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  • Major SLV Turning Point: It's All About Wealth Transference! [View article]
    Reference is made in the article to the COT commercial position in silver. You can do similar analysis in copper.

    Compare the net long commercial futures positions in copper today to the January - February 2009 and April - June 1012 time frames. Next, look at a chart for SCCO and focus on those time frames. What happened to the price of SCCO the last two times that commercial traders were as net long relatively as they are today?

    http://bit.ly/17n0qnC

    http://bit.ly/Zdawkw

    Got copper?
    Apr 8 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Week Of Major Currency Shifts Flips Me Bullish Australian And British Currencies [View article]
    Good stuff.........the Loonie is a buy as well, as long as we're trading.
    Apr 7 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Not Enough Luck With The Lumia [View article]
    "This article will determine......"

    You're too late. We've already more than doubled our money.

    Long NOK from 1.26.
    Apr 7 06:16 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Gold Bears Have The Upper Hand? [View article]
    Cycle me this and cycle me that. If you can't explain it, try to dazzle with...........

    Then add an interview with a precious metals salesman who apparently says that central banks "supply" physical gold to the gold market and that this must be suppressing the price. Never mind that at the same time the salesman says that the banks are now buying gold, which is the opposite of "supplying".

    No need to be clear or consistent when talking about gold, because after all, sentiment drives the price. The rest is just blather.
    Apr 7 05:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Prices Looking Lower Despite the Bulls [View article]
    @Abegaz....Sometimes the truth is difficult to comprehend, especially for those who are inclined to disregard facts in favor of a narrow minded bias. Repetition is often a good way to teach those who have rigidly preconceived opinions based upon myth, legend or fantasy. Try to stay focused, because both the article and our comment was about silver, not gold.

    Silver COT Data 101, Lesson 1

    So to repeat, yes, a heavily short speculative trader position in the silver futures is NOT BEARISH. Further, an historically, relatively small net short position among commercial traders is BULLISH. You do know the difference between the large and small specs and the commercials, yes?

    If you prefer your perma-bear, anti-precious metals opinions to the factual evidence, this may not do you any good. However, if you were inclined to look at the commercial net short positions in silver for the following time frames relative to the rest of the time, you might actually learn how to trade the metal and make some money.

    October – December 2008.........on average, commercial net short positions are less than 30,000 contracts. This is a relatively extreme position for the commercial traders. The silver price then advances 50%+ in 3 months; and then 4 fold in 2 years with NO DRAWDOWN.

    April 2009 ….....commercial net short positions total less than 30,000 contracts again....another relatively extreme position. Silver advances 4 fold in two years with NO DRAWDOWN.

    October 2011...........commercial net short positions shrink to less than 20,000 contracts. The silver price advances 15% in 30 days with NO DRAWDOWN.

    December 2011........commercial net short positions decline to less than 20,000 contracts and the price of silver advances 26% in 60 days with NO DRAWDOWN.

    June – July 2012.......commercial net short positions again decline to less than 20,000 contracts and the price of silver advances 21% in 60 days with NO DRAWDOWN.

    The charts don't lie; and the correlation between the silver COT data and price movement is there for anyone to observe.

    Here's a free tip: At just under 30,000 net short commercial contracts, the number of those contracts could certainly decline further in the following weeks and the price of silver could also decline a bit further. However, the probability is that it will not decline far.
    Apr 5 09:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Prices Looking Lower Despite the Bulls [View article]
    Speculative traders increasing their short positions in silver futures is not bearish. Speculative traders are consistently on the wrong end of the trade. Commercial silver traders have been consistently decreasing their short position for several months; and that is bullish within the context of assessing the next major move.

    http://bit.ly/V8abkq

    However, the commercial short position is not yet at historically low levels; and the turn could still take weeks or months. When/if the commercial short position contracts further and reaches a relatively extreme level, then it will be time to BUY silver.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 5 01:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan Is A Buy Despite Lower Copper Prices [View article]
    Recent COT activity among commercial traders in copper indicate that a bottom may be near. It may take weeks or months to develop but there it is.
    Apr 3 07:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Dips Below $8 - Uncertainty Is Key [View article]
    Make money while you wait. Shareholders can sell May 8 calls to cover for 80 cents. The annualized return is huge if the options expire; and if they don't, you sell out for 8.80. What could be so bad?
    Mar 19 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intuitive Surgical: The Perfect Time To Buy - A Doctor's Perspective [View article]
    Well written, logical article. However, the logic of medicine (or anything else) is not what moves markets.

    The stock peaked and has been making lower highs since May 2012 (nearly a full year). The stock lost more than 15% of its market cap in one month (July 2012).

    The stock is weakening against the general market and importantly, its sector peers. The stock has given four consecutive “sell” signals on a point and figure chart since February. A point and figure chart is a leading indicator of a stock's supply/demand picture. Supply is presently in control with this stock. Overall, the stock has broken its point and figure chart trend and the trend is presently down.

    Candlestick chart analysis reveals that this stock recently plummeted to trend line and Fibonacci support and held at 460.00. Intermediate chart support was broken on the decline to 460.00. It may well rebound here, but probably only to the 520.00 range, as it is not making new highs.

    There is a high probability that this stock could hit 375.00 and then 300.00. The reasons are irrelevant. Ask an Apple shareholder why their stellar company has lost 40% of its “value” since last fall. They can't tell you why either.

    Buy low, sell high. “Low” for this stock is at least 375.00, but we like it even better at 300.00.

    Thanks for the professional insights.
    Mar 18 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Ready To See Gold Heading To $4,990? [View article]
    So Sprott was an "investor" when he sold his silver unit trust shares in April 2011?

    Was he telling everyone else to sell their shares then?

    He's a salesman..... nothing more.
    Mar 17 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Nokia-Microsoft Partnership One Sided? [View article]
    “To be fair......” implies that our comments are unfair. The comments are not unfair to the author. He apparently hasn't read the agreements at all.

    The only relevance of an analysis of the risk disclosures in the “F-20 report” is whether or not they are legally adequate. The author does not discuss the adequacy of the disclosures at all; and it is clearly not his purpose to opine whether Nokia's risk disclosures are adequate for purposes of its regulatory mandate.

    Rather, the author implicitly states (without having read them) that the agreements are 'one sided” and further implies that NOK could have or should have gotten a better deal based upon language quoted from a disclosure statement whose purpose is not to provide analysis for the strategic efficacy, relative advantage or benefits resulting to Nokia (or Microsoft) as a result of the agreements.

    “We have to assume....” You don't have to assume anything. If you or the author want to understand the terms of Nokia's agreements with Microsoft, you should read the agreements. Reading this article easily demonstrates that the author's thesis is flawed.

    “…..however it is a fair criticism to have expected Nokia to negotiate some form of control over their entire mobile business future, or some commitments from MS....”

    “....expected Nokia to negotiate some form of control...”?

    Here's a little analogy for you to consider.........

    A man is walking in the desert and the only possession that he has is 10 pounds of gold. He has no water; and he needs 3 pounds of water to travel the distance that he needs in order to get to safety. The man knows that he needs this water to survive. Alas, there is no water in sight. A Cadillac Escalade drives up and the occupant offers the man exactly 3 pounds of water in return for 10 pounds of gold. Without hesitation the man says “you've got a deal”. The Escalade speeds off into the sunset 7 pounds heavier; and the man walks out of the desert to safety.

    Who made the better deal?
    Mar 10 08:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Nokia-Microsoft Partnership One Sided? [View article]
    "Sounds like...."?

    You are quoting "disclosure-speak" passages to create the impression that an agreement or agreements are one sided. The context in which these passages are made respond to the requirements of regulation authority in the disclosure of risk.

    If you want to analyze whether Nokia's management got a good deal then you should analyze the agreements themselves. However, you also have to assess the relative bargaining position of the companies.

    To suggest that Nokia "could have" or "might have" done better by merely quoting the cited language is not valid analysis.
    Mar 10 09:41 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Worth $265 [View article]
    We can't comment on the fundamental analysis because thankfully, we don't do it.

    Within the context of the article, the chart simply reinforces the fact that fundamentals do not move markets; and those who do not understand the role of sentiment will be giving their apple to the teacher.
    Mar 7 05:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Just Bought NovaGold [View article]
    Poor decision.

    No mention of this:

    http://bit.ly/VX55bm

    ....or this:

    http://bit.ly/YM8icH

    "......one might assume any shortage of cash would be easily provided." Really? By whom? Apparently not by the half owner of the project.

    No discussion of why this hole in the ground with a lot of gold that is too costly to pull out is better than other junior miners that are actually producing gold.

    If ABX has affirmatively announced that it has no plans to construct a mine at Donlin Creek, how do you suppose it will get constructed with ABX owning half of the project?

    Good luck with your long term "investment", but we'll pass.

    Disclosure: No positions and no plans to take positions.
    Mar 3 09:06 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In 2013: Remember 1977 [View article]
    "The young generation is waking up, beginning to realize its power..."

    ...... spoken like a true boomer.
    Mar 2 07:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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