Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

The Energy Report  

View The Energy Report's Articles BY TICKER:
  • Macquarie's Brian Bagnell: Forget Peak Oil; Worry About Peak Demand
    Fri, Feb. 27 AAV, DTHRF, PEYUF 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil prices will remain volatile through H1/15.
    • Losing any additional rigs could mean we start seeing declines in late 2015.
    • A lot of untapped resources in the world still can be accessed through newer technology and improved efficiency.
    • There is a lot of gas out there, and only the most productive wells and efficient companies will continue to make a profit.
  • Hedge Against Short-Term Cycles With Lithium: Daniela Desormeaux
    Thu, Feb. 12 OROCF, PKX, TYHOF 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The lithium industry is growing quickly, with an annual growth rate of about 7–8%.
    • The most interesting development is lithium batteries for electric cars.
    • Lithium is going to become more important in energy storage devices.
  • Raymond James Analyst Talks About The Coming Uranium Upswing
    Fri, Feb. 6 DUK, URZ, UUUU Comment!

    Summary

    • If Russia chooses to cut back on uranium exports, that would have a very positive impact on prices.
    • We expect utilities to pick up buying activity with renewed annual budgets in the first part of 2015.
    • There's real potential for spot to rocket through the $40/lb level before the year is out.
  • Michael Waring Has Seen The Energy Downturn Movie Before, And He's Not Worried
    Fri, Jan. 30 CESDF, CNQ, EIA 2 Comments

    Summary

    • It wouldn't be logical to assume that Russia or the U.S. would voluntarily take production down, but it's going to be forced on them by lower prices.
    • In every previous cycle, prices 6–12 months after the bottom are up quite sharply.
    • Now is a moment where psychology has taken hold, and people have forgotten, overlooked or can't be bothered with the fundamentals.
  • Jason Wangler Throws A Lifeline To Oil And Gas Investors
    Fri, Jan. 16 CHK, ESTE, GPOR 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Having a great balance sheet right now is about as important as anything, given the fact that companies have to batten down the hatches and try to survive.
    • We think the oil price will start to correct itself and get back to a level that is rational from an economic perspective, whether in the U.S. or internationally.
    • For the most part, we believe the biggest driver of natural gas pricing is short term: weather.
  • Charting Uranium's Gain, Brent Cook Looks For Sweet Spots In The Athabasca Basin
    Thu, Jan. 15 FCUUF, UEC, URZ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The change in the Japanese government's view toward nuclear energy has been positive for the uranium sector.
    • If the long-term contract market volume reaches the pre-Fukushima levels of 2010, it will represent a doubling of demand and most certainly an increase in the uranium price.
    • The Athabasca Basin is a premier uranium producer, second only to Kazakhstan, and one of the best places to explore for additional deposits.
  • Revolutionary Oil Prospector Richard Masterson Shares Fracking Investment Opportunities Gov. Cuomo Can't Touch
    Thu, Jan. 8 APC, CWEI, CXO 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The U.S. won't be hurt as badly as Russia by the drop in oil prices.
    • We are perfecting the ability to get reserves out of the ground with more efficiently.
    • At current prices, you'll see a very marked decrease in drilling of some types of projects.
    • Everything changes after a disruption, but it makes the companies that survive quite strong.
  • Chris Berry Identifies Commodity Companies With The Disruptive Advantage
    Dec. 31, 2014 URZ Comment!

    Summary

    • Game-changing disruptive technologies or sustainable end-user agreements are what companies need to succeed.
    • If you think that all commodities are faring the same, you're going to miss out on a host of opportunities; not all commodities are in trouble.
    • Companies are employing unique technologies to reduce costs and compete in oligopolistic markets with high barriers to entry.
  • 8 Billion Reasons To Invest In Potash: Paradigm's Spencer Churchill
    Dec. 24, 2014 AGGZF, AGU, INPCF Comment!

    Summary

    • Population growth is a positive long-term driver for agriculture and fertilizer companies.
    • Our litmus test for picking companies is a combination of financial health, strong management, positive macro trends and valuation.
    • More people eating more and eating better should lift all boats in the space, but there are definitely times in the cycle when some will outperform others.
  • Chen Lin: Low Oil Prices Fuel Bonanza Increases In Ethanol Stocks
    Dec. 12, 2014 ANRGF, GPRE, PEIX 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The real losers in this price war are oil producers with much higher costs—countries such as Russia and Iran.
    • The Keystone XL pipeline would be a long-term benefit because it will be years before Phase 4 would go into operation.
    • By law, gasoline must contain at least 10% ethanol, and when shortages occur, the price of ethanol skyrockets.
  • Rob Chang Spins Yellowcake Into Gold And Gold Into Green
    Dec. 10, 2014 UEC, URZ, UUUU 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The uranium spot price is not actively speculated upon like gold or copper, nor can the general public get in on the action.
    • The movement in uranium spot pricing is generally based on transactions by entities that are well versed in the intricacies of that market.
    • As the uranium spot price moves higher, the dichotomy between uranium prices and equities will increase and we believe uranium equities will need to play catch up.
  • Micro-Cap E&Ps With Less-Risky Businesses: Casimir's Philip Juskowicz
    Dec. 10, 2014 BHI, COG, ENSV Comment!

    Summary

    • Micro-cap companies have been overlooked in the shale play revolution happening over the past couple of years.
    • Over the last three years or so, OPEC has become less relevant, less cohesive, and therefore less able to dictate world oil prices.
    • I expect further consolidation in the oilfield services sector, in an effort to compete with the new Halliburton.
  • Reactors Restart Uranium Mines: Thomas Drolet
    Dec. 4, 2014 CBI, CVX, DUK 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Current activity in the uranium spot market is a signal that the market is turning a corner.
    • There will be a slow and steady climb driven by major utilities coming in on buying cycles that meet their internal needs.
    • The problem all hard rock Athabasca juniors share is the time and money it takes to develop a producing mine.
  • Smart Oil Is Cheap Oil: Rudolf Hokanson
    Nov. 26, 2014 CLR, DWSN, ENSV Comment!

    Summary

    • Supply issues are driving the markets, as U.S. production grows and OPEC production finds new markets.
    • The key to success in the oil well servicing sector is reducing costs, not spending precious capital on unproven technologies.
    • Seismic technology is key to understanding where to drill, how to drill, and when to drill.
  • Marin Katusa: Winter Is Coming - How Investors Can Win In The 'Colder War'
    Nov. 21, 2014 BASFY, OGZPY, UEC 4 Comments

    Summary

    • One must understand global politics and the Colder War to be a successful investor in the energy sector.
    • Latin America has great potential for resources, both energy and metal.
    • Oil is coming to the point where it's becoming unloved, which is exactly when you want when you expose yourself to a sector.
  • Angelos Damaskos: Juniors That Insulate Investors From Today's Low Oil Prices
    Nov. 15, 2014 SALDF, OPHRY 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Oil shale wells decline 50–70% in their first year of production; companies need to keep on drilling to maintain production.
    • Oil prices at current levels mean that shale companies will find it much more difficult to finance their capital programs.
    • Relatively smaller companies not widely covered by the investment community can often provide exceptional value.
  • Uranium Spot Price Spikes On Good News...And It's Not All From Japan
    Nov. 13, 2014 URA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Uranium spot price received a major boost when approval to restart two nuclear reactors at the Sendai power plant in Japan was announced.
    • Trading is still thin, but the makeup of the bidders has changed a lot recently and sellers are getting less needy to sell.
    • Given utilities' need for supply, the market should prepare itself for a new wave of contracts in 2015.
  • Hunting On The Backbone For Valuable Master Limited Partnerships With Hinds Howard
    Nov. 7, 2014 AMLP, APC, EPB 5 Comments

    Summary

    • We expect MLP distribution growth rates to remain at historic levels for the next few years.
    • MLPs are compelling relative to other yield-based equities partly because MLPs focus on building out capacity, rather than growing through expensive acquisitions.
    • Dropdown MLPs really outperform, as they buy assets from the parent company over time.
  • Bob Moriarty Says $80 Oil Is The New Normal Minimum
    Nov. 7, 2014 POEFF, TRCH 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The U.S. will never have energy independence.
    • Saudi Arabia doesn't care about shale oil, because shale oil is not economic.
    • We are experiencing a natural correction, primarily due to slowdowns in Europe and China.
  • Colin Healey: Suppressed Uranium Price Shouldn't Keep Hedged Producers And Promising Explorers Down
    Nov. 5, 2014 CCJ, UEC, UUUU Comment!

    Summary

    • We expect a sustainable rally in the uranium spot market to coincide with progressive increases in the term price over the next 24 months.
    • Prices remain low as the market continues to be oversupplied, as much as 30% of current primary supply is thought to be uneconomic at current spot prices.
    • New reactor fuel loadings require about three times more uranium than the average annual burn of the same reactor, increasing demand when a fixed pipeline of new reactors comes on-line.
  • The Tao Of Investing In The Renewable Energy Market: Practice Patience, Not Panic, Says JinMing Liu
    Nov. 3, 2014 APD, CVA, DAR 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The risk associated with cleantech and renewable energy is higher than with more mature, bigger companies.
    • Lithium batteries have the most promising growth profile, for the very simple reason that lithium batteries offer very high energy density.
    • In this kind of environment, it's smart to invest in companies that are less volatile - in more defensive stocks.
  • Stansberry's Matt Badiali On The Companies That Could Thrive In A Cheap Oil And Gas World
    Oct. 31, 2014 ALJ, BHP, BTU 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Cheap energy trumps cheap labor any day.
    • The entire oil sector has just gone on sale, including the companies building the infrastructure.
    • Peak oil is no longer a problem, but peak storage is.
  • Credit Suisse Expert Targets MLPs That Could Increase Dividends And Yields In 2015
    Oct. 24, 2014 ENLC, ENLK, EPD 1 Comment

    Summary

    • MLPs are fee-based, so they have minimal direct commodity risk.
    • As long as oil prices stay above $80 a barrel, we think producers will continue to produce.
    • The preponderance of long-term contracts results in stable revenues for midstream MLPs.
    • Areas in West Texas with rising productivity will create demand for more assets.
  • Energy Master Limited Partnerships Go Mainstream: Baird's Ethan Bellamy
    Oct. 10, 2014 CELP, EPD, LGCY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • MLPs get the liquidity benefits of publically traded securities, coupled with the tax efficiencies and merits of a partnership.
    • It is sometimes misconstrued that MLPs are tax-free. In fact, they are not.
    • Oil price fragility could generate an outsize impact on upstream MLPs, and these partnerships are not all created equal.
  • Oil And Gas Investor Editor Leslie Haines: We Will Never Stop Importing Oil, But We May Start Exporting
    Oct. 3, 2014 CHK, COG, CXO Comment!

    Summary

    • We're never going to stop importing oil because supply diversity is prudent.
    • Both oil and natural gas production in this country are the highest in about 35 years.
    • There is an enormous demand for rig crews, frack crews and all the associated equipment and materials.
  • Kal Kotecha: Going Against The Grain In The Junior Resource Market
    Oct. 1, 2014 GLD, SLV, IAU Comment!

    Summary

    • Investment success doesn't come from buying good things, but rather from buying things well.
    • Junior mining companies should be judged by their ownership of mines, the quality of these mines and how management has executed similar projects in the past.
    • I don't think we will see double-digit growth for China any time soon, but I believe it can live up to its billing as the next economic super power.
  • Looking For Lithium Mega Deals With Thibaut Lepouttre
    Sep. 19, 2014 CCJ, OROCF, TM 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The demand for lithium is on a nice growth curve.
    • The good thing about the U.S. is that domestic production of phosphate covers all its consumption.
    • We expect a global uranium supply shock in 2015.
  • Where To Look For Yield During A Time Of Low Gas Prices: Elliott Gue
    Sep. 12, 2014 ALDW, BHI, CELP 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The biggest winners are going to be companies that consume gas, rather than companies that produce gas.
    • Due to the lack of pipeline capacity, there is a glut of crude oil in certain parts of the U.S.
    • I see a lot of value in new MLP listings.
  • Malcolm Gissen And Marshall Berol: Welcome To The Golden Era Of Oil And Gas
    Sep. 12, 2014 BXE, CNNEF, COP 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Even as fuel efficiency increases and technologies improve, oil will remain the No. 1 fuel type, with natural gas supplanting coal as No. 2.
    • Fracking is not a short-term solution, but a permanent one. It is here to stay.
    • Buyouts are an attractive way to go when all the metrics are there: properties, finances and good management teams.
  • Oil Field Services Surprise: Brandon Dobell On The Upstart That Could Compete With The Big 3
    Sep. 5, 2014 CJES, IMASF, NBR 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Most conventional basins are economical at current oil price levels.
    • The path of least resistance is for oil prices to move lower, but the lack of global spare capacity continues to influence overall commodity prices.
    • Well completions are driven more by science and less by horsepower, which tends to generate better initial production or better decline rates.
  • Ethan Park Expects To Harvest A Bumper Crop From Potash And Phosphate Juniors
    Aug. 28, 2014 CF, GQMLF, MOS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The phosphate supply-and-demand equation looks good for the juniors.
    • Phosphate firms without a captive rock supply are finding it difficult to secure supply.
    • The macroeconomic fundamentals for MOP are rather bleak, but fundamentals for SOP demand are robust and promising.
  • Canaccord's Luke Smith: Five Aussie Companies With Cash Flows, Low Costs And MOUs
    Aug. 27, 2014 ACH, NCMGY, OROCF 1 Comment

    Summary

    • One aspect about gold mining is that companies can react relatively quickly to lower prices, unlike iron ore and coal companies.
    • From the smaller gold miners to the larger, companies are making the changes necessary to maintain margins.
    • We have seen all-in costs drop between $100/oz and $300/oz for most of the companies we cover.
    • The decrease of Indonesian nickel has already been positive for Australian nickel producers and explorers and the nickel price on the London Metals Exchange.