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The Frugal Norwegian  

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  • What Attracted Warren Buffett To IBM? [View article]
    What tech startups did Buffett invest in the 1950s? This was back in his early days of buying "cigarette butt" companies.
    Jun 24, 2014. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci's Multikine - Potential 21st Century Superdrug [View article]
    holborn - You obviously have a long history with the company. I have been fortunate in that I have been with the company for a little more than 3 months, hence the reason for my optimism. Had I invested last year - I would be very frustrated. However, it is important to note that the company is closer to having a successful Phase 3 than at anytime in history. Good luck with your investing.
    Apr 10, 2014. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci's Multikine - Potential 21st Century Superdrug [View article]
    tadoboy - I appreciate your thoughtful response. It is one of the better ones I have seen.

    Regarding Phase II - I am impressed because they showed that they had a good response in the tumors. While the science is a part of how the results are obtained, one should not dismiss the results just because the science is not clearly understood.

    Regarding the estimated Phase III end date of Dec 2017 on clinicaltrials.gov. I have to admit that I was skeptical about this date because, given all of the previous delays, it seemed too soon. I suspected the clinicaltrial.gov site had outdated information, hence the reason for my phone call to the company to verify the estimated end date. Granted that date may be pushed back but with enrollment clearly ramping up, maybe they can hit that date?

    Regarding not having credible locations for the trials - Cel-Sci has partnered with 21st Century Oncology, the largest cancer treatment organization in the US. I think they are credible and speaks to Cel-Sci's commitment to finishing Phase III.

    I am aware that drug protocols are not necessarily done with the FDAs blessing. I also know that even with a positive Phase III, the FDA can still reject the drug. However, here is a link that shows the steps Cel-Sci has taken to reduce the risk of drug failure, from a trial perspective.
    http://bit.ly/1hx5ZRS
    Despite I gave you a link the the company's website, I am certain you can corroborate the derisking factors Cel-Sci has taken on SG.
    Apr 7, 2014. 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci Sees Rapid Enrollment For Phase III Head And Neck Cancer Trial [View article]
    The reason Cel-Sci is a bargain is because many of Cel-Sci's peers have a market cap of around 500M. Many of these companies don't even have a drug in Phase 3 testing. Since Cel-Sci is in Phase 3 and have passed 2 safety evaluations, their chances of having an approved drug are greater than 60%. See http://bit.ly/1gRp8CA

    To me, it makes no sense that their market cap is 1/5th of these other companies who still have to pass their Phase II tests. The link above outlines that Phase II results in the most drug failures.

    I would not necessarily say that dilution is "a certainty". Here is why. They have enough cash to last them through this year but they also have an arbitration case filed against inVentiv. inVentiv's lack of enrollment caused serous issues and delays for Cel-Sci. Cel-Sci is claiming 50M in damages. I would hope that Cel-Sci is awarded around 20-25M - this is just a guess. If they are awarded this much, they will have enough for around 2 years of operation. Plus there is the chance of the trail ending early, but this is a minute possibility.
    Apr 3, 2014. 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci Sees Rapid Enrollment For Phase III Head And Neck Cancer Trial [View article]
    panchosfc...I recommend reading the following article to determine if CVM is a bargain:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Good luck with your investing.
    Apr 2, 2014. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci Sees Rapid Enrollment For Phase III Head And Neck Cancer Trial [View article]
    That is an easy one. CVM - here is why:
    CVM (Cel-Sci) is approximately half-way through their Phase III trial, had tremendous success with their Phase II trial, have a non-toxic cancer drug, will most likely have cash coming to them from their arbitration case with inVentiv, have a significant partnership with TEVA (who is putting their own money into Multikine research), and are working with the Navy on eliminating the HPV virus. In addition, Cel-Sci is addressing several other, hard to treat, indications, which are outlined here http://bit.ly/1k031gt

    Plus CVM is significantly undervalued. Their market cap should be in the range of 400M-700M but they are currently less than 95M. CVM is an incredible bargain right now.
    Apr 2, 2014. 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci Sees Rapid Enrollment For Phase III Head And Neck Cancer Trial [View article]
    Great Article Sharon!!!
    Apr 2, 2014. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind The Scenes With Proactive, Inovio And Unilife [View article]
    You will be laughing all the way to the bank if CYTR gets new management.
    Mar 27, 2014. 02:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci's Multikine - Potential 21st Century Superdrug [View article]
    Adam F did write a small blurb about Cel-Sci last Oct. Here it is. http://bit.ly/1fbpyPJ

    His main beef with Cel-Sci has been the very low Phase III enrollment rate, which the cause of was explained in my article, and is not necessarily the fault of Cel-Sci. AF other issue was the desperate financial situation of Cel-Sci, which was true. However, the have raised millions in new offerings and warrants and should be good for a while. Plus, they should be receiving a cash payment from inVentiv for possible breach of contract related to enrollment.

    Piem18848 - you talk about doing DD, but the comments you make show that you have not even read my artifcle thoroughly, nor have you clicked on the plethora of links I provided as showing my sources. For those (like you) who really want to know the facts, the information is one click away.
    Mar 24, 2014. 03:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci's Multikine - Potential 21st Century Superdrug [View article]
    Piem18848 - please tell me what other companies are going after head and neck cancer. I want to include some of that info in my research. Thanks.
    Mar 21, 2014. 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci's Multikine - Potential 21st Century Superdrug [View article]
    I read your post 3 times and am still confused. Can you please elaborate? I want good debate about cel-sci and your emotional comment isn't helping.
    Mar 21, 2014. 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci's Multikine - Potential 21st Century Superdrug [View article]
    A press release by the company states that registration of all 880 is expected to be completed by the end of 2015. See http://bit.ly/1getZP0

    I would have to believe that some data has already being collected. Teva has been a partner with Cel-Sci and for 2 years before FDA approval to start Phase III, which was Dec 2010. Teva might have started enrolling patients in 2011 in Israel, which would put some of those patients very close to the 3 year mark for followup evaluation.
    Mar 20, 2014. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci's Multikine - Potential 21st Century Superdrug [View article]
    B_Banzai - you are correct that I do expect facts to be presented as credible arguments against Cel-Sci or their drug. You are also correct that I also use hyperbole. I hope I didn't use it in isolation. I did my best to only use hyperbole at the conclusion of many presented facts. Hyperbole is often times the only thing that really sticks with readers, but only after making a solid argument first.

    Regarding waiting a long time for results. I still remember a quote (more hyperbole) Warren Buffett said during the 2008-2009 stock market crash and eventual recovery. He said "If you wait for the robins, spring will be over."

    That applies here with Cel-Sci. If you are looking to invest, the best time to do it is before everyone else thinks it is a good time to invest. But each to our own. I wish you the best in your investing career.
    Mar 15, 2014. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci's Multikine - Potential 21st Century Superdrug [View article]
    17147502 - I will answer your questions in the order you asked them.

    1) Please re-read the article. I outline the reasoning for the low enrollment rate.

    2) The point of mentioning the large numbers of employees (even though that is a small detail) is to support my argument that TEVA is a well respected large pharmaceutical company and knows how to do due diligence. You don't get that large by doing a lot of things wrong. Yes, you make mistakes (as all large pharma does), but your winners out number your losers. Teva partnered with Cel-Sci and they have the staff to really understand the science behind Multikine.

    3) I don't know why they don't have a contract with an outside company to manufacture their cold biologic. It could be because first priority is to make Multikine and ensure all dosages are "fresh".

    4) You didn't have a 4th question, but your comment about a new offering should have had a question mark behind it. Cel-Sci has the cash to make it through most of the year, plus they most likely will be getting cash from inVentiv. So I don't think they will be doing an offering soon.
    Mar 15, 2014. 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cel-Sci's Multikine - Potential 21st Century Superdrug [View article]
    Smario - I had also read something previously about interleukines being used since the 90s and it had me wondering about how Multikine was different. I will look into this and see if it warrants a possible writeup.

    Regarding your comment about Teva buying CVM, I had also pondered this for a while. I am not an expert in the area but I will venture a guess as to why large Pharma doesn't buy small biotechs.

    The reason, I believe, is that large pharma is not in the business of speculating on businesses. Shareholders invest in TEVA for the stable growth and dividends. Teva, or any large pharma, would rather pay billions for a company that has a proven drug than tens of millions on a company still in Phase III. Shareholders would be howling if TEVA started purchasing companies in Phase II or Phase III development without a proven FDA drug.

    The other thing is that Cel-Sci is not going to be selling out to anyone. They have fought too hard just to take a paycheck from a large company. They want to see the fruits of their labor, and after learning about Cel-Sci's history, they have had some MAJOR challenges and have made it though them all. Outlining everything that management has been through in the past 14 years is worth a separate write-up.
    Mar 14, 2014. 03:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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