The Balanced Bull

The Balanced Bull
Contributor since: 2010
Company: The Balanced Bull
I don't have a specific one year price target but I think we'll see $500 a share by the end of 2012, maybe much sooner. I prefer to look at current valuation and accumulate shares when it looks too cheap, like now.
Thanks Brian,
In the past my estimates have come in slightly below the actual results. I try to be a bit conservative with my estimates but of course try to get as close as possible.
I think an HDTV from Apple is pretty much a lock, it's just a matter of timing (2012 or 2013?).
I agree Apple is undervalued. I think that will have to be the topic of my next article. Thanks again.
The ASP estimate is based mostly on what Apple has reported in the past. I agree that the discounted older model iPhones could lower the ASP for this quarter. The good news is that if there's a higher mix of older models sold, I think the total number of iPhones sold this quarter would be higher than my estimate of 28 million. A little give and take.
This will be big for Apple. Can't wait to see how the stock reacts if/when there's an official announcement of the deal. Could be at the iPhone event in Sept. (long AAPL)
haha, I like your point about Yahoo ;) It's probably true
Glad to see Baidu diversifying beyond search. They're also working on a mobile OS and a browser (just following Google's playbook).
never mind, must have been a glitch. My blog is back.... at least for now. phew!
Google shut down my blog after I posted the above article (it was on blogger and they shut it down within an hour of the posting). I'm thinking I'm on to something here.
Luckily I had my blog exported and have all my writing saved. Will have a new blog up on wordpress soon.
Crazy night...
Agreed with comments above. Check out "Baidu vs Google Which is the better stocks?" Article is a few months outdated now but covers this topic.
Thanks for the heads up. With that number of shares outstanding the EPS would drop to $6.84
I agree with the "if you have an app for that you don't need a search engine" idea. I wrote about that a few weeks ago in 4 Undervalued Facts About Apple.
As for the invite only thing (from comments above) I think it's smart to work out the kinks before a full launch and creating an appeal through scarcity. But yes, some people might lose interest in it over the weeks.
Apple seems to be putting the rough start behind it and looks ready for a good second half of the year. A lot of nice catalysts coming over the next six months.
Nice move in Apple this week as markets finally starting to realize how undervalued it was/is. A lot more upside ahead in my opinion.
thanks, I cracked a little smile while writing that.
no way this drops below $300 unless something catastrophic happened. I would be surprised to see it drop to the support in the mid $320's. I agree this is a spring being pushed down and getting ready to explode higher. One thing that worries me is potentially weak iPhone numbers ahead of the next model launch but the valuation is already so low. I see limited downside and a lot of upside.
Congress seems to be interested
Those issues are not BS. They are actual problems the company has been facing. I'm a big Apple fan, as anyone who reads my articles knows, but the facts are the facts. It's not been a real smooth year for Apple but, as I conclude in my article, these issues have kept the stock price lower than it otherwise would have been. Should be going up from here.
I agree. YOKU is a good short here. Any hiccup and it goes back to 40s or 30s.
Looking for about 5 billion in net income and about $5.42 in EPS. This might be a bit conservative but I think better to miss low than high. Good luck to all.
Don't think I was included in the Fortune Tech roundup. Maybe next time.
With my estimates I try to hit as close as possible to the actual numbers while also remaining somewhat conservative, especially since people could be making investment decisions based on my research.
If my numbers turn out to be correct the street will be disappointed and the stock would probably take a hit. I do think there are some serious question marks about iPad supply, component costs and iPhone sales. The iPhone 4 has been out for about 9 months now so some people will likely be waiting for iPhone 5. The Verizon launch, in my opinion, will help save this quarter.
It's been fun to watch in the past as the bloggers have been more accurate than the Wall Street analysts. Not sure that will be the case on Wednesday. Hoping for a big quarter but expecting inline to slightly below consensus. Can't wait to find out. Cheers.
My outlook for Google remains the same and I think longer term investors would do well buying shares at these levels. This is a company that doesn't try to cut costs to increase quarterly profits. They do what is in the best long term interest of the company, even if that means spending a lot on R&D, acquisitions and headcount.
The only thing that has changed over the past few months is the continued loss of market share in China. That is surely a concern and even though I applaud Google for taking a stand it is a huge market that they are missing out on. My guess is that sometime in the future the Chinese gov will be forced to uncensor the Internet and information but it's hard to say when that would happen.
Might be wise to take a small position at this level and see if shares fall further before loading up.
Thanks for the correction flavorP. Looks like Yahoo Finance has that number wrong, should of double checked it.
I agree that Tesla is like a young Apple in many ways. A high tech innovator looking to disrupt an entire industry. They do it with technology and design.
The Apple vs Google battle continues to heat up with the announcement of competing subscription models for iOS and Android. This story will be playing out over the months and years as we find out if media and content providers accept Apple's deal and give them the 30% cut. Google will be taking a 10% cut for in-Android subscriptions. Thoughts?
I agree and think Baidu will be wise enough to move aggressively into social media now, to get ahead of the competition.
Glad to hear of Google doing this. Of course it's in their best interest to gain users but it's also in the interest of democracy.
One point though, Google gaining 22% of the tablet market is not accurate. That number was based on units shipped to retailers, not actual tablets sold (if I remember it correctly).
Long GOOG
Also long UTA. Thanks for the research. Good stuff.
great info. thanks. Will you give us your opinion of $DANG?
Long NEP as well. I agree on all points. This stock can move up quickly on positive news so it should be a fun year to be invested in NEP.
I disagree that Facebook is overvalued at 50 Billion. If/When they choose to monetize more of the site they will be able to pull in many Billions in revenue and profits.
Look at Salesforce.com (CRM) trading at 258 times TTM earnings or BIDU (which I own) trading at 35 times revenue. They are valued so high because of growth prospects.
Paying 100 times current earnings for Facebook would be a steal in my opinion. Facebook will show huge growth in earnings and revenue for many, many years to come. I would buy shares today if given the chance.
I think innovation will accelerate over the years and the big companies that fail to be flexible will loose ground. Exciting times ahead!
I really like LFT at these levels and think I may start a position this week.