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The Deliberate Trader

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  • Silver: Will $28 Hold, Or Are We Going Down To $22? [View article]
    Blah blah blah.

    Congratulations to the author for accurately predicting that someone like you would descend upon this well written article with the standard irrelevant comment about the silver manipulation bogeyman.

    Real traders could care less.....
    Dec 23 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Review Of Nokia: Time To Bank Your Profits And Take An Early Vacation [View article]
    Successful traders and investors cut their losses but let profits run. Selling here is a mistake.

    Not only will we not trim our position here, we will be looking to add to it, as well as rake in income from covered calls once NOK hits real resistance just overhead between 4.50 - 5.00.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Long NOK from 1.76
    Dec 18 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Gold Miners With Recent Insider Buying [View article]
    We are short TC puts expiring this week; and we're due to get short (long) again.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 18 05:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    This is a thinly written op ed piece with only rudimentary fundamental analysis. Of course, there is no technical analysis because technically, NOK is presently one of the strongest stocks in both the tech and telecom sectors.

    Everyone has an opinion, but this author's opinion bears no relationship to what is presently happening in the market to this company's stock price.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Long NOK from 1.76.
    Dec 16 10:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple's Current Price Is Justified [View article]
    Just like "deserve's got nothing to do with it", neither does "justified" have anything to do with it.

    The probability is that AAPL is headed to 460.00; and a little patience should deliver some nice bargains. For those who don't have any, (patience, that is).............sell the AAPL March 480 put for 28.00 or better.

    If AAPL continues to slide for another quarter, you may end up owning it below chart support at 452.00 (480.00 - 28.00).

    Otherwise, you'll pocket the 28.00 and earn a 23% annualized return on your invested capital.

    Tough choice, isn't it?
    Dec 16 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, I Want My Money Back! [View article]
    The potential problem that we see with your trade is the directional bias. What if AAPL stock continues to decline?

    As much as it may pain some to hear it, AAPL has broken trend on a point and figure chart, which is the best indicator of a stock's supply/demand picture. Supply is in control right now; and it looks like AAPL may see 460.00 before it sees 600.00. We trade “what is”.

    So we'd reverse your trade and buy 1 June 525 put for 53.00 and sell 2 June 500 puts for 41.00 each. The credit is about 29.00; and while there may be some margin or additional capital outlay if the puts are totally secured with cash, the probability of a more favorable outcome is greater (the trend is your friend). Plus, if you already own 100 shares of AAPL you're protecting your investment from additional price erosion (albeit limited to the spread).

    Possible outcomes of the trade:

    1) AAPL goes up, all options expire worthless and you pocket 29.00, a near 6% return on your additional invested capital (nearly 12% annualized);

    2) AAPL trades between 525 and 500 and you pocket between 1.00 and 25.00 on the long put, and keep 29.00 of net short put premium (the return on additional invested capital is between 12% and 21% annualized);

    3) AAPL trades below 500.00 and you pocket 25.00 in long put premium, the 29,00 credit and you effectively own 100 (more) shares of AAPL at 446.00.

    Of course, if you already own 100 shares of AAPL stock at 705.00, your average price per share is reduced to 575.50 if you get what's behind door #3.

    With your trade there is no protection if the stock declines further. Using a put ratio spread, if the stock rallies from here, you pocket the 29.00 credit......and the stock rallies. That's the worst case scenario.....unless you think AAPL is headed toward zero.

    There are all kinds of ways to use options as a tool to polish your AAPL.
    Dec 13 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Stocks With Insider Sells Filed On October 17 To Consider [View article]
    AEGR...........a 10% owner has purchased 180,000 shares within the last month at an average price over 20.00 per share.

    What's your take on that?

    In mid-October we did this trade:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    We're flat now, but an insider/owner investing $3.6 million in the company AFTER a 50% increase in the stock price gets our attention.
    Dec 4 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Is The Lumia 920 Selling Well, Or Encountering Supply Issues? [View article]
    The "supply and demand" we care about most is the supply and demand for the stock. Presently, the stock is outperforming the general market and it is outperforming its peers.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    We are long from 1.76, having been assigned stock low and aggressively selling puts into continuing strength. This stock overshot the standard deviation on the downside; and it will overshoot expectations on the rebound.
    Dec 4 06:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In NOK By Trading Its Option Implied Volatility [View instapost]
    Thanks. That could work well too.
    Nov 30 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Take On The Nokia And Microsoft Partnership [View article]
    Trade the charts and stop playing with your phones. The comment above about there being nothing but opinion and innuendo in the article is on the money.

    Speaking of money, since we entered long positions in NOK three months ago, the investment is up 88%. We think that is plenty "credible".

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 29 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Make 30% On Your Money With This Nokia Trade [View article]
    Trade the chart. To heck with the spreads.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 29 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Safer Way To Invest In Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Excellent article.

    Glad to see some meaningful rebuttal to the SA "authors" who tout covered call writing with inadequate protection on dividend stocks in the name of maximizing "yield", as though you can do this with any old stock at any old strike price at any old time..

    The fact that many are now apparently attempting it means that it will likely not work for most; and of course, when no consideration is paid to the risk of being in the market, the vacuum-like sound you hear is the capital being sucked out of the income investor's account.

    The article contains valuable information to which truly prudent and risk averse investors should pay serious attention.
    Nov 27 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Percent Indicators: Major Indexes And Sectors [View article]
    We probably have different components in the sector indices we each follow, but the Telecom sector index that we follow (with 200 components, no ETF's) was up 1.579% finishing the week at 39.47%.

    It reversed down on a one box point and figure chart from a 9/21/12 high of 44.79 to 40.53 on 11/9/12. It then reached a low of 37.90 on 11/16/12, closing Friday at 39.47 without reversing up.

    VOX didn't quite reverse up on our point and figure chart at 70.43. It needs to hit 71.00 to reverse up to X's.
    Nov 25 07:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia And Research In Motion: Don't Step In Front Of These Freight Trains [View article]
    Very weak piece in Barron's this week about RIMM and especially, NOK. It's really little more than an editorial. Comments?

    Tax selling occurs every year. The fact is, both RIMM and NOK have broken out to the upside on important point and figure charts. Trade what is; and ignore the "noise".

    Long NOK stock, plus short puts from 1.76 net.

    http://bit.ly/XRxe6v
    Nov 25 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Bullish Signs For Uranium Stocks [View article]
    Request for clarification from the author......

    The last sentence of your first article says this: "Cameco is almost at its near yearly lows, this may be an ideal time to get in."

    Less than 2 weeks later you wrote this article, which characterizes CCJ as ".....the most significant of these stocks".

    Yet, in the 2 weeks between writing these articles you took long positions in two different uranium stocks.........but NOT Cameco.

    Please explain.........
    Nov 24 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
361 Comments
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