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  • 'Less Worse' Payroll Decline Does Not Equal 'Good' [View article]

    I suggest you check your calendar, we are currently in Q309, the latest employment report is from August showing an unemployment rate of 9.7%, the more adverse case suggested 9.3% in Q3 and remember we have to get yet another employment report for September to round out Q3.

    My assertion that the bank stress tests were farcical is that the assumptions, not just on unemployment, but loss rates on a variety of asset classes, have already been exceeded by a number of institutions. The test itself is not a bad one, it just needs to be run again with different assumptions, as Elizabeth Warren herself has advocated.

    On Sep 06 01:52 PM Crocodilian wrote:

    > Author writes:
    > "The unemployment rate reversed the anomaly of last month reaching
    > a 26 year high of 9.7% and remains ahead of the most adverse case
    > represented by the farcical bank stress tests."
    > ----------------------...
    > The unemployment rate in the most adverse scenario in the bank stress
    > tests for Q4 2009 is %9.7.
    > Unemployment rate reported: %9.7
    > I fail to see what is "farcical" about that.
    > Given that we are now _in_ Q4 2009,
    Sep 6, 2009. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Bernanke Should Not Be Reappointed [View article]
    Actually Tincho I agree with pretty much everything you said. I would prefer central banks were dissolved as well. However, you and I know that is not going to happen before January. Hence the idiotic article. If we are going to have central banks, lets have someone in charge who at least understands risk.

    On Aug 12 09:28 AM Tincho Sibileau wrote:

    > This article is idiocy. Central bankers, central banks, cannot avoid
    > bubbles. It is exactly what they are for: to create them. They do
    > not need to explicitly do so, for it is intrinsic in the mechanisms
    > of fiat money. WHY? Because monetary expansions are not neutral.
    > What do I mean? I mean that most of you believe in the exchange equation:
    > MV = PY, which assumes a neutral price level. The problem of inflation
    > is not that prices rise, but that they do not all rise simultaneously:
    > For instance, in this crisis, the transmission was: 1st higher mortgages,
    > 2nd higher commodities, 3rd higher equities, 4th higher corp bonds
    > and if this continues, higher capital expenditures, consumption AND
    > ONLY THEN consumer prices and wages. Inflation is a process, not
    > a mere stupid CPI reading, as we are taught at university. In each
    > step, it creates a bubble: First, in mortgages, then in commodities,
    > equities, treasuries etc. So, blaming the messenger is idiotic at
    > least. You don't want bubbles? Dissolve central banking altogether
    > worldwide!
    Aug 12, 2009. 09:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report: Waiting for Further Confirmation of Recession's End [View article]

    People like me do believe the recession is coming to an end and may have already ended in July or August but am not optimistic at all about a sustainable recovery. I think the dreaded double-dip or 'W' shaped recession is a real possibility in 2010-11

    On Aug 09 01:37 PM Schweizer wrote:

    > A lot of effort is being made via massive unproduction one-time goverment
    > borrowing and spending to get the GDP slightly positive for a quarter
    > or two so people like you can call the recession over.
    > The fact is that weekly railfax reports show that loaded rail units
    > is still flat to declining and that is a far more accurate of a measurement
    > of real economic activity.
    > The BLS report is like the GDP report - easy to fudge to keep public
    > confidence from collapsing.
    > A flat GDP is like the eye of the hurricane. It feels good, but
    > the storm is not over. Sustainable aggregate demand is no where
    > in sight.
    Aug 9, 2009. 07:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Dry Plunges 17% as China Demand Slows [View article]
    Thanks for the link Charlie, I'm not sure that index shows much correlation with the BD index though.
    Aug 9, 2009. 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yet More Gruesome Employment Statistics [View article]
    Couldn't agree more wp, the much heralded rise of the service economy has been a disappointment to say the least.
    Jul 6, 2009. 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commercial Paper Continuing to Vanish [View article]

    I don't think I mentioned the phrase 'credit crisis' at all and crying wolf about it isn't the point of the post. I agree with your comments about corporates deleveraging and more closely aligning their funding needs to their business activities. My point is that a source of cheap, short-term funding has essentially dried up for a lot of businesses.

    The general deleveraging and higher cost of funds naturally lowers ROE and will bite into profit margins. The explosion in Commercial paper up to mid-07 should be seen as the anaomaly.
    Jun 21, 2009. 06:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Housing Leading a Recovery? [View article]
    Just to reiterate, this post is about the Australian Housing Market , NOT the US. For the record, I don't see any housing recovery underway in the US and with another wave of foreclosures set to his late this year early next, it's tough to get excited about a US housing recovery.
    Jun 16, 2009. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Housing Leading a Recovery? [View article]
    Hi guys,

    Approximately a third of my content is on Australia, I thought the term 'abs' which stands for the 'Australian Bureau of Statistics' might have given that away, apparently not.
    Jun 16, 2009. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment