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  • Philip Morris International: An Attractive Compounding Machine [View article]
    My CAGR for revenues is based off of estimating Gross Revenues and deducting excise taxes for each region. For non-OECD geographies my Excise Taxes as % of Gross Revenues are slowly going up so reflect those countries raising the rates over time.
    Sep 4, 2014. 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A breakdown of the Comcast-Time Warner Cable broadband combination [View news story]
    For what it's worth, 13% is 1300 bps not 13. (100 bps = 1%)

    Second, an HHI reading of 1769 is quite benign by comparison to other industries.

    The US carbonated soft drink market is dominated by KO, PEP and DPS and has a HHI above 3500. The US cigarette market post the RAI and LO deal would have an HHI also above 3500. The US shaving razors market, dominated by PG and ENR, has an HHI above 7000.

    While the argument about regional concentration is a valid one, the article avoids discussing other competitors to cable broadband. Many markets have telco's that offer DSL, which while not as fast as cable, is still a broadband connection.
    Aug 4, 2014. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SABMiller sells off stake in Tsogo Sun [View news story]
    I think so. SAB made a similar move in acquiring Foster's to try and rebuff a stalking ABI from making a bid. If they are looking for a similar global brand that also has African distribution assets, Diageo's Guinness fits that bill. And while Diageo has said that Guinness is needed in Africa to better distribute their core spirits business, at some point, the spirits business size will remove that requirement.
    Jul 18, 2014. 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris Shows Strength, Despite Recent Blows To The Industry [View article]
    PM was "down 2%" on going ex-dividend.

    IMT-LON, which generates most of its profit in the UK, was essentially unchanged.

    Doctors may want to ban sales but lawmakers know it would be a lost cause. Other failures from the outran ban of substances (aka US Prohibition) and the fact that the UK government receives more in taxes per pack than companies like Imperial receive in revenues suggest that a ban will be very difficult for lawmakers to pass.
    Jun 25, 2014. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Be Cautious And Step Back [View article]
    Hmm I would argue that the differences in dividend payment amounts are simply currency related and have nothing to do with the sustainability of future payments. Quarterly dividends are simply a US specific custom and European companies just pay out dividends different. It doesn't mean the money doesn't show up in your account.

    You can find both local dividend history and ADR dividend history on British American's website here:
    Apr 10, 2014. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Be Cautious And Step Back [View article]
    BATS-GB does have a standard dividend. Their policy is for a 65% payout ratio. They just happen to pay it as an annual and semi-annual dividend as many European companies do.

    TYO:2914 only has an ADR that trades OTC. Some investors can easily just use a broker to trade directly in shares of JT.
    Apr 10, 2014. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Be Cautious And Step Back [View article]
    they are available through Bloomberg or FactSet. Not too hard to find.
    Apr 9, 2014. 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Be Cautious And Step Back [View article]

    that took all of 30 seconds to find. If you are gonna post stuff on here I suggest some modest due diligence.
    Apr 9, 2014. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks I Expect To Get Halved In The Next 2 Years [View article]
    actually many of those CEOs did much better than 23% compounded and many of them did it for longer than 13 years. Very excellent returns, certainly not a Ponzi.
    Mar 20, 2014. 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Should You Buy This Ordinary Tobacco Manufacturer? [View article]
    I agree with Mktneutralhedger. You would only "tie" up capital in cash accounts. In Margin accounts, you can essentially use them as a low cost form of shorting a bond. In addition, when you short the put, you obtain the option premium which can then be invested in something else.

    Finally, as rates rise, and OTM puts have negative rho, the value of your put decreases so results in a gain since you are short.
    Jan 15, 2014. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DST Systems, Inc. declares $0.30 dividend [View news story]
    DST moved to quarterly dividend payments in 2013
    Jul 30, 2013. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Explaining The Debt Issue [View article]
    And I am saying its a complete non-issue. No investor should look at PM's leverage and deem it a concern. Zip, zilch.

    Also, disclosure, I own a bunch of PM.
    Jul 11, 2013. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Explaining The Debt Issue [View article]
    You are right on the money. I cannot believe this guy spent his time writing up this article about PM's debt "issues" when its issuing paper like 125 bps above treasuries and is levered not even 2x Net Debt/EBITDA. I had to have a little chuckle.

    All the risks that you point out are far more pressing to PM as compared to whats going on with its funding.
    Jul 11, 2013. 01:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Beverage Company: Stealth Value [View article]
    I'm not sure the current majority owner of the firm and CEO, Nick Caporella, will sell the firm. If you read up on his history in business, he is a very head strong person and does his own thing. Nick is the sole shareholder in IBS Partners, a firm that owns 33.3MM shares of FIZZ.
    May 13, 2013. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Beverage Company: Stealth Value [View article]
    Great write-up. Little small cap gem here. Solid returns and the CEO is a character. Really parades out the stars and stripes...

    I would add some things:

    CEO has control of the company through his 70%+ ownership of the common. While that means he probably wont screw the minority guys from a financial perspective, other issues could come up.

    They are skewed away from cola CSDs and cola has been losing share while other non cola CSDs like seltzer and fruit drinks have been growing in the US.

    Upside to margins but still capped since they own bottling assets that KO and PEP often divest.

    disclosure: long a bit of FIZZ
    May 10, 2013. 02:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment