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  • The U.S. Housing Bubble Is Back [View article]
    Enigaman, Again, this is like comparing stock valuations today to stock valuations in 1999. Of course stocks look cheap today becuase prices were ridiculous in 1999. Houses are still expensive today after such a big drop because, relative to income, houses are still expensive.

    Also, bubbles occur WHEN it becomes a seller's market and not a buyer's market. That's exactly what happens...buyer demand outweighs seller supply.
    Mar 19, 2013. 03:32 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Housing Bubble Is Back [View article]
    I would agree to all of that. but you can get that info just by doing some research on the internet in the area. Or by scheduling to see houses and see what is going on.

    I am a real estate guy...I own 825 houses and apartments and the one thing I laugh at is when a broker/realtor tries to pitch me on a project. They just want to get paid. I don't blame them! But they can't blame me when I don't listen to them because of their bias.
    Mar 19, 2013. 10:45 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Housing Bubble Is Back [View article]
    If I wanted to understand the current housing market, the LAST person I would call is a realtor. They are not market savvy. They are quite the opposite. They make money off of higher prices...when is that understanding markets? The next thing you are going to tell me is that I should call a commission based stock broker to ask if I should buy stocks or sit on cash.
    Mar 19, 2013. 08:07 AM | 81 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Is Cheaper Than You Think [View article]
    Josh, you are right. Nobody knows. I don't think it will be 10 years though. The cycle on bubbles and overvalued stocks is usually not 10 years. How long is it? I don't know the exactly number, but these heightened levels don't stay around for long. The next bear market will help bring it back to reality.
    Mar 18, 2013. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Is Cheaper Than You Think [View article]
    Thanks Josh.

    What would you consider a reasonable cash flow multiple? And even if you say Amazon doesn't have any real competitors, as a stock, it has competition of reasonably valued companies. Even if the companies are not in the same arena, I would rather own Wal-Mart or Target than Amazon, as a stock.

    Thanks again!
    Mar 17, 2013. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Is Cheaper Than You Think [View article]
    Thanks for the post. What do companies in this market trade for on a multiple of operating cash flow? WMT is at 9.4, Target is at 8.2. I think looking at Amazon now versus historical is a very dangerous thing to do. That's like saying that stocks today are undervalued because they are only selling at 18 times earning when back in 1999, they were at 40 times earnings.

    Even if you are correct that the P/E isn't as relevant as operating cash flow multiple, you have to compare to others in the industry. To me, Walmart and Target are as close as you will get and those will be hard because they are brick and mortar. But shouldn't Amazon, since it is supposedly not brick and mortar, being that much better with their overall profit margin? Yet they aren't.

    Amazon is an overpriced company any way you look at it. Maybe one method shows it is less overpriced than another, but it is still very dangerous.
    Mar 17, 2013. 05:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB) workers love Mark Zuckerberg: the founder/CEO of the world's biggest social network has received a 99% approval rating from employees on Glassdoor; that's up from 2012's 85%. SAP co-CEOs Bill McDermott and Jim Hagemann, who have been trying to remake the software giant's culture, also come in at 99%. Other tech CEOs receiving high marks include EMC's Joe Tucci (96%), Qualcomm's (QCOM) Paul Jacobs (95%), Google's (GOOG) Larry Page (95%), and Citrix's (CTXS) Mark Templeton (95%). Tim Cook (AAPL) and Jeff Bezos (AMZN) both come in at 93%. [View news story]
    Great question Berylrb. That's what I want to see.

    Remember, popularity contests don't make a CEO good or bad.
    Mar 15, 2013. 02:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Amazon Is So Overvalued Why Does Google Want To Be Like It? [View article]
    Ha! Come on up! We do need more people up here. Since 2000, our NE Ohio population has gone up by 8,000! That's it.
    Mar 15, 2013. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Amazon Is So Overvalued Why Does Google Want To Be Like It? [View article]
    Also, ALL bubbles are formed on the logic of "if it's a good X, it should be worth more." At some point you draw the line. Everyone says real estate is about "location location location." I own 825 units in Ohio and I make WAY more return on them than my California/Nevada/Florida friends do on theirs. Because everyone thinks Ohio is going nowhere and since those other 3 states are growing like crazy, they must be better. Where has real estate values gone in those 3 since 1960? If you look at history, Ohio has outperformed them ALL since 1960 AND we have cash flow to boot! Those other 3 rarely have cash flow beacuse the prices get bid up like crazy.

