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  • How Does Cisco Stack Up Against Its Competitors? [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words. Juniper did take market share away from CSCO in 2009 and 2010, but recent earnings reports from Juniper and others indicate that CSCO is fighting back in terms of pricing.
    Feb 3 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Attractively Priced Companies With Industry Leading Growth Rates And Margins [View article]
    Thank you for the kind words.
    Jan 31 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: 15% Upside Potential With Low Risk [View article]
    Thanks. Cash is not included in the FCFE calculation. FCFE basically is discounting the future cash flows to current levels. To get the complete valuation, the existing cash position is added.
    Jan 12 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Grossly Overvalued, eBay Grossly Undervalued [View article]
    The company is currently engaged is making several investments which it hopes will payoff in the long run. Near term, I am not so sure about the earnings...in fact most analysts are all over the map with 2012 EPS estimates ranging from a low of $0.4 to a high of $3.69. In the long run, I do feel that the investments will payoff. I love the company for what it has done to the retail space, but I hate the stock for the high valuation. If the stock was trading at a reasonable multiple (say 30-35), I would have made it one of my core holdings.
    Jan 12 02:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 John Paulson Picks With 20% Upside [View article]
    Paulson might be known for his subprime trades, but he still makes long trades as well.

    Moreover, the stocks listed above are his ideas with my price targets, if you do not agree with his ideas and if you think that my targets are unreasonable, I would recommend that you not buy any of the stocks I have discussed in the article.
    Jan 12 02:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 John Paulson Picks With 20% Upside [View article]
    Thats the average analyst eps estimate. They expect a range of $2.9 to $3.2
    Jan 12 02:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • George Soros's Tech Picks [View article]
    benito9, the P/E estimates are generally preliminary estimates. As such they are derived using an analysis of company fundamentals like historical margins and growth rates. I also look at the peer P/E ratios to come up with the estimate.

    Again, I would like to stress that these numbers are preliminary. I use them to select stocks that are worth my time and effort for a detailed analysis.
    Jan 4 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Headed Lower In Medium To Long-Term [View article]
    Wouldn't that expectation imply that the BOD would have to be doing its job? I do not think you are being reasonable :).
    Dec 23 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Headed Lower In Medium To Long-Term [View article]
    I agree with you that the stock should never have traded at $300. It was a bubble and Mr. Hastings burst it. That is why I blame him for the loss.
    Dec 23 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Downside Risk: $290 Just Based on Cash [View article]
    First of all, you added long term investments to your cash balance to come up with the cash multiples. Cash and eqs are not the same as long term investments in my book.

    Additionally, what happens if Apple acquires RIMM? since the cash has fallen by 15 billion (assuming for the sake of arguement that RIMM sells for 15 billion), Apple would have approximately 15 billion left + 25 billion in long term investments i.e. $43-44 a share. So, does that mean the stock can now fall to 180?

    This analysis is meaningless to me. I would rather look at historical multiples to come up with my downside risk.
    Jun 20 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Calculated Bet on Cisco's Management [View article]
    Thanks for reading. My growth rate assumption translates into an average of 6.8% over the next decade. As I said in the article, I have modeled an initial 9% growth rate declining from year 4 through year 10 to 3%. I agree that a 9% growth rate is very aggressive for modeling purposes.
    Apr 13 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Stock Buybacks Not As Rosy As They Seem [View article]
    Aagold,

    Thank you for the kind words. My understanding of SBC is pretty much along similar lines. I just reread what I posted previously and I realize that it was very vague.

    The way I look at it, from practical considerations, if i normalize the SBC expense for the last 3-4 years, it should provide me with a good estimate of the actual SBC given by the company (as a % of net income). I know that it is not perfect, but I think that it is a good indicator of the actual SBC. Of course, this measure would not be able to account for the SBC from years prior to 2006. But in the grand scheme of things, I guess we should be alright.
    Apr 13 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Calculated Bet on Cisco's Management [View article]
    AAgold,

    I did consider the net cash (cash & equivalents - debt) as part of my analysis. The dcf based fair value includes that number.
    Apr 13 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Stock Buybacks Not As Rosy As They Seem [View article]
    Hi Brad,

    Let me assure you that it was never my intention to make inaccurate statements. I apologize if you felt that I was willfully making erroneous statements.

    With that said, based on my limited knowledge of how companies deal with stock based compensation, looking at cash flow statements of the last three years, the company paid a total of $3.86 billion in SBC. During the same time period, company repurchased a total of $21.8 billion worth of stock. The net reduction though was only worth $10.1 billion. Thus, looking at the SBC and the total shares repurchased, SBC doesnt seem to be the critical component accounting for only 18% of the total stock buyback.

    Now, I am an amateur, especially when it comes to stock based compensation and its accounting methodologies, and you are clearly an expert. Please tell me what am I missing which makes my analysis and my statements inaccurate? I will appreciate your feedback in this matter.

    Thanks,
    Nadeem
    Apr 12 12:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Stocks Snapped Up by Insiders Ahead of Earnings This Week [View article]
    HOFT - 500 shares. wow, thats a huge pickup. At todays closing, thats 6500 bucks.
    Apr 11 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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