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The Deliberate Trader  

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  • VirnetX Highly Likely To Get Apple Injunction [View article]
    Dan (did we get that right),

    Interesting article and intriguing hypothesis. Clearly, you are not opining on the investment value of this company; but you are engaged in a one off trade. Since you also implicitly acknowledge that this is something of a gamble, try reducing your risk and increasing your leverage with this idea.

    Mindful of the fact that the judge may render his opinion in 30 days and he may not, go out to June with this synthetic long spread.

    Buy the June 40 call and sell an equal number of June 29 puts for even money. If the decision is favorable, you can sell the calls as soon as the decision is made public and hold the puts until they expire. If the decision isn't favorable, the stock has to plunge below 29.00 before you lose a nickel.

    If we make a buck, it's sheer luck.
    Jan 26, 2013. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
    Jan 26, 2013. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banking Reform: Do We Need More Regulation Or Just Better Regulation? [View article]
    Good article.

    ....but to get "better" regulation, we need "better" politicians.

    When do you see that happening?
    Jan 26, 2013. 09:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
    Learn how to protect positions with options and don't worry about it.

    This sick dog can get well even without having the stock price rise much.
    Jan 26, 2013. 08:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
    " average entry price of 505 dollars. I need to decide whether to average down, or sit tight." Since you "definitely will not sell..........", here's a tip:

    AAPL is presently in no-man's land on the charts. Look for it to trade down into the 380.00 - 400.00 range. If it hits 400.00 soon (within 2 weeks) try selling April 390.00 puts to cover (potentially double) your shares for $15 - $20. This should lower your basis to 430.00 or so (if the shares are assigned to you). If the shares are not assigned, your basis is lowered to 485.00 or so.

    You can do even better than that if you sell 475.00 calls to cover on pops between 450.00 - 475.00. Be sure that the calls have only about 30-45 days to expire.

    Do you see why 475 calls and 390 puts are suggested?
    Jan 26, 2013. 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
    Good comment.... "no Jobs = no innovation....[is] silly".

    However, the idea expressed a few comments above that to the effect that hedging is "part of the problem" is ignorant.

    If you don't know how to protect positions in your "darling" stocks, you should simply buy mutual funds and hope for the best.

    ........successful investing isn't easy, but the big bad Wall Street Boogeyman won't hurt you if you know what you are doing.
    Jan 26, 2013. 07:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    Said this on 12/13/12 under a different AAPL "cheerleader" article:

    "As much as it may pain some to hear it, AAPL has broken trend on a point and figure chart, which is the best indicator of a stock's supply/demand picture. Supply is in control right now; and it looks like AAPL may see 460.00 before it sees 600.00. We trade 'what is'."

    It's not about margins, guidance or analyst forecasts. If that's what you think, we're here to take the other side of your trade.
    Jan 24, 2013. 08:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, I Want My Money Back! [View article]
    Aw shucks..........guess nobody liked this comment.....
    Jan 24, 2013. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Do You Think It Is Breaking Out? [View article]
    Fibonacci was a genius.....and he likely didn't even know it.

    What people fail to contemplate is that while there is no per se “magic” to the Fibonacci sequence, when numbers of people large enough to reach statistical significance are paying attention to the sequence (and they do), the “prophesy” becomes self fulfilling.

    Stated otherwise, this is “sentiment” in action................... sentiment is what actually moves markets.
    Jan 20, 2013. 09:14 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beat The Herd And Profit Before The Breakout [View instapost]
    Next up.........sell March 4.00 puts for .40 if you can, and .35 if you can't.

    Aggressive traders can sell March 5.00 puts for 1.10.

    TC is out performing the market and its peers in a favored sector (non-ferrous metals).
    Jan 14, 2013. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Container Leasing: 3 High Dividend Payers And 1 Earnings Retainer [View article]
    Good article; thanks for doing it.
    Jan 14, 2013. 06:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Long Bond Will Continue To Defy Gravity [View article]
    Good article and nice charts, but..........

    "In the meantime, your shorts of the iShares Barclay's 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) will continue to lose you money because fighting the Fed is a losing bet."

    This is just a cliche', no more indicative of cause and effect than your confessed ability to use a crystal ball.

    You don't want to fight the FED? OK, don't look now, but TLT is making lower highs and lower lows since July 2012. Using Fibonacci math, we have TLT in the 105 - 110 range by April.

    Why April? Because seasonally, long dated bonds decline through "tax season" before reversing after April 15th or so.

    Look at a 2 year chart for TLT and pay particular attention to the aftermath of April 2011 and April 2012.

    Long TBT...........until mid-April.
    Jan 12, 2013. 06:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold: A Shining Example Of A Lackluster Stock [View article]
    Great article; and a simple, but under appreciated perspective on protecting positions.

    Thanks for doing it.
    Jan 10, 2013. 05:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hecht, How To Make Money With Commodities [View article]
    Yes, but what does it tell you about "how to make money with commodities"/

    .....thought so.
    Jan 10, 2013. 04:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Asia Is Interested In Undervalued U.S. Junior Miners [View article]
    Well that's part of the point, isn't it? Why do you think that we are only willing to expose our capital short term?

    We “trade” speculation. We “invest” in profitable businesses. Neither of these companies are “investment” quality for different reasons; however, as we pointed out, TC is at least producing and selling a product.

    We discussed some comparatives between GMO and TC 18 months ago. (We were actually trading GMO then, in preference to TC.)

    As the author concedes, GMO is a one-trick pony. Part of our point is, the pony doesn't yet run. TC is a diversified molybdenum producer and resource developer. Its effort to diversify has recently cost it credibility in the marketplace. However, its noteworthy development project is on schedule to produce copper and gold from the second largest gold reserve in Canada before the end of the year.

    TC's management is its weak link by recent reputation. That is why we ONLY “trade” it at present. However, all may be forgiven once the Mt. Millligan project starts producing gold and copper. If you want to get a good overview of TC's fundamentals, start with these articles.

    As you are reading these two referenced articles (kudos to Vince Martin), keep in mind that GMO is barely beginning to embark upon the most costly (and therefore, risky) stage of the mining process (as illustrated and exemplified by TC's recent experience). Further, GMO is essentially partnering with the Chinese government, whose banks will allegedly “guarantee” funding for construction, and who will eventually be the buyer of the mine's production.

    Technically, we like both charts. However, we prefer TC for the reasons stated in our first comment. Once the fundamental picture becomes more established, we may become more interested in TC as an “investment”.
    Jan 6, 2013. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment