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The Critical Investor

 
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  • If You Own A Tesla Model S, Just Don't Dent It! [View article]
    @Gotlife: personally I owned one for 1.5 years, it broke down 4 times without letting it drop and using it carefully. When I returned it to the shop for repair, I immediately got a new one, so I used 4(!) Iphones in 1.5 years. 2 out of 3 times, there were others bringing in their Iphone, which broke down as well. Coincidence? The last time it broke down was the limit, I sold it to some recycling program and bought a Samsung Galaxy. Never had any problems ever since. Surprise: the Apple "fans" I knew "never" had those problems, most others did. Maybe it is a European thing, but to me it isn't a miracle to see others taking over Apple marketshare in smartphones.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Hold This Attractive Dividend Payer Through 2015 [View article]
    But they did.
    Dec 24, 2014. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Own A Tesla Model S, Just Don't Dent It! [View article]
    It's shaping up just like the Iphone: people just buy it as an overpriced icon, and there is no way to use it a long time as it just breaks down repeatedly before it reaches end of life in 2 years or less, and you have to buy a new one. I don't see these type of cars run for 10 years, drastically reducing value after warranties on drive train/battery expire as mentioned above. Just another prominent issue lacking sufficient (or any) consideration from management. Chaos disguised as a car factory.
    Dec 23, 2014. 11:13 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Heck Is Going On With Tasman Metals? [View article]
    Again another questionable "analysis" by this author, painfully tagged as "PRO". Everybody following the REE sector (except this author obviously) knows that the recent downfall of ALL REE companies is a direct result of crashing REE pricing. Tasman lost most on it as it gained the most in H1 2014, and stayed silent as it had no news to release. For highly speculative REE juniors you can get punished for that, this is how markets work. Working on a PFS without news doesn't automatically mean a standstill of course, as the author apparently fails to grasp here.

    As Ultralong questions rightfully, the author probably didn't even read the content of the Dec 9 press release, which indicated very clearly the PFS is due in Jan 2015. To me, Tasman management is just attempting to time a bottom in the REE markets, no use coming up with economic PFS modelling in a falling knife environment. True, things take longer than expected because of this, but not necessarily a bad thing here, on the contrary. REE prices seem to stabilize now so it seems to work out fine.

    To suggest Tasman was doing the mentioned drilling to expand resources, as the author wrongfully assumes here:
    "begging the question--How much value can adding more resources really generate?"
    couldn't have been farther from reality, as this quote from the relevant news release shows:
    "The collection of this large metallurgical sample places Tasman in a good position for the ongoing optimization of our process flowsheet during 2015" said Mark Saxon, Tasman's President and CEO."
    I am not sure what is difficult to understand on "ongoing optimization of our process flowsheet", it really indicates a painful lack of understanding of mining basics.

    And to even name TRER in one sentence with companies like Rare Element Resources, Northern and Tasman (I commented extensively on TRER elsewhere), should give all readers another indication of the very questionable level of analysis here, the term "analysis" used very loosely here.
    Dec 23, 2014. 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Write On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    This must be happening in poor countries with internet, like India, no doubt.
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tasman Metals: At Just $1, This Is The Only Rare Earth Stock That I Am Buying [View article]
    Read up on economic studies like a Pre Feasibility Study (PFS), and read up fast if you don't know those basics. It is actually dangerous to invest in very high risk, very speculative stocks like REE juniors, without knowing even the basics of investing in mining companies. Sounds more like gambling to me.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rubicon Minerals Sell-Off A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Goldman said $1050, usually what GS says does happen, but I would say the $1100-1130 range wouldn't be unrealistic for 2015 at all. Oil is low so costs can come down further now, supporting continued production at even lower price levels, without having too many mines to halt operations, which in turn could increase scarcity and higher prices at some point. Although there is no normal supply/demand for gold of course.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rubicon Minerals Sell-Off A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Gold stands at $1194/oz at the moment, and is projected to go lower by many experts. Using $1300/oz as a base case scenario doesn't make sense here. Even sell siders wouldn't try this.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite A Reminder Of The Risks, Senomyx Still Has Appealing Potential [View article]
    That's the correct description, thanks. Much to the annoyance of other contributors, who have to work their butts off to get things published for PRO, achieving much higher quality in the process. And me and other contributors are puzzled why this author singlehandedly gets to publish about 25% of ALL PRO articles, very often based on flawed assumptions (at least in the sectors I know something about) and virtually absent and arbitrary valuations, and why no more readers (and especially subscribers) notice it. Weird.
    Dec 21, 2014. 06:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: Hold This Attractive Dividend Payer Through 2015 [View article]
    It is already wellknown that WilHunter will probably finish the Hess job earlier, so dividend for Q4 2015 is in real danger if WilHunter doesn't have a follow up contract by then and it's warm stacked. I wouldn't rule out a lowering for Q3 2015 div either in anticipation.
    Dec 20, 2014. 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite A Reminder Of The Risks, Senomyx Still Has Appealing Potential [View article]
    I'm very puzzled, as usual with this author, how current fair values are achieved this time. $11 based on what, sell side reports? Amazing 25 fold revenues for 2019 are loosely mentioned as a mere straw to hold on to, but to me all numbers seem to be coming from thin air. Are PRO subscribers really paying $8200 per annum to read this "analysis"?
    Dec 20, 2014. 06:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tasman Metals: At Just $1, This Is The Only Rare Earth Stock That I Am Buying [View article]
    Do you know what a PFS is?
    Dec 20, 2014. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tasman Metals: At Just $1, This Is The Only Rare Earth Stock That I Am Buying [View article]
    REE pricing, as usual, dragging the entire sector down. Maybe TAS had some more downside potential as it went up in H1 as one of very few this year, is low on cash and the PFS takes some extra time. I believe management is trying to time a bottom in REE pricing, so they would probably delay economic modelling for the PFS as long as possible, just my 2 cents.
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Binary Decision Awaits: Astur Gold Could Soar Very Soon Or Could Go To Zero In 2015 [View article]
    The odds were against it, but a big disappointment nevertheless, as it is one of the most environmentally friendly mining projects worldwide. A nice claim will probably be coming their way as the verdict makes no sense, and investment in mining in Spain will come to a halt now, no doubt.
    Dec 19, 2014. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Romarco Minerals: Rising Opex Estimates Are Troubling, But Shares May Now Be Worth A Look [View article]
    Full equity funding isn't realistic (maybe the author could bother to ask management for other options available), but economics don't look good anymore and are very disappointing unfortunately:
    •Gold price increased from $950/oz to $1,250/oz.
    •After-tax NPV at a 5% discount rate increased from $191 million to $329 million.
    •After-tax IRR increased from 15.7% to 20.1%.
    •Capital costs are now projected to be $333 million

    > After tax IRR is just 20.1% at gold $1250/oz now, which is a big setback and barely enough for financiers in the current gold environment when stresstesting for further financing. Terms will be terrible, whatever comes out. Capex outscores NPV5 at gold $1200 which is a no go for a PM project, and the current marketcap outscores NPV5 as well. I think they already highgraded the deposit as much as possible, so I don't see much room for improvement.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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