Let me clarify and - respectfully - I will say that I over generalized. I will give you a detailed response because I did like your article as opposed to many yahoos on this, and other, web forums who just cite technicals and don't provide any fundamental details.
Jennings owned nearly 550K shares in Feb of last year and now owns just over 300K. He has no options according to the last proxy (page 44) and and was granted 5800 in RSA's last year.
Granted there is nothing wrong with him taking money off the table but most of his comp is now in cash and he is 46 years old. These are Facts. He can sell all the stock he likes, and he will likely be granted more though they have yet to file their proxy.
Since the close of 03/07 when this sale hit the tape HFC has underperformed most of their group by over 200bps or more. That is another fact. Maybe it is very short term but for those of us who manage money for others and have to mark our books each night, talk to clients, LP's, investment committees, risk officers or whomever it is not insignficant.
Brent - WTI is widening which is likely more correlated to HFC performance than anything else (haven't done that regression) but I wouldn't be so dismissive of RINs. You never know.
Nice article. RIN noise is considerable but HFC's president selling a large chunk of his holdings last week was also a terrible signal. Refiners are also weak on contraction of the Brent-WTI spread.
Cadiz: Helping To Hydrate A Thirsty California [View article]
We all appreciate your article and commentary on the California Water situation but all your bullish prognistications miss one point which has been made over and over again in the comments:
this company has no cash and no visible means to raise cash for all of its activities which, even under the most optimistic scenarios, will take some time.
In the real world we call this insolvency and given their debt stack that may become bankruptcy.
Cadiz: Helping To Hydrate A Thirsty California [View article]
Thanks for your article and the commentary on the state, or lack of, water in California.
There are some other challenges facing Cadiz: the Metropolitan Water Authority, who operates the aquaduct, are not likely not very fond of CDZI. They went through a lengthy lawsuit years back after CA Gov Gray Davis engineered a deal between them. Putting that water on the aquaduct, hexavalent chromium and all, is not a given.
Also, CDZI is being sued by numerous entities inside and outside of CA because their aquifer underlies federal land and draining it is of environmental concern. These entities include the Mojave National Monument and a Marince Corps Base at Twenty Nine Palms.
CDZI does have some water - the USGEO disputes their survey - but may well be in lawsuits for some time to come.
They also have rescheduled their debt a few times and are burning cash at the rate of a few mil a year - for a handful of employees, some d&o insurance, and an office in LA.
Vail Resorts: Way To Go Despite Profit Warning [View article]
Good company but I have to agree with the other two commenters: way overvalued. It is priced like a growth stock and is not.
It appears they sold through their season passes last year earlier in the fall and sales, and mountain visits are down. Moreover Colorado is still in a drought and MTN needs to access water to make snow, that is becoming frequently more difficult. The National Ski Areas Association and the U.S. Forest service recently got into a dispute over water rights. Though the first round went to the NSAA on technical grounds, such disputes portend a further degradation of their business model.
2 Stocks With Yields That Could Double Your Money In 5 Years [View article]
No mention of CIM's portfolio holding. Prepayment speeds, the fact that CIM is mostly non agency and hasn't filed any financials for awhile (OTI dispute with Ernst and Young) and therefore faces a greater risk of getting their repo lines pulled than many other mreits. Or that CIM may, or may not, have cut their dividend again as they have done in the past.
Buy HFC On Current Weakness [View article]
Jennings owned nearly 550K shares in Feb of last year and now owns just over 300K. He has no options according to the last proxy (page 44) and and was granted 5800 in RSA's last year.
Granted there is nothing wrong with him taking money off the table
but most of his comp is now in cash and he is 46 years old. These are Facts. He can sell all the stock he likes, and he will likely be granted more though they have yet to file their proxy.
Since the close of 03/07 when this sale hit the tape HFC has underperformed most of their group by over 200bps or more. That is another fact. Maybe it is very short term but for those of us who manage money for others and have to mark our books each night, talk to clients, LP's, investment committees, risk officers or whomever it is not insignficant.
Brent - WTI is widening which is likely more correlated to HFC performance than anything else (haven't done that regression) but I wouldn't be so dismissive of RINs. You never know.
Buy HFC On Current Weakness [View article]
Cadiz: Helping To Hydrate A Thirsty California [View article]
We all appreciate your article and commentary on the California Water situation but all your bullish prognistications miss one point which has been made over and over again in the comments:
this company has no cash and no visible means to raise cash for all of its activities which, even under the most optimistic scenarios, will take some time.
In the real world we call this insolvency and given their debt stack that may become bankruptcy.
Cadiz: Helping To Hydrate A Thirsty California [View article]
There are some other challenges facing Cadiz: the Metropolitan Water Authority, who operates the aquaduct, are not likely not very fond of CDZI. They went through a lengthy lawsuit years back after CA Gov Gray Davis engineered a deal between them. Putting that water on the aquaduct, hexavalent chromium and all, is not a given.
Also, CDZI is being sued by numerous entities inside and outside of CA because their aquifer underlies federal land and draining it is of environmental concern. These entities include the Mojave National Monument and a Marince Corps Base at Twenty Nine Palms.
CDZI does have some water - the USGEO disputes their survey - but may well be in lawsuits for some time to come.
They also have rescheduled their debt a few times and are burning cash at the rate of a few mil a year - for a handful of employees, some d&o insurance, and an office in LA.
Thanks again.
Vail Resorts: Way To Go Despite Profit Warning [View article]
It appears they sold through their season passes last year earlier in the fall and sales, and mountain visits are down. Moreover Colorado is still in a drought and MTN needs to access water to make snow, that is becoming frequently more difficult. The National Ski Areas Association and the U.S. Forest service recently got into a dispute over water rights. Though the first round went to the NSAA on technical grounds, such disputes portend a further degradation of their business model.
2 Stocks With Yields That Could Double Your Money In 5 Years [View article]
Not an in depth analysis of CIM.