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Ted Kavadas

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  • Observations on the Spike and Rapid Decline of ECRI's WLI [View article]
    RE: "here's some hard hitting financial journalism.

    "I believe the wild swing from 2008 to the present is very significant for many reasons"
    one of which is:
    "I find the long-term chart ... itself to be rather interesting"

    You are quoting out of context. Perhaps you did not understand what was written. The first quote above refers to the WLI Growth...the second quote to the WLI itself, as stated
    Jul 19 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Welcome to the Dreaded Japanese L [View article]
    Thanks for the well-presented summary.

    As the various charts and information show, there are many aspects of this economic situation that are (very) sub-par from a historical perspective.

    The commonplace existence of such, as well as various problems in monetary and fiscal policy, make me believe that, unfortunately, not even the current "low growth" situation is sustainable. My latest article discusses an alternative to the consensus "low-growth" scenario:
    Jul 18 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Still in Recession? [View article]
    The CalculatedRisk blog post you cite is well worth reading. One can see why NBER may be hesitant in calling an end date to the recession given the various measures cited in that blog post.

    If this is indeed a continuing recession, it is very long by historical standards. One question that I have posed is whether this is a continuing Depression, with the relatively weak and spotty economic growth we have experienced for roughly the last 12 months just representing intermittent, transitory growth in a long period of steep economic decline? Here is my post that talks more about the subject:


    Jul 6 03:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Ten Reasons to Be Bearish [View article]
    I agree with many of the points.

    Perhaps one item that I think deserves to be on the Top 10 is various disconcerting aspects (and manifestations) of monetary policy.
    Jun 25 11:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Current Economic Conditions: As Good As It Gets? [View article]
    Interesting article...I especially found Achuthan's interpretation of the WLI noteworthy.

    As far as a "V" recovery is concerned, that possibility has long since passed, even though some stubbornly cling to the possibility. Here is a Seeking Alpha article I wrote on the subject:
    Jun 7 10:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Consequences of M3 [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I found various parts interesting.

    For those that argue collapsing M3 isn't a major issue ~ it is just one of many statistics that is acting in a very atypical fashion from a long-term historical perspective.

    Here is one of my previous blog posts with charts illustrating these other statistics:

    May 28 06:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Root Cause of the U.S. Housing Bubble Has Yet to Be Addressed [View article]
    Very good article and comments.

    RE: "The Federal government continues to pour tens of billions of dollars..."

    I believe that once one adds up all the direct and indirect aid, including all stimulus, interventions, and "guarantees", we are in the trillions of dollars now.

    I think that our real estate situation is vastly complex and not well understood - which bodes poorly as far as ultimate consequences.

    For those interested, a blog post I wrote about the overall residential real estate situation:


    May 28 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liz Ann Sonders: Recovery Moving to Self-Sustaining Mode [View article]
    Thanks for posting this interview.

    I disagree strongly with many of her points, especially with regard to the sustainability of this recovery.

    For those interested here is a recent article on my views:
    Apr 27 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the Economic Sweet Spot Be Sustained? [View article]
    "Sweet Spot" is an interesting phrase, as is the comment "With the Fed on permanent hold..."

    I don't believe the recovery is sustainable, unfortunately. In fact, I think that one of the largest risks is the existence of bubbles, which I explain here:

    Apr 26 09:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Economic Data Just Isn't Bullish [View article]
    I am in agreement that the purported recovery is weak and spotty. Furthermore, IMHO, it is not sustainable, unfortunately.

    I have extensively written about various aspects of economic weakness. There are copious amounts of data that indicate that this recovery is at best weak. Recently I posted two new charts that underscore the severity of the economic weakness relative to our long-term historical experience. The charts can be found here:

    Apr 25 02:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Self Sustaining Recovery? Not Yet [View article]
    I don't believe this "recovery" is sustainable, due to a variety of factors.

    The NFIB survey indicated in the article is very informative on many fronts; here is my blog post on it for those interested:

    Apr 22 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Stock Market May Be Topping [View article]
    Thanks for the article...some very good points.

    I believe that market conditions are far more perilous than meets the eye.

    There are many "red flags" - one of which is that the VIX is at 15.96, yet near-term VIX futures are significantly above that level. June VIX is at 20.95, October is at 23.40. These spreads have usually been a warning sign, although it can persist for a while.

    There are many other extremes as well; I may write a post on them soon.

    As well, the fundamentals of the "real economy" are very worrisome. I've written about this extensively on my blog, Seeking Alpha instablog and Seeking Alpha articles.
    Apr 14 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenspan on the 'Blossoming of Finance' [View article]
    Thanks for the "warning" - but I saw it too late...I've watched the whole interview...

    I found it very interesting...his premise about the "bursting of bubbles" that you mention is highly significant.

    Also, "blossoming of finance" quote is great - destined to be a classic. I wrote an article on it here:
    Mar 29 10:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which 'Scary' Charts Are Actually Scary? [View article]
    As the author of the two "Scary Charts" articles I found this article of interest. I think a contrary opinion is valuable. Needless to say that these charts and their implications can be argued back and forth.

    As I like to say, "time will tell" as to what significance these charts have with regard to our future economic condition...

    fyi, here is the link to "Scary Charts II" :
    Mar 26 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Trade of the Decade: The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    The article presents some interesting points...

    However, I side with those who believe the US Dollar is vulnerable. One, among many reasons, is the vast U.S. National Debt (especially when viewed on an "accrual basis") as well as ever-growing budget deficits.

    For those interested, here is a recent post on my blog that talks of the U.S. Dollar situation from a fundamental and technical perspective:

    Mar 23 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment