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  • No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here [View article]
    Geoff, I have no strong views about where the market will bottom. Jeremy Grantham recently suggested that fair value for the S&P500 is around 950, I would agree with that but if we are in a new cyclical bear market (which I believe we are) I would expect that level to be breached on the downside. Of course all bets are off in the short term if a new round of QE kicks off.
    Aug 20, 2011. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here [View article]

    I believe the Fed's QE adventures encouraged commodity hoarding affecting global supplies which affect the poor in developing countries most. I don't have the statistical analysis to back that up, just an observation of anecdotal evidence.

    "Ineffective" in regard to interest rate cuts is in reference to the effects on the stock market. If you recall during 2008, the stock market would rally every time the Fed cut interest rates but those rallies were subsequently wiped out and each subsequent rate cut produced a rally of shorter duration as investors realized rate cuts were not the answer.

    Similarly an announcement of QE3 is likely to produce a rally but of shorter duration as investors have seen this movie before.

    Neither of these statements are political, the fact that you think that they are says more about you and your propensity to project your own views onto them. I'm not an American and therefore don't vote, I have no affection for either party, the dearth of leadership on both sides of the aisle is staggering.
    Aug 20, 2011. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here [View article]
    It's a good point Seth. The evidence is on QE and it has been a consummate failure except for a transient boost in asset markets. Note that the stock market gains under QE2 how now been completely wiped out while creating higher commodity prices that hurt the poor at a time when they can least afford it.

    Like the realization that successive Interest rate cuts by the Fed during 2008 were ineffective, similarly investors are waking up to notion that QE is also ineffective.
    Aug 19, 2011. 06:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here [View article]
    Actually dieuwer it's over-rated, mainstream economists get paid good money whether they are right or wrong, I don't get paid well even if I'm right.
    Aug 19, 2011. 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Market Expectations [View article]

    I'm currently not short anything, my call for a bear market is based on the economic and market evidence that has been accumulating in recent months. In contrast, your opinion is based on..... well.... nothing.
    Aug 15, 2011. 07:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Market Expectations [View article]
    On the contrary js, a number of economic indicators taken together suggest recession is just around the corner or has already arrived. Rather than me regurgitate the details, you might like to read John Hussman's latest missive on the topic: Recession Warning, and the Proper Policy Response
    Furthermore earnings just reported is predictive of precisely nothing. It is akin to looking in the rear visions mirror for direction on howw to go forward. Analysts always miss turning points in the economic cycle and they are slow to revise forecasts. In late 2007 they were forecasting $105 for the S&P500, a little more than a year later they came in at $49.50.
    Aug 10, 2011. 11:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst Earnings Estimates Won't Save the Stock Market [View article]
    Interesting that they always talk about the assets (cash) and fail to mention the liability (borrowings). John Hussman had a great article on this last year called: "Corporate "Cash" - Cheering the Asset and Ignoring the Liability"
    Aug 9, 2011. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Payroll Growth Keeps Unemployment in Check [View article]
    Thanks for you comment Joe, I was wondering if you could show any supporting evidence that the BLS numbers are fabricated.
    Apr 3, 2011. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment Duration: Not as Bad as it Seems [View article]

    One thing you might want to consider is that I did not choose the title of this article. If you go to my website you'll see the title I used "A Look at Employment Duration". As part of the deal of being an author on this site, Seeking Alpha have the right to change the title of posts as they fit.

    Furthermore, at least twice in the article I say that long term unemployment is a serious problem that should not be down played.
    Mar 6, 2011. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The February Employment Report Was Good News [View article]

    Your number of 500k additional jobs to absorb new entrants is ludicrous. It's closer to 125 -150k a month.You only need to look at this months numbers in the household survey to confirm this.
    Mar 6, 2011. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The February Employment Report Was Good News [View article]
    Can't argue that February's report was good news Bob, but you might want to acknowledge that a significant portion of the 0.9 decrease in the unemployment rate in recent months has been due to a fall in the participation rate.
    Mar 6, 2011. 02:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • December Employment Report: A Tale of Two Surveys [View article]
    The drop in the unemployment rate cannot be solely attributed to the fall in the participation rate. Also the participation rate actually rose from December 09 when it was at 64.6% through to April 10 hitting 65.2%.

    The old relationship holds that more workers will come back to the workforce once the labor market improves, that hasn't been the case in the second half of 2010. Maybe it will eventually, time will tell.

    That's an interesting prediction, I hope you come back in 4-5 years to check the accuracy of your statement.
    Jan 9, 2011. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Rising Rates Really Signal Strong Growth and Rising Equity Prices? [View article]
    The Contrary Investor is a great read, the first thing I read at the beginning of each month, the guys over there are very rigorous in their analysis.

    The Fed has succeeded at juicing equity prices but we know where that has historically led. Bubbles can go on longer than most think but they never end well and this will be no exception.
    Jan 3, 2011. 02:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2010 Market Scorecard and a Look Ahead [View article]
    The short answer is, I don't know, nobody does. As usual the easy part is identifying the bubble, the hard part is the timing of the burst.
    Jan 2, 2011. 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian Housing Starts Fall the Most Since December 2008 [View article]
    It appears I worded the article poorly. Of course rainfall is easily verifiable, it's effect on housing starts is not.
    Dec 14, 2010. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment