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  • Still No Sign Of A Double-Dip Recession [View article]
    How could ECRI have goofed a premature recovery call in 2002 when the recovery started in 2001? ECRI doesn't forecast market tops and bottoms they forecast business cycles.
    Oct 2, 2011. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still No Sign Of A Double-Dip Recession [View article]
    Tom, ECRI does not claim to have a perfect track record of predicting recessions before the start, they have a perfect track record of not sounding false alarms in between and getting the recession calls right. They have been criticized for being late to the party in 2008 and as Mish points out, rightly so.

    I agree with Mish and other commenter's here that if anything ECRI was likely late, John Hussman called it in early in August.
    Oct 2, 2011. 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Still No Sign Of A Double-Dip Recession [View article]
    E Nuff Sed, ECRI did not miss the great recession, they were about 4 months late with their official call, if you call that a miss, then OK but the majority of economists at that time did not see recession coming. Interestingly the S&P500 was off about 16% from its peak when ECRI made the call in 2008, almost the exact same decline from the April 29th close to today's levels.
    Oct 2, 2011. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Go By ECRI, Recession Is A Done Deal [View article]
    Looks like you've nailed it Boomer. Corporate Profits will also take a dive.
    Oct 2, 2011. 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Still No Sign Of A Double-Dip Recession [View article]
    Excellent comment Brian, Recession certainly hasn't been the consensus view, as of late August, 79% of money managers in the US were not expecting recession.
    Oct 1, 2011. 07:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Go By ECRI, Recession Is A Done Deal [View article]
    Fred, Q3 GDP data won't decide anything, Achuthan stated he didn't know when the recession would start (see the interview on tech ticker), he said it may have started already or may not start until Q4
    Oct 1, 2011. 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Go By ECRI, Recession Is A Done Deal [View article]
    I don't know why that is River, try the original article on my site for the clip.
    Oct 1, 2011. 06:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Go By ECRI, Recession Is A Done Deal [View article]
    Wolverine you are mistaken, ECRI did not predict a recession last year, in fact they did not buy into the double dip talk.
    Oct 1, 2011. 06:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Go By ECRI, Recession Is A Done Deal [View article]
    Sharkieboy, what type of business do you own if you don't mind me asking?
    Oct 1, 2011. 05:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Go By ECRI, Recession Is A Done Deal [View article]
    Dave, I'm talking about the US but your right to be concerned about the rest of the globe.
    Oct 1, 2011. 05:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still No Sign Of A Double-Dip Recession [View article]
    Thanks for that qualification TFA but the message is still the same, whether the recession has already started or will start in October or November, you don't want to be long this market.
    Sep 30, 2011. 08:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still No Sign Of A Double-Dip Recession [View article]
    Actually, I would say that your assertion that

    "another recession at this juncture would fly in the face of a lot of historical evidence to the contrary."

    itself flies in the face of historical evidence. You need to be careful about the historical data sets you look at. In a post credit crisis world the fed funds rate is not going to tell you much, if you want to look at historical precedents for central bank interest rate policy post credit crisis take a look at Japan, loose monetary conditions did not prevent subsequent recessions. Better still, get a copy of Reinhart and Rogoff's "This time is different" for a more thorough analysis.

    Considerable tightening of the fed funds rate by itself is not a perfect indicator, witness the sharp tightening in the early to mid 90's. In fact there is no single indicator that gives perfect recession signals, that's why you need to look at an ensemble of indicators. John Hussman does exactly that and has been saying for at least a month that there currently exists a "syndrome of conditions" that have ONLY and ALWAYS been observed just to prior to or during recessions.

    Today the ECRI said unequivocally the US is in recession, they have never sounded a false alarm in more than 20 years. I called it in August:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I was probably a little early. If your portfolio can't endure a further drop of 30% or more in the major indices over the coming 6 - 12 months you need to make a move today or on the next rally if you are feeling lucky.
    Sep 30, 2011. 07:32 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Payroll Growth Will Likely Deteriorate Through Year's End [View article]
    Yep, once again Obama is late to the party, the time to implement some type of jobs initiative was 9 - 12 months ago, nothing announced now will have any effect on the current downturn.
    Sep 1, 2011. 07:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE2 Didn't Work, And Neither Would QE3 [View article]
    Skiman,

    Your comments sound suspiciously political in nature. Concerns over spending may have been a source of uncertainty but the fact is the equity market was expensive on a historical basis and the economy has been close to stall speed in 1H2011, that is reason enough to send the equity markets lower. Whoever is in the Whitehouse is irrelevant, with the possible exception of Ron Paul.
    Aug 25, 2011. 02:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Market Expectations [View article]
    doglife,

    The table analyzes cyclical bear markets within secular bear markets, the 1929 crash was a cyclical bear market in a secular bull market.
    Aug 21, 2011. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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