Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He is a co-founder of The Baseline Scenario. James Kwak is a former McKinsey consultant, a co-founder of Guidewire Software, and currently a student at the Yale Law School. He is a co-founder of The Baseline Scenario. All opinions expressed here are those of the authors alone, and not necessarily those of the organizations with which they are affiliated or any other organization or person. Visit The Baseline Scenario (http://baselinescenario.com/ )
Tales From The Future (tftf). I picked my nickname because many advisors and investors claim they can predict the future of the (stock) markets and somehow pick the winners. I don't. I usually do not engage in short-term trading and myopic analysis (quarter by quarter, without looking at the big picture). I like to work with long-term scenarios with a focus on possible disruptions in the technology and energy sectors. I look into value and contrarian ideas as well as emerging technologies and growth stocks worldwide, both on the long and short side. I also like to discuss the influence of monetary policy on global stock markets. I am fiercely independent in my investment research and therefore use the image of a lone Ninja. This influenced my investment principles for the past 20+ years: Pick your targets with patience. Do your OWN diligence. Never follow the herd blindly: 'Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.' General Sector Focus: Technology/Internet, Value, Disruptors, Energy/Alt Energy, Entertainment Stocks and Monetary Policy/Geopolitics. Geographical Focus: USA, Western Europe, Japan. Sector 'Halo' Focus Stocks: AAPL, TSLA... PS: Not a native English speaker. I apologize in advance for any typos and grammatical errors.
Evaluation of the dominant assumptions and an understanding of the dynamics of the economic engine is the basis of an approach to asset allocation that provides for both a rational determination of value and an understanding of sentiment in the form of price as a measure of the irrational nature of the operational environment, an approach that is intended at once to avoid unnecessary risk while at the same time enable gradual rebalance of assets as a means to increase net worth via optimization of appreciation and long term yields. Let's call that buy low and fly high just for fun.
My lifestyle revolves around my yacht near the Florida Keys, where I live with my wife Rita. Since late last year I have been on a voyage through the Caribbean, on an indefinite hiatus from this entertaining internet site. For over three decades I was a professional engineer, researcher, and entrepreneur in the northeast, and even spent several years in the 90's in China helping to found an engineering company. Later in life I finished a PhD and consequently found myself better able to argue economics with my distinguished cousin Anthony Downs. These days I focus on those bargain stocks that remind me of the deals I found during the 1970's bear market. Like many of my friends, in 2011 I am bullish on some stocks in the solar sector.
I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months. I run a number of screens to locate the strongest/weakest stocks out there, using technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. Trying to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks in my opinion is out of date and there is wisdom in crowds.I've developed a market timing system that determines when it's best to be long, short or on the sidelines, using a number of proprietary indicators based on many time frames. I believe that to have longevity in this field one must find ways to calm the mind and trade from a detached point of view. Emotionless trading will allow you to respond to what's going on right now in the markets, rather than reacting to daily fluctuations.View my personal blog http://zentrader.ca/
Clive Corcoran has been an independent trader, on both sides of the Atlantic, for more than 20 years. In recent years he has been engaged as a course developer and tutor, providing international executive education workshops and individual mentoring. He is also an FSA registered adviser and provides wealth management services and investment advice to private clients.
As an author he has written Long/Short Market Dynamics: Trading Strategies for Today’s Markets (Wiley, 2007) and several titles for the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment (CISI). A new book entitled Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets is scheduled for publication by Wiley Finance in December 2012
He has been a regular analyst/contributor to CNBC Europe and other broadcast outlets, runs executive education workshops in conjunction with Euromoney, ICMA and Thomson Reuters, and has been a featured speaker at international trading and investment expos.