Ted Stamas

Long only, value, growth at reasonable price
Ted Stamas
Long only, value, growth at reasonable price
Contributor since: 2011
Very nice article. I've been allocating some capital to the Vanguard Europe ETF (VGK). Pays a nice dividend while I'm waiting for the overseas economy to pick up, plus offers some diversification.
You made the right call. Good luck with your new projections.
I haven't been following the stock recently. I'm also out of small caps since the sell off may not be over.
On a Price/Sales metric, it's still expensive. It's a very good small cap company, but I'm not convinced the overall market sell-off in small caps is over, especially new IPOs.
Hi Charles, I apologize for not rebuting your original comment about $FUEL and $TRMR, but i was on vacation and couldn't get to a computer. That said, in the short run, $FUEL has been a bad investment, being sold off with the rest of the recent IPO high fliers. On a price/sales metric, it wasn't that expensive when I wrote the article,and it certainly isn't now being only about 2.5X 2014 revenues. I still maintain that it will beat the S&P 500 in a year's time which i stated in the original posting. After all, Seeking Alpha is about about long term investing, not short term price fluctuations.
I don't know a lot about $TRMR, but I have a background in $FIO. Although $FIO and $FUEL were both hot IPO's, they have nothing in common other than residing in the technology sector. $FIO's downfall was a reliance in two companies $FB and $AAPL which constituted over 65% of sales, plus $FIO's product got commoditized. $FUEL has a highly diversifuied client base, and to this date, is not a commodity product.
If you own $TRMR, congrats on a nice short term trade. I can't sugarcoat my investment in $FUEL since this is a public forum. However, the next conference call is May 8th. I hold my stocks longer than many investors, so we'll see how this one plays out.
Good luck with your investment. It's not dirt cheap, but if the market continues to rally, stocks like $FUEL should get their mojo back.
I don't know when the selling will stop. Although I've dollar cost averaged from $46 to $36, I've taken a beating with $FUEL in the short term. I thought it was reasonably valued when I when I wrote the article, and with the sell-off, has become more of a bargain. I checked Yahoo Finance today, and on a trailing twelve month basis, is selling at 5X sales. I tend to hold my stocks for a longer period of time than many investors, so I'm still confident the equity will beat the market in 2014.
Besides the NASDAQ decline (which includes many recent IPO's), another item that may have caused the stock to plunge is the recent initial public offering of competitor Rubicon Project ($RUBI). I don't know, it's just speculation on my part. I'm playing the space like an exacta in horse racing with bets on $MM and $FUEL. I'll try to do follow-up articles on both companies when they report earnings (or lack thereof).
Thanks Adam. I apologize for not getting back to you sooner, but have been out of town with limited computer access. Rough day in the market today.
I remember my articles about Velti, too. Didn't work out so well for me. Thanks for reading and commenting.
You make a very good point, that stocks like Tableau can remain inflated for years. Nevertheless, they can come down in price which is exactly what Tableau and other big data analytic stocks are currently experiencing.
According to the Tibco CEO in their most recent conference call, Tableau is gaining mindshare, which accounted for muted sales for Tibco's Spotfire. If you believe the market is ready to take off again, this could be a nice entry point for Tableau.
I never compared both companies. I said I owned shares in both companies. JumpTap was primarily a programmatic advertising organization. That's why Millennial Media acquired them (it was more like a merger). Millennial Media is currently integrating the technology.
I agree with that, but am taking a leap of faith that FUEL can keep on executing with the large addressable market. 5X 2014 projected sales isn't too expensive if the bull market remains intact.
SPLK went from $104 to $73.
Good luck.
IBM was a coup for DWCH. They also have a lot of excellent alliances with OEMs internationally. Like you said, Q2 should shed some light on the IBM participation. Thanks for reading.
Thanks Mark. The size will be $300M, or about 3.3M shares at Friday's $90.31 close, with an underwriter greenshoe option of another $45M.
Pure valuations if you are referring to the data mining pure plays. It's just a hypothetical opinion on my part. I believe that rotating out of the overpriced sectors that have outperformed would be good for the overall health of the entire stock market. You never know when you're in a bubble until it pops, but a lot of the new technology pure plays are way over their skis in my humble opinion. If we get that long overdue 10% correction in the S&P 500, the high beta stocks usually get killed.
Business is seasonal for Splunk with the 4th quarter being the most heavily weighted in regards to new contracts. A price/sales ratio of 32 is not a steep discount. If you are just going from a price appreciation metric, then you are correct. It has dropped 20% in a week and a half. Good luck with your investment.
They already have 102 million shares on the market. The next dilution could put additional pressure on the shares. Thanks for commenting.
Thanks for reading my article. Good luck with your investment. Splunk seems to be a promising company.
Although the technology is promising, it's still up in the air as to how fast the adoption of haptics will be. From what I've read, the automobile sector won't be a significant revenue driver for a couple more years. This is on the assumption that haptics will become standard in all cars down the road. Thanks for reading.
I experienced the crashes of 1987, 2000, and 2008. I keep more than half of my investible assets in cash because I got burned too many times in equities. That said, I like investing in stocks. However, the current bull market has had a significant run, and gives me the heebie jeebies, although it can go significantly higher with the help of the FED. Too many market pundits pound the table and tell you that equities are the only place to put your money. I totally disagree. You may not be getting a heck of a lot of interest in today's environment, but with a low inflation rate, you are somewhat protecting your assets by being in cash.
Thanks for reading my article.
I think it's a lot like the net neutrality issue that's been a hot topic here in the states. At least that's my interpretation of the article. If that is the case, I don't believe it would effect SNCR.
I don't believe WhatApp's service will effect SNCR.
I think you're comparing apples to oranges here. WhatsApp is a text and soon to be voice messaging application for smartphones. Yes, you are correct, it is taking revenue away from telecom carriers. Synchosnoss activates smartphones, and they also do data sync, share and storage in the cloud.
The carriers are looking for additional revenue streams that traditionally have been relegated to the handset manufacturers. They lose money when they subsidize smartphones (although they gouge the consumer with wireless voice and data plans). Backing up all consumer and small business data is a way for them to wrestle some of the income from the companies like Apple and Google.
I hope that helps.
I'm not sure if there is a flaw in the business model. Their growth suddenly slowed down due to competition, and seasonality. The number of publishers on their network has doubled during the past year.
As I mentioned earlier, I disagree with you. Thanks for commenting.
Here is another link to an article this weekend on AdExchanger about the new CEO, the two new board members and the Yahoo $YHOO connection: http://bit.ly/1dpo8Ae
The growth is in the 20% range for the year. The 20% growth is for the next quarter if I'm reading things correctly. He may deliver higher growth rates if they integrate the two companies quicker than anticipated. Thanks for commenting.
I agree it's a risky stock, but they still have many valuable assets, especially in the programmatic area. I'm not going to hang onto the stock forever. I'll give them another quarter unless the price drops too much. Mobile World Congress is this week. Maybe they'll find a buyer.
Thanks for the comment. I really don't follow HIPP because they are an over the counter security. My personal belief is that 2014 will be the year of the mobile advertising exchanges, and that there will be a lot of M&A in the space for the independents. I've read other articles about HIPP, and like you stated, they have a very nice client base.
I recently took a flier on Millennial Media because of their merger with JumpTap which will allow them to do more robust real time bidding, or programmatic buying. If HIPP is engaged in real time bidding, they could see significant price appreciation. That's all I know off of the top of my head.