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  • Still No Sign Of A Double-Dip Recession [View article]
    Actually, I would say that your assertion that

    "another recession at this juncture would fly in the face of a lot of historical evidence to the contrary."

    itself flies in the face of historical evidence. You need to be careful about the historical data sets you look at. In a post credit crisis world the fed funds rate is not going to tell you much, if you want to look at historical precedents for central bank interest rate policy post credit crisis take a look at Japan, loose monetary conditions did not prevent subsequent recessions. Better still, get a copy of Reinhart and Rogoff's "This time is different" for a more thorough analysis.

    Considerable tightening of the fed funds rate by itself is not a perfect indicator, witness the sharp tightening in the early to mid 90's. In fact there is no single indicator that gives perfect recession signals, that's why you need to look at an ensemble of indicators. John Hussman does exactly that and has been saying for at least a month that there currently exists a "syndrome of conditions" that have ONLY and ALWAYS been observed just to prior to or during recessions.

    Today the ECRI said unequivocally the US is in recession, they have never sounded a false alarm in more than 20 years. I called it in August:

    I was probably a little early. If your portfolio can't endure a further drop of 30% or more in the major indices over the coming 6 - 12 months you need to make a move today or on the next rally if you are feeling lucky.
    Sep 30, 2011. 07:32 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Go By ECRI, Recession Is A Done Deal [View article]
    Wolverine you are mistaken, ECRI did not predict a recession last year, in fact they did not buy into the double dip talk.
    Oct 1, 2011. 06:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Go By ECRI, Recession Is A Done Deal [View article]
    Dave, I'm talking about the US but your right to be concerned about the rest of the globe.
    Oct 1, 2011. 05:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The February Employment Report Was Good News [View article]
    Can't argue that February's report was good news Bob, but you might want to acknowledge that a significant portion of the 0.9 decrease in the unemployment rate in recent months has been due to a fall in the participation rate.
    Mar 6, 2011. 02:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commercial Paper Continuing to Vanish [View article]

    I don't think I mentioned the phrase 'credit crisis' at all and crying wolf about it isn't the point of the post. I agree with your comments about corporates deleveraging and more closely aligning their funding needs to their business activities. My point is that a source of cheap, short-term funding has essentially dried up for a lot of businesses.

    The general deleveraging and higher cost of funds naturally lowers ROE and will bite into profit margins. The explosion in Commercial paper up to mid-07 should be seen as the anaomaly.
    Jun 21, 2009. 06:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still No Sign Of A Double-Dip Recession [View article]
    Excellent comment Brian, Recession certainly hasn't been the consensus view, as of late August, 79% of money managers in the US were not expecting recession.
    Oct 1, 2011. 07:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cruising for a Correction? [View article]
    Actually I don't think it is a big omission, the inflation numbers are built into the earnings numbers and therefore the PE.
    May 3, 2010. 06:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Bernanke Should Not Be Reappointed [View article]
    Actually Tincho I agree with pretty much everything you said. I would prefer central banks were dissolved as well. However, you and I know that is not going to happen before January. Hence the idiotic article. If we are going to have central banks, lets have someone in charge who at least understands risk.

    On Aug 12 09:28 AM Tincho Sibileau wrote:

    > This article is idiocy. Central bankers, central banks, cannot avoid
    > bubbles. It is exactly what they are for: to create them. They do
    > not need to explicitly do so, for it is intrinsic in the mechanisms
    > of fiat money. WHY? Because monetary expansions are not neutral.
    > What do I mean? I mean that most of you believe in the exchange equation:
    > MV = PY, which assumes a neutral price level. The problem of inflation
    > is not that prices rise, but that they do not all rise simultaneously:
    > For instance, in this crisis, the transmission was: 1st higher mortgages,
    > 2nd higher commodities, 3rd higher equities, 4th higher corp bonds
    > and if this continues, higher capital expenditures, consumption AND
    > ONLY THEN consumer prices and wages. Inflation is a process, not
    > a mere stupid CPI reading, as we are taught at university. In each
    > step, it creates a bubble: First, in mortgages, then in commodities,
    > equities, treasuries etc. So, blaming the messenger is idiotic at
    > least. You don't want bubbles? Dissolve central banking altogether
    > worldwide!
    Aug 12, 2009. 09:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Go By ECRI, Recession Is A Done Deal [View article]
    Sharkieboy, what type of business do you own if you don't mind me asking?
    Oct 1, 2011. 05:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still No Sign Of A Double-Dip Recession [View article]
    Thanks for that qualification TFA but the message is still the same, whether the recession has already started or will start in October or November, you don't want to be long this market.
    Sep 30, 2011. 08:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Recession Coming ... It's Already Here [View article]
    It's a good point Seth. The evidence is on QE and it has been a consummate failure except for a transient boost in asset markets. Note that the stock market gains under QE2 how now been completely wiped out while creating higher commodity prices that hurt the poor at a time when they can least afford it.

    Like the realization that successive Interest rate cuts by the Fed during 2008 were ineffective, similarly investors are waking up to notion that QE is also ineffective.
    Aug 19, 2011. 06:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2010 Market Scorecard and a Look Ahead [View article]
    The short answer is, I don't know, nobody does. As usual the easy part is identifying the bubble, the hard part is the timing of the burst.
    Jan 2, 2011. 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $400: A Look at Apple's Fundamentals (Part II) [View article]
    PE ratios cannot be used to determine if a stock is over or undervalued. If you believe that the price of a stock and it's value are two separate things, how can you use price in the calculation of value?
    Aug 13, 2010. 04:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cruising for a Correction? [View article]

    Shiller's chart is inflation adjusted, you can check the data yourself at

    Ted you are exactly right, I understand the difference, my point was to show a high level of bullishness both with respect to the charts and investor sentiment.
    May 2, 2010. 07:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report: Waiting for Further Confirmation of Recession's End [View article]

    People like me do believe the recession is coming to an end and may have already ended in July or August but am not optimistic at all about a sustainable recovery. I think the dreaded double-dip or 'W' shaped recession is a real possibility in 2010-11

    On Aug 09 01:37 PM Schweizer wrote:

    > A lot of effort is being made via massive unproduction one-time goverment
    > borrowing and spending to get the GDP slightly positive for a quarter
    > or two so people like you can call the recession over.
    > The fact is that weekly railfax reports show that loaded rail units
    > is still flat to declining and that is a far more accurate of a measurement
    > of real economic activity.
    > The BLS report is like the GDP report - easy to fudge to keep public
    > confidence from collapsing.
    > A flat GDP is like the eye of the hurricane. It feels good, but
    > the storm is not over. Sustainable aggregate demand is no where
    > in sight.
    Aug 9, 2009. 07:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment