Seeking Alpha

The Capitalist Manifesto

 
View as an RSS Feed
View The Capitalist Manifesto's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    I'm not waiting for the "drop some"...I am waiting for the collapse that this stock deserves.
    Jun 10 07:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    Hope you're right Paulo! My short took a big hit today but I believe in the long term value of Amazon...to the downside.

    It amazes me, to this day, that people are still drinking the KoolAid
    Jun 10 07:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons To Keep Amazon In Your Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks for the article.

    I find it interesting that everyone still doesn't have exact numbers when talking about the bottom line and there is constant focus on Jeff Bezos. If it's all about how brilliant the CEO is, why wouldn't Berkshire Hathaway sell for 200+ times earnings? If any company would deserve that, it's them.

    The REAL bottom line is that Amazon has a hard time making money, even when factoring in their capital expenditures. In no way, shape, or form is this company a $120 Billion company.

    At the end of the day, the only thing that matters IS the real bottom line. When they are making $7 Billion to $8 Billion in profit per year, it will be a $120Billion company because their growth potential will have decelerated significantly.
    May 29 04:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Margins Take Another Hit As Sales Growth Slows Down [View article]
    Lucas, it is great when all the arguments are bullish...remember, be fearful when everyone is greedy.

    There are SO many solid arguments for why we should be short Amazon. The question is, do we have the time to wait...I do, so I choose to be short. I am in the positive on my short now but that was only as of late. I was in the hole for quite some time.

    Moat?!?! Ha. It's an internet company that sells stuff. Yes, it has a big brand, but what kind of moat is a moat where margins are 2%? Hardly worthy of getting deemed a "moat."
    Apr 30 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Margins Take Another Hit As Sales Growth Slows Down [View article]
    Gadget, I believe ALL great companies reinvest and diversify. But they also make money. In Google's rise from their 2004 IPO, do you remember a time when they sold for 200 times earnings? Or anywhere close to that? Talk about an innovative company and a DIVERSIFIED company.

    This is not meant to disrespect, but the "reinvest" and "diversify" argument is made by those looking for a light at the end of the tunnel. At the end of the day, even without their diversification, Amazon is still selling for 70+ times earnings...still way too rich.

    Anyway you skin the cat, it's drastically overvalued and yes, I am short the stock .
    Apr 30 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Margins Take Another Hit As Sales Growth Slows Down [View article]
    Thanks for another article proving that Amazon is overpriced. :)

    One of these days, everyone will stop drinking the kool-aid and start to realize that a highly valued business needs to make SOME money to show that it's reasonably worth the value.
    Apr 29 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks You Shouldn't Sell [View article]
    Thank you for the article.

    RE: Amazon

    Even if you add back in the entire R&D cost from last year of $4.5Billion, it still makes it a stock that is selling for 27 times earnings. Hardly fairly valued.

    In addition, no company EVER eliminates Cap Ex spending entirely. Everyone has to keep expanding and developing their business so that growth can still come in the future.

    Any way you cut this, it is still drastically overpriced. Yes, it still has potential for growth, but what kind of growth is it? It has to spend more to make less on a margin basis. In addition, they don't include the cost of their shipping as part of their gross margin which deceptively shows a higher gross margin.

    Thanks again for the comments. Sorry I focused solely on Amazon.
    Apr 15 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Amazon Law' Is The Signal To Sell Far Overpriced Amazon [View article]
    You are 100% correct Turk. Shorting, if you have a long term approach and can weather it financially, will likely work out for someone on AMZN if they shorted anywhere above $100 per share. However, you have to have the stomach to be down a lot of money. I don't mind shorting more as the stock price goes higher. But I am also a long term investor who doesn't care what my shorting options are worth at any given time. What I do know is that Amazon is not a $250+ stock and is definitely below $100...it will just take time before the market adjusts.

    When the bulls are raging, it's hard to make money on shorting. I think we are at the tail end of a cyclical bull, so that should help AMZN collapse soon...at least I hope. :)
    Mar 22 06:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Amazon Law' Is The Signal To Sell Far Overpriced Amazon [View article]
    HA! oh. Look at how closely I read that part. I tend to skim over forward earnings. I never understood the point of them since they are usually wrong anyhow. :)

    Sorry about that guys. My mistake. Either way, even at forward looking optimistic earnings, it's still terrible. Sigh. One of these days, the shiny alluring stock will lose its luster.
    Mar 22 03:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Amazon Law' Is The Signal To Sell Far Overpriced Amazon [View article]
    Dave Dierking: Where did you get a 70 P/E from?!?!? It's way higher than that, even stabilized, based on past year's performances. It's in the 200+ range. Their best year was $2.50 per share in earnings, which still makes it a 100+ PE. And that's based on its BEST year.
    Mar 22 02:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash Is King, Yet Everyone Hates It - And It's Driving Every Asset Class Too High [View article]
    Marty, thanks for the comment.

    You are right. That is true, but remember, taxes are bad, but so is a big drop in the market. You DO have to consider taxes, but remember, if your basis isn't very small, which it likely isn't due to the sideways market over the past 13 years, then there are probably not much in terms of taxable gains. So that tax issue isn't really a big reason to sell.

    But let's say your basis is very low, you bought in the late 80s or early 90s. If your basis is 40% of your value, right now, you are still looking at an 18%-22% tax of your overall value. I think this market could definitely see a bigger drop than 18-22%. Then really, the tax isn't as bad to pay. And if the market drops 20% or so, and your basis is 40% lower than today's values, you will still have the tax burden AFTER the drop.

    You did bring up a great point.
    Mar 22 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Amazon Law' Is The Signal To Sell Far Overpriced Amazon [View article]
    I am a short on Amazon. I shorted at $257.78 so just recently went into the positive on it. I am a believer than it is a $30 stock, at best, based on reasonable valuations.

    Thanks for the comments. It's truly NOT a hard thing to understand, but so many people are caught in the euphoria of how great the company or Jeff Bezos is. My response is always, "if they're so great, why don't they make money?" And the response is "because they are growing!" Google made PLENTY of money while growing tremendously. Microsoft. Dell. All these major companies did the same thing.
    Mar 22 01:15 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash Is King, Yet Everyone Hates It - And It's Driving Every Asset Class Too High [View article]
    Thanks King of Pain!
    Mar 21 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash Is King, Yet Everyone Hates It - And It's Driving Every Asset Class Too High [View article]
    Buyandhold,

    I think that's a great strategy. I actually did NOT do this entirely but I think that's one that I will be doing as long as the company's are still operating the same way I had hoped and earnings and revenues are increasing. No reason to sell a company just because the stock has sky-rocketed as long as it's a good company. The same as it going down, going up should be treated the same way. I wouldn't sell merely because the stock price is going down, so instead of timing the market, just hold good companies and sell the ones that are not good. Easier said than done, but very possible and smart.

    Thanks for the comment.
    Mar 21 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash Is King, Yet Everyone Hates It - And It's Driving Every Asset Class Too High [View article]
    I agree! Thanks for the comment. Many people can understand buffett and graham's philosophy but the discipline is what makes it hard to replicate.
    Mar 21 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
70 Comments
234 Likes