appears imminent...
    Sep 26 11:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Scary Charts, An Update [View article]
    Sadly, I think there have been a lot of "wake-up" calls but we (as a nation) have slept through most of them...
    Sep 24 07:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Has Reached Its Important Top [View article]
    There are a lot of reasons the stock market should not go up from here, including both technical and fundamental.

    However, I believe it will go up, at least in the (very) short term, for a variety of reasons.

    Here is my recent commentary, for those interested:

    Sep 20 09:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Dow 1,000 a Possibility? [View article]
    RE: "If we were to see Dow 1000 there would be many more problems greater than the low price of stocks."

    Very good point, John. My belief is that the economic circumstances accompanying a Dow 1000 level is not something one would want to ponder, much less live through.
    Aug 9 04:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators at Negative 9.8; Has the ECRI Blown Yet Another Recession Call? [View article]
    Thanks for the commentary.

    IMHO there is a lot of misunderstanding with regard to ECRI's data, methodologies, and interpretations. It strongly appears as if the professional and analytical community has failed to do extensive due diligence and/or research to gain a thorough understanding of ECRI's work.

    For those interested, my recent article on movements of the WLI Growth from a long-term perspective:
    Jul 21 09:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment