Light, Sweet Crude for February delivery rose US$2.15, or 2.7%, to settle at US$81.51 bbl on the New York Merc.

In London, Brent Crude for February delivery gained US$2.19 to settle at US$80.12 bbl on the ICE Futures Exchange.   

The Overall Technical Outlook:  Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude Oil's rally from 68.59 extended further to as high as 81.16 on Monday and at this point, intra-day bias remains on the Northside, looking at the 82.0 resistance next. This development suggests that medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress and a test of the 82.0 high will augur a move to the next Key resistance level at 90.

On the Downside: A close below 79.12, the minor support, will turn intra-day bias Neutral and bring about a retreat, probably to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 77.49), but a break of the 73.61 support is needed to indicate that Crude Oil has topped out in here. So, my short term outlook is now changed from Neutral to Bullish.

The Big Picture: the strong rally from 68.59 and sustained trading above 55 days EMA augurs that the medium term rise from the Y 2009 low of 33.2 is still in progress, and headed for another high above 82.0. A break above this 82.0 level will target the next Key cluster resistance level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90, a Key level. I will still be alert for a reversal signal as the rise from 33.2, which is treated as correction to whole fall from 147.27, is expected to conclude inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone.

The Long Term Picture: there is no change in the POV that the fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the 5 wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and I have to prefer the case that rebound from 33.2 is a corrective rise only. There looks to be strong resistance between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone, and may well bring a reversal to test 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27. Stay tuned...

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                                     Gold advances as USD retreats on Monday

Gold price advanced as the USD retreated Monday. The February contract rose to as high as 1124.6 before closing at 1118.3, up + 2%. The USD set back in the beginning of the year with the dollar index dropping -0.4% to 77.52.

The "Greenback" declined against major currencies including the Euro, the Yen and the GBP. Strong economic data, rather than raising speculations about an earlier Fed rate hike, spurred demand for high yield assets.

Savvy observers agree that this situation may be temporary. The US employment report may surprise to the upside on Friday and again fuels expectations that the Fed will tighten the monetary policies earlier than previously scheduled, supportive for the US Dollar. It's a factor for the speculators, I see no rate tightening for a long time.

Over the past 2 yrs, the inverse correlation between USD and equity market was strong, but the link should weaken this year as investors will be focusing more on country specific factors such as monetary and fiscal policies.  Stay tuned...

The Overall Technical Outlook: Comex Gold (GC)

Gold's break of the minor resistance at 1114.5 augurs that the rise from 1075.2 is resuming and flips the intra-day bias back to the Northside for 1142.9 resistance. A break there will indicate that whole fall from 1227.5 may have completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this resistance.

On the Downside: a break below 1093.5, the minor support, will indicate that consolidations from 1075.2 may have completed and will bring resumption of the decline and to the 1075.2 support and perhaps below.

The Bigger Picture:  the rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of 5 wave sequence with the the 1st wave completed at 1007.7, the 2nd wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3, and the rise from 931.3 is treated as the 3rd  wave, and that has possibly completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. If so then a deeper pull back could be seen to  the 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000, the Key level. Nevertheless, the downside should be contained well above the 931.3 support and bring up-trend resumption to another high above 1227.5.

The Long Term Picture: the rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up-trend from the 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 completed in form of an expanding triangle. So, the next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at the 1460 level. I am now Bullish long term as long as 931.3 structural support holds. Stay tuned....

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                            US Dollar weakens, Stocks and Commodities Rise

The US Dollar came under heavy pressured on Monday as Solid Manufacturing Data boosted Risk Appetite

US Dollar was pressured on soild data as investors' risk appetite got a boost as the New Year started Monday.

Commodity currencies were the biggest winners as China PMI manufacturing rose to 56.1, highest level since April 2004.

Strong growth in the manufacturing sector in China will boost demand for commodities.

Crude Oil rides on the optimism and breaches 80 level today while Gold also rises to as high as 1124.6 so far. Data released from US saw ISM manufacturing index rose more than expected to 55.9 in December.

The GBP was lifted against the USD as PMI manufacturing in UK rose to 54.1, highest level in 25 months.  Sterling somewhat lags behind other majors currencies, and has indeed weakened against commodity currencies and Euro.

Data from Eurozone saw PMI manufacturing revised up to 51.6. Sentix investor confidence, though, missed expectations by rising to -3.7 only. Euro continues to under perform Aussie and Loonie. ----Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com

In what is eerily similar to Orwells 1984, the world is separating into 3 main trading blocs, Europe, the Americas and Asia. Just like 1984 we also have the endless war, the war on terror which has resulted in legislation and Government policy aimed more at the nations citizens than at the "enemy".

2010 Hot Countries
The last decade has seen China emerge as the worlds second largest economy, a manufacturing powerhouse that will be delivering 100s of millions of new consumers to the world market place over the next few years. China's growth has been and remains phenomenal, but not without change. As China's economy expands and matures as it currently is, it is will not remain a low cost production base, its success will lead to China becoming a developed market and growth will shift to the balance of Asia.

The hot spots of 2010 and beyond will be India and Thailand. India, the darling of the 90s has been left in China's shadow over the last 10 years, but in the next 10 years India will be replicating China's growth.

India has some advantages over the balance of Asia, the legal framework for doing business is familiar to the west, english is widely and well spoken. We estimate India will out perform China in the second half of the decade, Chief Economic advisor to the Finance Ministry, Kaushik Basu has said India would grow by over 7.5% this fiscal and 9% in the next fiscal year.Manufacturing output increased for the ninth straight month in December, mainly to accommodate a faster inflow of export orders.

Thailand, Five emerging export markets are buoying hopes for sustainable growth in Thailand's exports this year, amid rising western protectionism, high competition and fragile but steady economic growth in the Kingdom's traditional markets.

the Department of Export Promotion (DEP) expects 14-per-cent growth in 2010, estimating the value of exports at US$172.27 billion (Bt5.72 trillion). This is based on a baht exchange rate of 32-33 to the US dollar.

The Commerce Ministry estimates last year's exports will end up showing a contraction of 15 per cent to a value of $151.16 billion. Officially, the country's total shipments dropped 17 per cent to a value of $137.95 billion in the first 11 months of 2009.

To achieve the export target in 2010, the DEP plans to deploy both a budget and a task force to drive exports in each destination.

Director-general Srirat Rastapana said priority would be given to strong promotion of exports in five emerging markets: Asean, India, China, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, especially Russia.

"Those five destinations are regarded as emerging markets with strong demand for various products and low non-tariff barriers. Step by step, they will play a more important role in the country's exports in the future," Srirat said.

Of the total funds available to the DEP to drive exports, 65 per cent will be spent in the five emerging destinations and new potential markets like Africa and Latin America. The rest will be spent on promotion in Thailand's traditional markets: the US, 15 EU countries and Japan. Asean nations will be the top-priority export destination in 2010, following implementation of the Asean Free Trade Agreement last Friday.

Srirat said trade integration within Asean would pave the way for Thai export growth, because there would no longer be tariff barriers. The market will have a population of 580 million close at hand.

The proportion of Thailand's exports going to its nine Asean neighbours could grow to 22 per cent this year, from 15 per cent at present.

Exports to Asean members are projected to grow 4.58 per cent to $29.28 billion this year, from an estimated contraction of 26 per cent last year.

India is a second-priority market following its significant economic growth over the past five years. The Reserve Bank of India and the "World Trade Atlas" have reported India's economy will continue to grow in 2010. India's exports are expected to grow strongly, by 18.6 per cent to $289 billion this year, while imports will grow at an even higher rate as demand climbs for world products.

