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  • ChannelAdvisor December Data Implications For Amazon.com [View article]
    Gary, I assume you are buying like crazy right now, right?
    Feb 12 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact From UPS And FedEx Price Increases On Amazon.com [View article]
    Name me other companies who were this ridiculously overvalued and that ended up, over decades, growing in value? This is unheard of. Not sayign it's not possible, but why would it be different this time?
    Dec 22 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact From UPS And FedEx Price Increases On Amazon.com [View article]
    Wow. I've heard this before. It never ends well.
    Dec 20 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact From UPS And FedEx Price Increases On Amazon.com [View article]
    Exactly. I just asked a high school class today what "investing" was and they said "putting money into something and it going up or down in value." So I asked "Is gambling and the lottery, therefore, investing?"

    I don't know what "smart money" is because the last time I checked, chasing a stock because everyone else has it and they don't want to be left out isn't very smart. And that's what money managers do. They have to. I don't blame them, but don't say that you're right just because momentum is working.

    Gary: If Amazon went to $10 per share tomorrow, would that make Amazon a bad investment? I would argue that it's a good deal now! But according to your theory, $403 down to $10 means bad investment.

    Do you see my point?
    Dec 20 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact From UPS And FedEx Price Increases On Amazon.com [View article]
    Yep. Investment. That's what I'd call it too. (Insert sarcasm here) As is said above, the fact that you can't say whether AMZN is overpriced or under priced shows the lack of understanding of the fundamentals of a company. Nothing in the world of AMZN says "good buy" from a fundamental valuation standpoint. Could it still go up? Of course. But it has a lot of catching up to do to even justify today's value.
    Dec 18 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact From UPS And FedEx Price Increases On Amazon.com [View article]
    http://yhoo.it/18Ox3Jx

    HAHA! Everyone is drinking the cool-aid. I love how they are comparing Bezos to Jobs. Yeah, Jobs' company made $37Billion last year and Amazon made...?

    This stock is unreal.

    And please stop saying you're "investing" in Amazon because the definition of investing is not this...this is speculation.
    Dec 17 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Profitless Prosperity [View article]
    I am interested to find out what "smart money" Gary is referring to. The only people I know supporting AMZN are the ones who don't understand financials and investing or are short term traders.

    I don't consider analysts smart at all. I don't consider money managers smart at all. They jump ont he AMZN train because if they are right, they ride the wave up and if they are wrong, they say "everyone else got it wrong too." That's not investing. That's pandering.
    Oct 27 05:35 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com: Short Term A Guess, But Remaining Long-Term Optimistic [View article]
    Gary, I am not kidding. I realize that the stock has gone up, but it's not worth $363 per share. And real money being returned to real investors is in the form of dividends and retained earnings. I want my return to be secure and not based on speculation, as is the case from Amazon.

    Amazon has no business being worth $363 today. If you believe that, you aren't an investor. You are a speculator. It may work today and tomorrow, but eventually it will come back to haunt you. It's no secret that the best long term money managers are ones who buy based on value and business fundamentals...not castles in the sky.
    Oct 27 05:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Profitless Prosperity [View article]
    Of course this is spot on! If this were a start-up! This is a company that is 17 years old and has $70Billion in sales and still cant make money!

    Look at every other business out there: Ford, GM, Microsoft, Wal-Mart, GE...etc...they ALL INVEST back into their businesses and spend billions doing so. But what else do they do? They are able to make money. Consistently. Look at old company Microsoft. This company is considered dead and yet their revenues increased by 20%, I believe, while Amazon also rose, but for a company that is still playing the "growth" card, how do we justify the value?

    Also, the one thing you didn't mention is that valuations are based on metrics. Would you buy ANY business for 10 times revenue? CRM is worth $32Billion but it has $3Billion in sales? Really?

    I definitely agree in paying for future potential, but don't pay whatever...pay a reasonable amount and discount for your risk that you are taking. Don't just give them the keys to the car before they have proven they can drive. A 2 year old will be able to drive someday, but we don't give them the keys because they haven't yet. Let's not give Amazon a valuation of $165Billion before they have earned that or even the potential.

    If they stopped spending like crazy on Cap Ex, what would their NOI be? They would still be no more than $3Billion and with $165Billion valuation, that's still 53 times earnings! Come on. Give me a break. I believe in giving value for future growth, but still it has to be reasonable.
    Oct 27 05:11 PM | 36 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com: Short Term A Guess, But Remaining Long-Term Optimistic [View article]
    We can speculate all day long about their actions, and to me, a company that has over $70Billion in revenue needs to stop acting like the growth start-up of 17 years ago and start returning money to investors.

    How is it not a major concern that they have yet to do that?
    Oct 27 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com: Short Term A Guess, But Remaining Long-Term Optimistic [View article]
    Value Investor, the problem is, you aren't comparing apples to apples. ALL companies reinvest...look at WMT and their cap ex budget and expenses. They are ALL reinvesting...AND making money....AND paying out a dividend....AND are brick and mortar, so they have more costs.

    You can't say that Amazon is only not making money because they are spending a ton more now. WMT actually spends MORE as a % of revenue than Amazon does. So why are we giving credit to Amazon for something they are doing inefficiently?
    Oct 23 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com: Short Term A Guess, But Remaining Long-Term Optimistic [View article]
    And I agree...how are you a value investor if you like Amazon? The point of value investing is finding companies that are worth a lot more than they are selling for because the market is ignoring them. This is the exact opposite. You would never buy Amazon in full for $150Billion today. If you would, you would go broke eventually. This MAY work out for you, but 9 out of 10 times, it won't.
    Oct 21 05:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com: Short Term A Guess, But Remaining Long-Term Optimistic [View article]
    I am a bear on Amazon. I don't doubt it's a great service. But for 17 years, it hasn't made much money. I think, in total, it has made $1.6B...IN TOTAL.

    I get that it is willing to sacrifice short term gains for long term value. That's awesome. But why give them the value TODAY for what they are trying to build tomorrow? THAT is why it's a scary long term proposition.

    Amazon is just a company that is trying to build long term value by investing today. Unfortunately, there are also other companies that do the same thing AND make money and pay dividends.

    In Amazon's best year ever, their margins weren't as good as Wal Mart and Wal-Mart has brick and mortar! That's supposed to cost more to operate.

    I don't doubt that they are investing for the future but please, let them prove that their investment is working before we drive their stock price up.

    I am short Amazon and I have been killed on it so far. But short term results don't worry me.

    If you assign a 20 PE to its future earning potential (which is still aggressive), at today's value, it needs to make $7.5 Billion and with margins of about 3.5%, that's $215 Billion in revenue (which is almost 4 times greater than today...even growing at 20% per year, it will take them 7 YEARS to get there). Can you wait until they get there and earn that money before you give them a stock price worth $150 Billion?
    Oct 21 05:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will This Secular Bear Market End Or Has It Ended Already? [View article]
    RROSEY2: Thank you for the comment. Yes, some of your points are what hurts markets long term. There are always negatives to every situation, even when markets are booming, like now.

    I think the important thing to see is that there are certain basic metrics that are important when evaluating markets. There are always going to be some negatives. I am sure back in August 1982 when the big secular bull started, there were tons of negatives...but it's valuations that matter. And right now, valuations are NOT conducive to a secular bull anytime soon.
    Jun 19 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Danger Of Shorting Tesla Motors: The Amazon And Salesforce Factors [View article]
    And where is discussion on profit margin, profitability and multiples of profitability? Isn't that what really matters when valuing a company?
    Jun 11 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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