    Amazon is the California of real estate. Everyone thinks that since everyone uses them and loves them, they should be worth a ton more than they are. More power to them. But the bubble WILL pop eventually. In the meantime, every time it goes up $10 or $20, I keep shorting. It can be risky, but I feel comfortable and I have a LONG horizon where I can wait out and wait for everyone to catch up on value.

    This is exactly what investment is.
    Mar 15, 2013. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Amazon Is So Overvalued Why Does Google Want To Be Like It? [View article]
    Trusting analysts has never proven to be the right way to go. These are the same guys who valued tech companies as "Buy" ratings when they had no revenue. I don't see this Amazon situation as being that far off of that .yes Amazon has huge revenues and they are increasing, but to value the stock at $315, or JP Morgan, I think, LOWERING their estimate to $300 is just ludicrous.

    I don't trust ANY analysts and even if they knew more than we did...if the info was that great, Amazon would have leaked it or someone would have said something about it to make the stock price go up already. The idea that people keep good news in is never the case. Analysts know very close to what we know and what they know that may be different shouldn't DRASTICALLY affect the level of the stock today. I know that this statement will get attacked btu one thing I have learned about "analysts" and "experts" is that they are VERY OFTEN wrong. They are not to be trusted. Simple basic math is how every business should be valued. If you can't do it that way, you are reaching and stretching for value, and you shouldn't be invested.
    Mar 15, 2013. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Amazon Is So Overvalued Why Does Google Want To Be Like It? [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I think you are confusing "good business" with "good values." I am shorting Amazon and I buy a ton from it. Just because a company is good doesn't mean that the company should be worth a crazy amount of money. Business is still based on making money and valued based on how much money it does make.

    Second, just because a company is overvalued would NOT be a reason that Google should not try to get into their business. Again, Berkshire Hathaway is a great and diversified company selling at $150,000 per share, but if it were selling for $1MM per share, would it make it a bad company? No, of course not. It would just make it a bad investment.

    The reason why I am an investor and not a speculator is that I want to invest in good companies at good prices, not great companies at bad prices.
    Mar 15, 2013. 09:48 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4-Year Stock Optimist Turns Negative - 4 Signs Market Is On Thin Ice [View article]
    Stuyoung,

    The ups and downs from day to day are irrelevant. As Graham says, "The stock market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long run."

    This is why only salesmen measure success from day to day and astute investors like Graham, Buffett, and Marks measure themselves over the long haul

    This is not meant as an attack, but I am quite sure you can't retire just worrying about today's returns. You have to think about buying great businesses at good values and watching them grow over the years. This is a very tough proposition at this market level.
    Mar 13, 2013. 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will This Secular Bear Market End Or Has It Ended Already? [View article]
    Yes, as Kerry said, post 2018, based on history, equities will be the place to be. However, the hard part will be that many people will disagree with that and that's exactly why it will be the place to be!

    I have to reiterate to my statement above in response to yours: It really doesn't matter what we are in if you are a value buyer, which I am.
    Mar 13, 2013. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will This Secular Bear Market End Or Has It Ended Already? [View article]
    I do agree with you Haighty! I always joke and tell people that it's irrelevant whether we are in a secular/cyclical bear/bull BUT for those who think that 7-10% returns per year are going to be expected, that's my reason for bringing this up. If you are willing to wait for good valuations, it doesn't matter what we are in. You are right. But this is for the average investor who is expecting a certain retirement.
    Mar 13, 2013. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will This Secular Bear Market End Or Has It Ended Already? [View article]
    Another article on Yahoo today. Definite enthusiasm and euphoria

    http://on.mktw.net/16p...
    Mar 12, 2013. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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