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Ted Waller  

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  • Peabody Energy Champions Transition To Low Carbon Economy [View article]
    Windmill, what a great idea! Buy up the coal companies and shut them down. In addition to air pollution it would eliminate light Pollution at night.
    May 3, 2015. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Champions Transition To Low Carbon Economy [View article]
    The developing world is going to burn more coal every year because it is cheap and gdp growth trumps air quality for them. Just a few years ago China was opening a new coal-fired plant every week. Only rich countries can afford the large subsidies for solar and wind.

    BTU at $4.50 is the investment opportunity of a lifetime. I have seen the commodity price cycle in a number of industries, and each time people act like the industry is dead. Someone has to produce the many billions of tons of coal used each year. BTU management is smart and proactive on behalf of investors and I am proud to invest there.
    May 3, 2015. 09:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Should One Bet The Farm On Commodity Prices? [View article]
    Personally, I don't want to own any company that has a non-trivial chance of BK period, and no one can deny that Linn is in this category. But that's my own risk tolerance Level.
    May 2, 2015. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Secular Bull Market Resumes, Buy Freeport-McMoRan [View article]
    You make a good case on technicals and world economic growth. The supply demand fundamentals seem to be going in the opposite direction and tell me that the world is going to need less copper and not more. As just one example, all the billions Chinese used to invest in housing is now completely redirected into stock market speculation. Alibaba and Tencent don't use copper in their business. Even in Europe growth is not good as all the QE goes into financial assets. Quelle surprise.
    May 2, 2015. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ Editorial Page Watch: 'The Slow-Growth Fed'? [View article]
    Yes, a life preserver that was thrown in the water 6 years ago and is still there with the sailor. Oh, the sailor is surrounded by numerous other life preservers thrown in periodically as well. According to some the problem is we didn't throw in enough of them.
    Apr 30, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Income Strategy: What You're Not Thinking Enough About [View article]
    Adam, I see quite a few people here at SA who are 50% or more in BDCs, mREITs, oil MLPs, etc. and are almost giddy about the 10-20% more they get income. You are too polite to say it but this is madness -- unsustainable and subject to large reductions in both income and capital. Even newbie investors don't have an excuse because it has already been demonstrated in multiple sectors.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:19 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Perspective [View article]
    I hear you, Ginny. It takes strength to stand your ground, just as in 1999 and 2007. It helps to also remember 2002 and 2009, when incredible bargains were everywhere.

    I am also concerned about seniors overallocated to stocks. The Fed has driven them there, which is a disgrace and something for which they will eventually be held accountable. I am retiring before too long and am being very careful to only invest in things which are most likely to continue to provide income regardless of the economy.
    Apr 28, 2015. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Perspective [View article]
    Good lord, the similarity in your 3 charts is eerie. I am 35%in cash. Not forcing oneself into a stock position is great advice. Bargains are rare right now. I did buy BTU recently at 4.5.
    Apr 28, 2015. 08:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Q1 Earnings Call: Business As Usual, But What Sort Of Business? [View article]
    global coal demand will increase until at least 2035 according to all impartial projections. BTW is in excellent position to meet demand. Investors are going to make big money over the long term. I'm very happy with my investment.
    Apr 26, 2015. 10:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks: Timber! [View article]
    First coal demand plummeted, then iron and copper, then oil, now lumber. If the economy is good, shouldn't there be robust demand for these things? I don't understand.
    Apr 23, 2015. 02:19 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: The Crusade To Hold Back The Inevitable Continues As Market Conditions Worsen [View article]
    BTU has made many more smart moves than dumb ones. Spinning off Patriot Coal was huge. They have restructured a billion $$ of debt and pushed out maturities. They diversified into Australia. They have positioned themselves to be the big survivor:

    "While Q1 results missed, Citi's Brian Yu believes BTU is "structurally different from its weaker U.S. peers," noting that BTU outlined $685M of potential annual cash improvements by early 2017, including $275M of lower cash payments related to PRB reserves and $335M of savings due to lower currency rates and fuel prices as hedges roll off."

    I am buying shares this week.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: The Crusade To Hold Back The Inevitable Continues As Market Conditions Worsen [View article]
    user, I am very serious suggesting that you can double up on BTU for a measly $2500, then forget it until you get all your money back at 10. There is no US coal company in a better position to survive. When ANR and the other weak ones disappear the law of supply and demand will come back with a vengeance, even with a slow decline in consumption in the US. Somebody in the US is going to have to produce almost a billion tons a year for a long time to come.

    As for Keith's hope that dysfunctional India will reduce coal imports, this from Reuters:
    "Going by existing trends and a soft trend in international markets, India's coal import of all types in 2015-16 would be more than 260 million tonnes," mjunction Chief Executive and Managing Director Viresh Oberoi said in an email on Tuesday. According to official data, India imported 168.4 million tonnes in 2013/14, while mjunction put the figure at 181.58 million."
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: The Crusade To Hold Back The Inevitable Continues As Market Conditions Worsen [View article]
    User, hang on to your BTU shares and be patient. When the weak companies are gone BTU will be up 3x or more from here. It's a simple supply and demand situation, part of a commodity price cycle very durable over a century or more. In fact doubling up from here is an inexpensive option for you. BTU will survive and prosper. Someone has to produce almost a billion tons of coal every year just in the US.
    Apr 19, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: The Crusade To Hold Back The Inevitable Continues As Market Conditions Worsen [View article]
    Both China and the US consume a billion tons of coal a year each. 8 billion tons is the global total and it is going up. Sorry, Keith, but someone is going to have to produce a lot of coal for a long time to come. Who do you think that will be, Keith? Which coal mining companies are most worthy of our investment dollars?

    The Q1 reduction in China imports is a rounding error for BTU. India's proclamation to eliminate coal imports is worthless considering their basket case of a domestic mining industry, and in fact is based on increasing their own production not reducing energy use.
    Apr 17, 2015. 10:45 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned - Confessions Of A Financial Adviser [View article]
    This article would make a good checklist to review every time an investment is being considered.

    Regarding reversion to the mean: I believe that at 20x earnings vs. 14x average the market is about 2 standard deviations from the mean, which means it is far, far away from the mean and not "a bit expensive." The mean over the last 20 years is somewhat higher but still quite expensive.
    Apr 16, 2015. 11:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment