I hold multiple undergraduate degrees with concentrated focus in the fields of Psychology, Sociology, History, and Economics. Prior to working as an independent strategist for a handful of clients, I was employed as a behavioral economist for a private London based group. Before that, I worked for domestic entities such as FBR and ACC Capital. In terms of equities analysis, my focus is strictly on long term investments, emerging biotechnology entities, distressed or undervalued companies, and maritime commerce. In terms of market analysis, my focus is on the market implications of social and non-traditional factors. I do not discredit more traditional technical and fundamental analysis, but I value greatly the largely underrated, and often forgotten, historical evolution of capitalism and capital market psychology. Thus, some articles I write will be highly speculative and unorthodox, and will likely represent a minority opinion. Others, when undervaluation is a motivating factor for the article having been written, will be highly technical and metric based. Also, I urge readers to consider the premise of investment horizon, and authorship intention, when reading my contributions. Many of the articles for companies which I endorse will be deemed "long term", which I generally consider to be no less than 2-3 years unless otherwise noted. Moreover, some articles are written simply to test a potential investment thesis in an effort to garner feedback about prospective positions. In the latter, the "Risk" segment of articles will be thoroughly detailed and should be heavily weighed. Many such pieces will be long "ideas", not necessarily long "recommendations" or "endorsements", and it is imperative that readers understand that prior to any assumptions being made or conclusions being drawn. Thus, I would implore readers to consider my articles carefully and thoroughly, and to ask any questions they may have pertaining to publication purpose if not otherwise clearly defined. I will always do my best to respond in a timely fashion. Lastly, I am a fervent proponent of the value brought to investments by behavioral finance theory, and I utilize this premise in all equities analysis. Anonymity Disclosure: I am fully cognizant of the fact that some readers question the integrity and/or accountability of anonymous contributors. Please know that my preference for privacy is a two fold consideration; (1) I remain under a revolving open contract to consult for an entity where I signed a lifetime NCND agreement. In order not to risk violating any potential terms of that agreement, now or in the future, I maintain a very low web based profile. (2) I am a proponent of unbiased analysis being openly shared among prospective investors. However, in order to ensure no collisions occur between professional patronage and personal privacy, I have elected to utilize anonymity as the barrier between the two.
Started trading between classes, and before work in college. Coming from a background in Biology, Chemistry, and Physics I see the markets and economy from a unique perspective. An economy is identical to a living organism in that a number of individual cells organize, refine, and distribute energy and resources in a way that maintains the system.
If any resource - be it a material, energy source, or specialty trade - becomes the "limiting reagent" in the physical system, then ALL biological/economic processes slow even when other resources may be in abundance. If the limiting reagent is, say, welders for fracking wells, then wages for the limiting reagent rise until enough it is no longer a limiting factor - in economics this is price changing to create equilibrium in supply and demand.
For any given biological process there are thousands of separate biochemical pathways, some are preferred because they are more efficient, but when a resource in that metabolic pathway becomes scarce a less efficient/more resource intensive pathway will pick up the slack - this is what we call substitution in economics.
If the system grows more rapidly than the supply of resources (again, this is everything from commodities to employees) then the price of every limiting resource rises - this is known as inflation. The goal of Federal Reserves is to have growth in supply of resources match the growth of the system as a whole giving a stable inflation rate.
However, since interest rates are set throughout the economy without discretion to different sectors we see some sectors grow slower than they could given available resources, and other sectors grow faster than supply allows.
A prescient current comparison would be the fracking/energy sector and the housing sector. Due to invariable interest rates between industries the fracking sector is growing faster that the supply of labor can keep up with - this raises the costs of fracking. If interest rates were higher for this sector the activity would moderate to where fracking growth equaled supply of the limiting factor - labor. On the other hand, housing is relatively weak and could use lower interest rates, which is partly achieved by QE focused on mortgage backed securities purchases to free up and reduce the cost of lending to that sector.
Economic recessions can be foreseen by viewing through this lens. During the growth phase of the economic cycle different sectors will grow at different rates. Instead of applying individual interest rates to each sector, the entire economy is given a blanket rate. This causes a schism between different sectors. As the cycle continues specific sectors (that should have higher interest rates) will grow faster than supply of resources can accommodate while other sectors (that should have lower interest rates) experience deflationary pressure due to oversupply of resources.
At a certain point the divergence is great enough that a change in interest rates, in any direction, will have a severe impact on one sector of the economy. If interest rates are raised (due to inflation pressures), then the sector with oversupply will be pushed over the edge. If interest rates are lowered, then the industry that needs higher rates will overheat since supply of the limiting resource is already scarce.
All that is needed is a strong eye for what sectors of the economy are in a state of oversupply (delfation) and undersupply (inflation). Match this to changes in interest rates and you can predict which sector will be adversely effected as rates change, and can get a strong indicator for whether those changes will be large enough to spill over to the larger economy.
Emerging Investor is an engineer refining his investment strategy. As an individual investor I seek growth of both my retirement and my taxable accounts. I seek alpha on my own rather than relying on proffessional advisement.
Investment style emphasizes:
- Diversify assets to reduce volatility and risk. - Minimize tax liabilities by portfolio allocation and management. - Minimize the effects of inflation on investments.
Individual Stocks - ETFs - Municipal Bonds - CEFs.