Thailand's major export is tourism, No, it is not, today, among Thailand's top manufactured export products are : textiles and garments, gems and jewellery, leather goods and footwear, computer and components, intergrated circuits, plastic products, toys, electronics and electrical appliances, and automobiles. The position of Thailand's export products in the world market is now ;

The world's largest exporter of canned pineapple and canned tuna,
The world's number one exporter of rice, rubber, chilled fish and prawns,
The world's largest exporter of precious stones,
The world's second largest exporter of sugar and tapioca products,
The world's third largest exporter of hard disks and integrated circuits.
The world's fourth largest exporter of frozen chicken, maize and cut flowers.
In fact, Thailand's remarkable achievements in her export performance are due to its competitiveness in terms of price and quality, backed up by a skilled, flexible and efficient labour force.

Ebeling Heffernan has strong exposure to both markets, India through Neah Power NPWZ www.neahpower.com that has already signed commercial and infrastructure deals in India.

In Thailand we are invested in a multitude of  sectors with a focus on manufacturing.

2010 Hot Sectors

Green Industry, once the domain of hippies and idealists will become mainstream, invaded by bankers, brokers financiers and investors. Green Energy is the hottest sector, in fact I think Green Energy is the next big thing. Whether it is Solar Power, Electric Cars or Fuel Cells, green energy will dominate infrastructure and consumer spending over the next decade, why, because it is cheap. I would like to say people care about the environment and the change is for the social good, but I can not. Green Energy will dominate the next decade based on price competitiveness, and it will win out over alternate forms of energy.

Green Energy companies that are integrated, versatile and global will become the corporate giants of the future, consumption of energy will not be reduced, it will simply be replaced. The worlds energy market is one of, if not the biggest revenue earner in the corporate world.

The race now on to gain access to markets and develop momentum and branding of Green Energy technology around the globe. This is a multi billion dollar race that will cross over into many industries, but first will be transport and grid power.

Ebeling Heffernan are very excited about our investments in NPWZ Neah Power www.neahpower.com and their Fuel Cell Technology breakthroughs, Asian Energy and its Solar Production and Government Electricity supply contracts and Ronn Motors RNNM www.ronnmotors.com with their fuel saving H2GO equipment.

Crunch Time for Globalization
Protectionism vs Globalization will be a hot political issue in 2010, Nafta, Afta and Europe will all face challenges as Globalization displaces workforces and redefines the economic landscape. Wealthy nations will lose non skilled labor work to developing nations at a higher rate in the coming years.

Work forces and Unions will call for protectionists policies and sadly some of the weak willed politicians will support them.

There will be a Rally
Politics aside, the massive injection of funds by Governments around the world must result in a rally, not even politicians, as ignorant as they are to the basic theories of economics can mess this one up. It is a fact, that a massive injection of funds into and economy will increase the economic activity of that economy for a period of time.

It will also create inflation and may lead to higher taxes in the future, but firstly it will create a rally. In the case of the USA with Trillions of dollars expended that rally will be a big one, 13000 plus on the Dow is my prediction for 2010. This takes into account the growing number of foreign listed companies, the large amount of revenue from US companies that comes from International markets, Inflation and increased consumption.

 

Playing the Pinksheets

This year we will show you why there is more money in taking companies off the Pinksheets than there is in putting them there.

Shayne Heffernan www.livetradingnews.com

Fact: China has more than 100 cities with more than 1,000,000 population each, and there is huge business in each of them especially in the 2nd and the 3rd tier cities. The opportunities abound.

Recently I learned that in late September 2009 Pitney Bowes, the world's leading mail system provider, signed a deal with Digital China, in a bid to expand its business to small- and medium-size companies across China. The Stamford, Connecticut based company entered Chinese market more than a decade ago, but its high-end hardware and software tools and services that support effective customer communications have been only available to large companies in cities like Beijing and Shanghai. Now, that technology is widely available in China.

"With the tremendous growth of the Chinese economy, (there are) more and more opportunities for small and medium sized companies to do mailings for both transaction purposes and marketing purposes," Michael Monahan, CFO of Pitney Bowes told Xinhua.

Digital China appears to be a perfect partner. As China's largest information technology distribution and service company, Digital China has a presence in 600 Chinese cities and a network of more than 5,000 resellers and system integration partners.

Many US investors have noticed that the Chinese government's vast efforts on inland/western development have led to GDP gains in inland provinces that have significantly outstripped traditional coastal counterparts. And that is a Key element in the continuing growth of the countr

Fact: 13 provincial level regions reported double-digit GDP growth in Y 2008, with Inner Mongolia region leading with 16.2% GDP growth compared to 7% for the coastal Shanghai region.

Example: One Chinese company which is based in the Inner Mongolia region made it to the Nasdaq Global Select Market in Y 2009.

Check this out:   Zishen Wu, CEO of Yongye International, Inc., did not impress Wall Street investment bankers when he showed up in old worn shoes covered with dust. But when he told them his company's patented plant nutrient would boost production by 10 to 30% and has been popular among Chinese farmers, he finally went home with the largest investment a Chinese agriculture technology company has obtained in Y 2008.  Just a year later, Yongye successfully switched to the NAS from OTC.BB

                     More and more companies like Yongye have attracted US investors.

By December, 2009, the NAS had 32 new listings from China, including 9 IPOs, Robert McCooey, senior vice president of New Listings and Capital Markets of the NASDAQ OMX Group reported at year's end.

    One highlight of this year's new listings from China, McCooey pointed out, is the "great geographic diversity."  "We have companies from all different industries and provinces. We have our first listing from Tianjin; we went from no listing in Henan Province to 4 listings," McCooey said, "And now we have listings from 11 to 12 different provinces in China."

McCooey had traveled three times to China since May 2009 and planned to visit more. "There are tens of thousands enterprises in China with global aspirations, and Nasdaq is expecting more of them in the future," he added.

Fact: Global aspirations are not limited to large brands any longer. Overseas investors have become aware of the less known small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) in China, which have constituted an essential part of the national GDP as the government establishes policies and funds aimed at promoting innovation and entrepreneurship.

The Statistics show that over 60% of GDP, and 70% of the import and export value had been contributed by SMEs by the end of Y 2008.

The US capital markets opened arms to these Chinese SMEs. In April 2009, Changyou.com Ltd marked the first IPO on the NAS and was the largest Chinese IPO on a US exchange since December 2007. And less than 6 months later, another Chinese online video games operator Shanda Games became the 3rd largest IPO in the US market in Y 2009 with a raise of US$1B.

Another area that Chinese companies have submitted great performances in Y 2009 is the Green Energy. New York-listed solar companies like Suntech and Yingli Green Energy have far outperformed the the US Big Board.

For foreign investors, Chinese government's policy and measures to spur the SMEs have been another huge plus.

China is a green tech leader spending US$30B on Green Technology as part of its current stimulus plan. An example of the new government policy recently unveiled is the "Golden Sun" initiative: the goal; achieve solar power generation by Y 2011.

Further, In Y 2009, China decide to launch venture capital foundation for small businesses, to issue a 1st batch of pool bills to help small firms raise funds, and the Nasdaq-style board ChiNext started trading by the end of October, 2009. 

The Big Picture: China's growing story will involve more cities, and more companies with entrepreneur spirit with government backing. And US investors will likely explore new territories of prosperity for benefits from the rising Chinese economy. ----Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com

Next week, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes for its latest monetary policy meeting. Investors are closely watching the minutes and a major speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for any clues about policy outlook of the central bank.

Thursday, the Euro bought 1.4321 dollars in late New York trading compared with 1.4334 dollars it bought late Wednesday. The GBP rose to 1.6169 dollars from 1.6069 dollars. The dollar fell to 1.0473 Canadian dollars from 1.0554 Canadian dollars, and rose to 93.07 Japanese yen from 92.46 Japanese yen. It fell to 1.0356 Swiss francs from 1.0370 Swiss francs. ---Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com