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Ted Kavadas  

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  • Revisiting Home Prices [View article]
    This article presents interesting ways to look at home price trends. Thanks for posting.
    Sep 16, 2010. 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bob Bronson on Chicago Fed National Activity Index [View article]
    Thanks for posting. This is a very interesting perspective, for sure.

    My own thoughts is that the CFNAI is very vulnerable to decline given our current economic situation.

    Sep 9, 2010. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Why QE Could Trigger a Collapse of the Dollar [View article]
    I agree that QE2 has potential to seriously impact the dollar.

    A serious decline in the U.S. Dollar is not something that receives a lot of attention now. However, there are many factors, both technical and fundamental in nature, that lead me to believe that the U.S. Dollar is vulnerable to a substantial decline and QE2 will only worsen the downward pressures.

    Here is my latest blog post on the issue:

    Aug 24, 2010. 05:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The worst is yet to come: The recovery is a "cover-up," and the U.S. is headed for the "greatest depression," Gerald Celente predicts. The crux of the problem is that the middle class has been wiped out, he says - "everything is for the big guys," and the government is killing entrepreneurship.  [View news story]
    I agree that the economic condition will continue to worsen, for a variety of reasons.

    I also agree with Celente's claim that we have never had a true recovery.

    Here is my recent blog post on the subject, for those interested:

    Aug 20, 2010. 11:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lower Educated Workforce Is Not Jobs Positive [View article]
    RE: "I do not see any evidence of a double dip at this point."

    Steven, I'd be interested in if you follow the Consumer Metrics Institute's data, and if so your thoughts. It seems to be indicating future GDP growth will be far less than the consensus expectations. For those interested, here is my recent blog post on the subject:


    Also, I think that interpreting ECRI's WLI Growth at this point is tricky, as I recently wrote about in a Seeking Alpha article.

    Of course, neither of these indicators should be wholly relied upon. But their current readings should not be dismissed out of hand either.

    In total, I continue to believe that although it may appear to be a low growth economy, our current economic "strength" is the type of intermittent economic strength that is common during long periods of economic weakness; and as such the economy will soon descend back into significant contraction, unfortunately.
    Aug 15, 2010. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Avoids Finding an Exit Strategy [View article]
    Although I don't agree with all of them, Schiff makes a lot of valid points.

    I definitely share his concern over the U.S. Dollar. While few seem concerned about the U.S. Dollar, I see it as being vulnerable to a large decline. Here is my post on the subject:

    Aug 15, 2010. 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Dow 1,000 a Possibility? [View article]
    This is an interesting "take" on the Dow 1000 issue. The price projections of these stocks at a Dow 1000 level are reminiscent of the type of stock price collapse companies experienced during The Great Depression.

    I have written (the article is listed in Seeking Alpha) that I believe Dow 1000 (and lower) is a possibility, based on a variety of technical and fundamental issues.

    Aug 9, 2010. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Dow 1,000 a Possibility? [View article]
    RE: "If we were to see Dow 1000 there would be many more problems greater than the low price of stocks."

    Very good point, John. My belief is that the economic circumstances accompanying a Dow 1000 level is not something one would want to ponder, much less live through.
    Aug 9, 2010. 04:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Jobs Number Imply a Leg Down? [View article]
    RE: "There is no data to indicate a further degradation in the jobs situation."

    I assume that you are making this comment based upon the employment data, as opposed to the overall macro view? Or both?
    Aug 8, 2010. 04:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Confidence Still Worse Than Last 4 Recessions [View article]
    Yes, I agree that readings of consumer (and small business) confidence are remarkable at this point.

    Here is a set of charts from my blog that show consumer and small business confidence from a long-term historical perspective:

    Aug 4, 2010. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 GDP Report: 5 Important Things You Need to Know [View article]
    Good points.

    I think the main issue, even if one assumes the GDP figure is accurate, is how sustainable is the growth?
    Aug 1, 2010. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Recession Ended [View article]
    I have yet to read the entire paper, but I have seen similar arguments before and have found them massively flawed.

    I view the economic strength (weak and spotty that it has been) since mid-2009 as temporary economic strength during what will prove to be a long period of economic weakness.
    Jul 30, 2010. 10:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Bubble Will Not Be Reblown; Foreclosures Increase in 154 of 206 Metro Areas With Population Over 200,000 [View article]
    I agree with many points in this article.

    My analysis indicates that there is much potential downside left in housing; the issues involved are very complex and have been resistant to the outsized intervention efforts so far.

    In addition, from a practical standpoint I am seeing lots of signs of distressed real estate locally (Chicago area)

    Here is the last post I wrote on real estate, for those interested:

    Jul 30, 2010. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Observations on the Spike and Rapid Decline of ECRI's WLI [View article]
    I think that the Consumer Metrics Institute work is very interesting and valuable. I wrote a post about it yesterday, and plan on writing additional posts soon...
    Jul 28, 2010. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Economy Entering a Deflation Trap? [View article]
    Interesting article.

    RE: "They run an economy on asset bubbles for twenty years..."

    It would have been interesting had the twenty year period mentioned been indicated.

    My view on the subject is that there are many asset bubbles currently.
    Jul 23, 2010. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment